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Security Affairs
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ARMS CONTROL & DISARMAMENT
NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE TESTS AND THE SIX-PARTY TALKS: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Brookings Institution. Richard C. Bush. June 17, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 10 pages]
In testimony before Congress on June 17, Richard Bush describes how North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile tests have transformed the challenge faced by the international system. Dr. Bush testified that it is now clear that North Korea bases its security on nuclear weapons, and the hope that it will abandon the nuclear option has disappeared.
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DEFENSE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION GLOBAL PROGRAMS.
National Nuclear Security Administration. 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 1 page]
The global map shows different nonproliferation programs, ranging from plutonium production reactor shutdown to plutonium disposition, throughout the world.
NUCLEAR ABOLITION AND THE NEXT ARMS RACE.
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. April 21, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 37 pages]
The author looks at various scenarios on nuclear nonproliferation. According to the author, the concern is while Russia and the United States look to reduce nuclear weapons deployment and stockpiles, there is nuclear proliferation.
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NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: 1949-PRESENT.
Manhattan Project, U.S. Department of Energy]. 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]
The site looks at the history of nuclear proliferation since 1945.
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IN THE NEAR TERM TO STRENGTHEN THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME?
Council on Foreign Relations. Dennis Gormley et al. May 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]
Dennis Gormley, senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies/Monterey Institute of International Studies; Paul Lettow, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Lawrence Scheinman, distinguished professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies/Monterey Institute of International Studies; and Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center discuss the nonproliferation.
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DEFENSE POLICY
HOMELAND SECURITY
KEEP GITMO GOING: THE CASE FOR RETAINING THE VITAL DETENSION AND INTERROGATION FACILITY AT GUANTANOMO BAY.
Center for Security Policy. E. J. Kimball and Benjamin Lerner. May 28, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 9 pages]
The white paper identifies the national security, public safety, and legal and economic challenges associated with closing Guantánamo and transferring detainees to the United States or to foreign custody. Anywhere from 10-20 percent of the nearly 500 detainees released from Guantanamo have returned to the battlefield in some capacity, says the paper. These were the “benign” detainees, one can only imagine the rate of recidivism of the 240 hardened terrorists still detained at Guantánamo.
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MILITARY CIVILIAN RELATIONS
RECONSTRUCTION UNDER FIRE: UNIFYING CIVIL AND MILITARY COUNTERINSURGENCY.
RAND Corporation. David C. Gompert et al. June 15, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 159 pages]
Effective civilian relief, reconstruction, and development work can help convince people to support their government against insurgency. Knowing this, insurgents will target such work, threatening both those who perform it and those who benefit from it. The authors set out to learn how civilian counterinsurgency, civil COIN: essential human services, political reform, physical reconstruction, economic development, and indigenous capacity-building, could be conducted more safely in the face of active insurgency, when it can do the most good.
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POLITICAL STABILITY
HAMAS: IDEOLOGICAL RIGIDIY AND POLITICAL FLEXIBILITY.
U.S. Institute of Peace. Paul Scham and Osama Abu-Irshaid. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 24 pages]
Hamas's landslide victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections of January 2006 came as an unwelcome and unexpected shock to both Middle Eastern and international regimes, with the organization winning nearly 58 percent of the Palestinian Legislative Council seats. On the one hand, the authors make a case for recognizing that Hamas has, in certain respects, changed and has sent signals regarding its possible coexistence with Israel. On the other hand, they conclude that Hamas might never "recognize" Israel in the conventional sense and that, since Hamas apparently cannot be eliminated, attempts to engage it must take into account its commitment to the strictures of shari'a.
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IRAN AND THE CHALLENGES TO MIDDLE EAST SECURITY.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman et al. June 9, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 116 pages]
Iran presents a wide range of potential challenges to the security of the Middle East. This does not mean that Iran plans to start new conflicts in the region or will actively seek to achieve its objectives by force. At the same time, however, Iran is actively seeking to expand its influence, and is now the most serious threat to the security of energy exports in the Gulf region, says the report.
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GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2009.
Institute for Economics & Peace. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 64 pages]
The global economic recession and an increase in violent conflict and political instability around the planet have taken a toll on world peacefulness in 2008, according to the 2009 Global Peace Index (GPI). The results of the 2009 GPI show that as the global economy headed into recession in 2008, many of the indicators used by the GPI to measure peace, such as the likelihood of violent demonstrations and political instability, increased, while others, such as respect for human rights, decreased. Iceland presented one of several examples of the links between the global economic crisis and a decline in peacefulness. The country, which topped the 2008 GPI, fell to fourth place this year after its economy collapsed.
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AA09185
Kang, David C. KIM III (National Interest, web exclusive, posted May 28, 2009)
Full Text [HTML format]
According to the author, director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California, North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile tests have been conducted as much for domestic reasons as to send messages to the United States. Kim Jong-Il’s poor health has led to internal maneuvering over the succession, and there is no clear heir. This uncertainly has led to a lack of both long-term planning and strategic vision within the governing class and an incentive for nationalistic activities by the various factions. Kang believes that the Obama administration has responded properly by not overreacting, since bellicose rhetoric from the United States would only benefit hardliners in Pyongyang.
TERRORISTS & TERRORISM
NARCO-TERRORISM IN PERU: THE RETURN OF SHINING PATH.
Heritage Foundation.
James M. Roberts and Edwar Enrique Escalante. June 9, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]
Peru is a good friend of the United States and needs U.S. help to defeat this new challenge in dealing with drug related terrorism, according to the report. Consequently, President Obama should direct the establishment of a U.S.-Peru partnership. Congress should provide emergency funding for this partnership and also help Peru by approving pending U.S. free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, which, along with the recently approved agreement with Peru, will strengthen U.S. ties to--and the economy of--the Andean region. The U.S. and Peruvian governments should not underestimate the problems posed by the re-emergence of Shining Path, concludes the report.
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BEYOND BULLETS: STRATEGIES FOR COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM.
Center for a New American Security. Alice e. Hunt et al. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 127 pages]
To counter the threat from violent Islamist extremism more effectively, the Center for a New American Security launched a strategy development process modeled after President Eisenhower’s Project Solarium. The editors asked five experts to recast the effort to defeat al-Qaeda in sustainable terms consistent with American values. The result is a series of essays, produced in this report, that recommend a rich array of counterterrorism tools and strategies for the new administration.
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AA09203
Fosson, Adam CONFLUENCE OF EVIL: THE SMUGGLING-TERRORISM NEXUS (HSToday, vol. 5, no. 12, December 2008, pp. 24-29)
Full Text [HTML format]
There is a growing connection between counterfeit consumer items, tobacco smuggling, narcotics trafficking and foreign terrorist organizations. This is because terrorism takes a large investment and these illegal operations provide sources of cash. The sustainability of these income sources is also crucial to jihadists because they perceive their jihad as a long-term fight. The merging of terrorist organizations and groups that carry out illegal activities makes them even more dangerous as each gains more skill sets and improves their capabilities. In order to stay ahead of both groups, American initiatives must evolve and expand to collect and share information both internally and abroad.
MILITARY & DEFENSE
AN ANALYSIS OF THE ARMY’S TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMS AND POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES.
Congressional Budge Office. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 77 pages]
The Army has initiated two programs designed to transform itself from a force focused on fighting the Cold War to one better designed to face the challenges of the 21st century. Those two programs, the Modularity Initiative and the Future Combat Systems (FCS) pro- gram, would change the way the Army is organized and equipped, respectively. The study considers the near- and long-term implications of those two programs. It also examines three alternatives for modernizing the Army’s combat forces using modified versions of the FCS program and estimates the costs and savings of those options as well as their effects on the Army’s ability to introduce new technologies into its combat brigades.
LONG MARCH: BUILDING AN AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY.
RAND Corporation. Obaid Younossi et al. May 28, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 85 pages]
The Afghan National Army (ANA) is critical to the success of the allied efforts in Afghanistan and the ultimate stability of the national government. The monograph assesses the ANA's progress in the areas of recruitment, training, facilities, and operational capability. It draws on a variety of sources: in-country interviews with U.S., NATO, and Afghan officials; data provided by the U.S. Army; open-source literature; and a series of public opinion surveys conducted in Afghanistan over the past several years. Although the ANA has come a long way since the outset of the recent conflict in the country, the authors conclude that coalition forces, especially those of the United States, will play a crucial role in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, particularly in light of the increased threat from Taliban forces and other illegally armed criminal groups.
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ALTERNATIVES FOR MODERNIZING U.S. FIGHTER FORCES.
Congressional Budget Office. May 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 73 pages]
The United States Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps are in the process of replacing most of today’s fighter aircraft with new F/A-18E/F, F-22, and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) aircraft. Although procurement plans call for purchasing about 2,500 aircraft over the next 25 years, the services are projecting that those purchases will be unable to keep pace with the need to retire today’s aircraft as they reach the limit of their service life. The study compares the size and capability of today’s forces with the forces that would be fielded under the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) modernization plans and several alternative plans that would offer varying levels of capability and require varying levels of budgetary commitment.