Embassy of the United States

Security Affairs

Political Stability Archive

 

CONGO: FIVE PRIORITIES FOR A PEACEBUILDING STRATEGY.
International Crisis Group. May 11, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 33 pages]

According to the author, the dire situation in the Kivus region of Congo will not improve without a comprehensive strategy of sustained political and results-oriented partnership between the government and the international community.

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OCCUPYING IRAQ: A HISTORY OF THE COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY.
RAND Corporation. James Dobbins et al. May 12, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 412 pages]

The American engagement in Iraq has been looked at from many perspectives, the flawed intelligence that provided the war's rationale, the failed effort to secure an international mandate, the rapid success of the invasion, and the long ensuing counterinsurgency campaign. The book focuses on the activities of the Coalition Provisional Authority and its administrator, L. Paul Bremer, who governed Iraq from May 2003 to June of the following year. The book recounts and evaluates the efforts of the United States and its coalition partners to restore public services, reform the judicial and penal systems, fight corruption, revitalize the economy, and create the basis for representative government.

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WINNING THE INFORMATION WAR IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN.
Council on Foreign Relations. Greg Bruno. May 11, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]

With overwhelming firepower, Western armies rarely lose in combat to Taliban fighters in Afghanistan. But in the communications battle, the militants appear to hold the edge. The paper explores the U.S. efforts to mount a “strategic communications” counterattack on the Afghanistan-Pakistan front.

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NORTH KOREA, INC. vU.S. Institute of Peace. John S. Park. May 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 27 pages]

Assessing regime stability in North Korea continues to be a major challenge for analysts. By examining how the web of state trading companies affiliated to the Korean Workers’ Party, the Korean People’s Army, and the Cabinet operates, the author develops a new framework for gauging regime stability.

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REVERSAL IN IRAQ.
Council on Foreign Relations. Stephen Biddle. May 14, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 12 pages]

Iraq is currently in the early stages of a negotiated end to an intense ethno sectarian war. As such, there are several contingencies in which recent, mostly positive trends in Iraq could be reversed, threatening U.S. national interests. The author assesses four interrelated scenarios in Iraq that could derail the prospects for peace and stability in the short to medium term and posits concrete policy options to limit U.S. vulnerability to the possibility of such reversals.

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AFGHANISTAN: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. April 21, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 37 pages]
e-Supplement [PDF format, 6 pages]

The United States has provided approximately $38.6 billion in reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan and has over 35,000 troops in the country as of February 2009. Some progress has occurred in areas such as economic growth, infrastructure development, and training of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), but the overall security situation in Afghanistan has not improved after more than 7 years of U.S. and international efforts. In response, the new administration plans to deploy approximately 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan this year, and has completed a strategic review of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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GAZA’S UNFINISHED BUSINESS.
International Crisis Group. April 23, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 62 pages]

The Israel-Hamas war has ended but none of the factors that triggered it have been addressed. Three months after unilateral ceasefires, Gaza’s crossings are largely shut, reconstruction and rehabilitation have yet to begin and Palestinians are deeply divided. The status quo is unsustainable, and Gaza once again is an explosion waiting to happen, says the author.

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MILITARY POWER OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA 2009.
U.S. Department of Defense. Web posted March 26, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 78 pages]

China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence has significant implications for the Asia-Pacific region and the world, says the report. The United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China, and encourages China to participate responsibly in world affairs by taking on a greater share of the burden for the stability, resilience, and growth of the international system. The United States has done much over the last 30 years to encourage and facilitate China’s national development and its integration into the international system. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, particularly regarding how its expanding military power might be used.

 

ENDING COLOMBIA’S FARC CONFLICT: DEALING THE RIGHT CARD.
International Crisis Group. March 26, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 38 pages]

Latin America’s oldest guerrilla organization, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is under severe stress. Close to seven years of the Uribe presidency have hurt the FARC’s capability and morale. Thousands of foot soldiers have deserted, bringing the guerrillas’ troop strength down by almost half, to perhaps 10,000 today. Still, under its new leader, Alfonso Cano, the FARC has shown renewed internal cohesion and continued capacity to adapt to changes in the security environment. The report recommends that president Uribe should keep military pressure up but emphasize devising a political strategy capable of drawing a weakened but still largely intact FARC into peace talks.

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THE NORTH KOREAN PARADOX AND THE SUBVERSIVE TRUTH.
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Andrei Lankov. March 3, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 5 pages]

Lankoy says North Korea must be transformed from within. Neither sanctions nor direct engagement will work. What is needed is an effort to increase contacts between North Korea and the outside world through cultural and educational exchanges and through economic cooperation that exposes North Koreans to South Koreans and their vastly better way of life. Further, the author believes increased radio and video penetration combined with support for defectors who can aid the transformation when the Kim Jong Il regime ends will also be necessary.

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MAPPING PEACE BETWEEN SYRIA AND ISRAEL.
U.S. Institute of Peace. Frederic C. Hof. March 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 20 pages]

The report provides ideas on facilitating a Syrian-Israel Peace. It comes out at a critical time in the Arab-Israeli peace process as a new U.S. administration is looking for ways to move the process forward despite the recent violence in Gaza. In the report, Fred Hof, lays out a roadmap for how to resolve the thorny issues separating Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights plateau and small tracts in the Jordan River Valley. Hof’s study focuses on creative ways and means to reconcile Syria’s boundary demand with legitimate Israeli concerns. A key element is elaboration on the concept of a Jordan Valley-Golan Heights Environmental Preserve, which attracted attention during earlier peace talks.

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HAITI 2009: STABILITY AT RISK.
International Crisis Group. March 3, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 16 pages]

A series of crises in 2008 have increased the potential for serious trouble in Haiti this year. The politically motivated, violent April riots against high living costs caused widespread disruption and suffering, toppled the government of Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis and forced postponement of a donor conference. In August and September, four tropical storms and hurricanes killed 800, affected nearly one million, exacerbated food shortages and pushed yet more Haitians into poverty. Extensive damage was caused to infrastructure and agriculture. The global financial crisis is making it difficult for donors to meet commitments.

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AA09124
O’Hanlon, Michael TOWARD RECONCILIATION IN AFGHANISTAN (Washington Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 2, April 2009, pp. 139-147)
Full Text [PDF format; 9 pages]

The author, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, provides interesting insight into the situation in Afghanistan. Although the security situation is deteriorating, the level of civilian violence is relatively modest compared to Congo, Iraq, Colombia, Russia, South Africa, and Mexico. Kidnappings are frequent, roads are unsafe, and opium production has increased. However, there are also positive signs -- large numbers of refugees have returned, a higher percentage of children are in school (especially girls) and childhood immunizations have reached nearly 70 percent. Telephone access is widespread, inflation is in check and GDP growth has been about 10 percent per year. O’Hanlon believes that success is possible in Afghanistan, but a new approach is needed. Security forces need to be increased to around 600,000, but current plans call for only half that (including some 60,000 Americans). The concept of “clear, hold, and build” should continue, but the overall development strategy needs to be improved, making better use of local communities in programs such as the one used by the World Food Programme, through which local groups provide security and oversee equitable distribution of food delivered by the WFP. Important progress is possible through sustained attention and resources from the international community in partnership with Afghan patriots and reformers.

 

AA09105
Kaplan, Robert CENTER STAGE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: POWER PLAYS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN (Foreign Affairs, vol. 88, no. 2, March-April 2009)
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According to Kaplan, a national correspondent for Atlantic Monthly magazine, the Indian Ocean is central to understanding geopolitics in the 21st century. “It combines the centrality of Islam with global energy politics and the rise of India and China to reveal a multilayered, multipolar world,” he says. Already the world’s most important passageway for trade of energy and other goods, the Indian Ocean will become even more crucial. As rivalry intensifies between India’s and China’s economies and between their expanding navies, the U.S. Navy, its power declining, will have to manage the peace in the Indian Ocean. While the United States leans on India’s navy in the Indian Ocean and Japan’s navy in the Pacific to limit China’s expansion, it will at the same time have to lead incorporation of China’s navy into international alliances in order to attain global political stability. Lacking the singular threat of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the U.S. military will need to become more flexible and build shifting alliances to respond to many different types of crises in the “weak governments and tottering infrastructure” lining the Indian Ocean from Somalia to Pakistan to Burma.

HOW SOON IS SAFE?: IRAQI FORCE DEVELOPMENT AND CONDITIONS-BASED U.S. WITHDRAWALS.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam Mausner. February 19, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 205 pages]

The U.S. and Iraq now face a transition period that may well be as challenging as defeating the insurgency, Al Qa’ida in Iraq, and the threat from militias like the Mahdi Army. These challenges are described in the status report on the tensions that divide Iraq, and the continuing threats that Iraq faces internally and from its neighbors. These issues are addressed, detailing the continued development of the Iraqi Security Forces, their strengths and weaknesses, and the problems and prospects of future force development.

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SECURING, STABILIZING, AND DEVELOPING PAKISTAN’S BORDER AREA WITH AFGHANISTAN.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. Web posted February 23, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 61 pages]

Since 2002, destroying the terrorist threat and closing the terrorist safe haven along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan have been key national security goals. The United States has provided Pakistan, an important ally in the war on terror, with more than $12.3 billion for a variety of activities, in part to address these goals. As the United States considers how it will go forward with efforts to assist Pakistan in securing, stabilizing, and developing its FATA and Western Frontier bordering Afghanistan, it is vital that efforts to develop a comprehensive plan using all elements of national power be completed and that continued oversight and accountability over funds used for these efforts are in place.

 

IRAQ, ITS NEIGHBORS, AND THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: SYRIAN AND SAUDI PERSPECTIVES.
U.S. Institute of Peace and the Stimson Center. February 9, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 21 pages]

According to the report, the top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamic militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions.

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SECURING AFGHANISTAN: GETTING ON TRACK.
U.S. Institute of Peace. C. Christine Fair and Seth G. Jones. Web posted February 17, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 42 pages]

The comprehensive analysis of international security assistance shows many donors have not met their Afghan commitments. A lack of focus on long-term sustainability, an inability to map the entirety of donor nations’ security assistance programs and the subsequent failure on the part of the international community to understand precisely what is needed in Afghanistan are among the leading reasons why international stabilization efforts in the country have not been more successful over the last seven years, says the report.

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NEPAL’S FALTERING PEACE PROCESS.
International Crisis Group. February 19, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 45 pages]

Despite successful elections and a lasting military ceasefire, Nepal’s peace process is facing its most severe tests yet. Major issues remain unresolved: there is no agreement on the future of the two armies, very little of the land seized during the conflict has been returned, and little progress has been made writing a new constitution. The report recommends that Nepal’s political leaders must urgently rebuild collaborative spirit and recommit themselves to seeing through the process.

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HUGO CHAVEZ: A LAME DUCK NO MORE.
Brookings Institution. Kevin Casas-Zamora. February 18, 2009.
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Having just celebrated his first decade in power, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez is here to stay. On February 15, he achieved a famous victory in the referendum that he had called to scrap the term limits that would have forced him to relinquish power in 2012. The length and severity of the current economic downturn, and the ability of the opposition to coalesce around a credible leader, will largely determine whether Chavez will ride on to another victory in 2012.

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REVITALIZING THE TRANSATLANTIC SECURITY PARTNERSHIP: AN AGENDA FOR ACTION.
RAND Corporation. F. Stephen Larrabee and Julian Lindley-French. Web posted February 5, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 48 pages]

During the course of 2008, the RAND Corporation and the Bertelsmann Foundation's Venusberg Group sponsored a series of U.S.-European discussions examining future security challenges confronting the United States and Europe in the context of the election of a new American president. The report refers to those discussions and seeks to define the substance and parameters of a new security partnership between the United States and Europe as well as to outline an agenda for action for the new partnership.

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IRAN AND THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN.
Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations. Greg Bruno and Lionel Beehner. February 6, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]

In crafting a new approach to the war in Afghanistan, U.S. military and political leaders say Iran could play a key role. Despite ongoing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and allegations of arming militants in the region, Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in the region, says Washington and Iran could coalesce around stabilizing Afghanistan. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed the sentiment. NATO partners, too, have sought to include Iran in Afghan strategy decisions. German lawmakers have called for the creation of a "contact group" of nations to chart a new regional course. "Such an initiative, that would include Iran, would benefit if it came to direct talks between Washington and Tehran," Andreas Schockenhoff, vice chairman of Germany's Christian Democratic Party, said in a statement reported by German media.

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RADICAL ISLAM IN EAST AFRICA.
RAND Corporation. Angel Rabasa. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 111 pages]

While al Qaeda is the primary terrorist/extremist threat in East Africa, the region suffers more broadly from a danger of radical Islamist groups and organizations that the United States and its allies must address to reshape the region’s security environment, according to the study. Numerous indigenous radical Islamist groups with varying degrees of affinity to al Qaeda’ agenda also populate the region. Of particular concern is the radical Shabaab militia in Somalia that has regrouped and intensified its operations in the wake of the Ethiopian occupation of Mogadishu.

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AA09064
Glasser, Susan THE GENERAL’S NEXT WAR (Foreign Policy, no. 170, January-February 2009, pp. 48-50)
Full Text [HTML format]

Foreign Policy executive editor Susan Glasser interviewed General David Petraeus shortly after he assumed control of the U.S. Central Command. He told her that the challenges of Afghanistan cannot be addressed adequately without also addressing Pakistan’s requirements. Nations that want to help Afghanistan, the general said, should look well beyond the region to include India, Iran, China and Russia. Speaking as a military strategist, Petraeus said the tactics and procedures that were used in Iraq successfully cannot be imported wholesale to Afghanistan. For one thing, Afghans are not able to watch television like the Iraqis and Afghanistan doesn’t have the literacy rate of Iraq. He advocates communicating with the Afghans via local radio broadcasts, tribal elders and shura councils. He also emphasized the importance of creating a climate to promote reconciliation in Afghanistan, although it will likely be a different process than that which was employed in Iraq.

 

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Yaphe, Judith CHALLENGES TO PERSIAN GULF SECURITY: HOW SHOULD THE UNITED STATES RESPOND? (Strategic Forum, No. 237, November 2008, pp. 1-8)
Full Text [PDF format; 8 pages]

Yaphe, Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, asserts that Persian Gulf security challenges will increasingly pose difficult choices for the next administration. Iran’s quest for regional preeminence, driven by deeply ingrained impulses of exceptionalism and self-sufficiency, will not slacken any time soon. Seeing such preeminence as its historic prerogative, Tehran still seeks a military posture, including nuclear capability, that matches that vision. The U.S. faces three challenges in the Gulf; the toughest challenge by far is whether to engage Iran and, if so, how. The risks of doing so are not trivial, but there is also common ground to be claimed, especially on achieving a stable Iraq. The second is what posture to take on reform within the Gulf states. Internal pressures for reform are growing, yet a heavy-handed approach can trigger local cynicism of U.S. motives and charges of double standards. The third challenge is how to build cooperation between the Gulf states and Iraq. Strengthening borders and redeveloping economic and security linkages can be a positive start for better relations, but lingering suspicions will be hard to overcome.

 

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Sick, Gary THE REPUBLIC AND THE RAHBAR (National Interest, no. 99, January/February 2009, pp. 10-20)
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The author, professor of international affairs at Columbia University, writes that Iran is not the most dangerous or pressing problem the Obama administration faces in the Persian Gulf region. Iran’s ascendancy in recent years was largely an “unearned gift” from the U.S. dispersal of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. He notes that the Tehran regime is a “largely unpopular and dysfunctional government headed by a firebrand populist president with limited power,” and is riven with competing factions. The Iranian economy is in a shambles, with inflation running at an annual rate of 25 percent and widespread unemployment, and a government committed to massive domestic subsidies. After two decades, Iran still has only one non-functional nuclear reactor and a slow-motion enrichment program. Sick argues that Iran’s ability to project military power outside its borders is overrated, although its internal defenses are impressive. He believes that the new administration’s softening of the U.S. stance toward Iran would be recognized by the Tehran regime as an offer to move away from the current antagonism.

 

MEASURING STABILITY AND SECURITY IN IRAQ: DECEMBER 2008.
U.S. Department of Defense. January 14, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 68 pages]

A major evolution in the strategic partnership between the United States and Iraq, which is defined by the Strategic Framework and Status of Forces Agreements ratified by the Presidency Council on December 8, 2008, is underway. The Council of Representatives’ (CoR) approval of these agreements demonstrates the growing maturity of the Iraqi political system and is testimony to the democratic development of Iraq.

 

AA09017
Kaplan, Robert IRAN’S POSTMODERN BEAST IN GAZA (Atlantic online, January 5, 2009)
Full Text [HTML format]

According to Kaplan, Gaza, where the mullahs of Teheran hold considerable power, now constitutes the western edge of Iran’s “new empire.”  Hamas, even if it loses against the Israelis, he says, will be able to achieve a moral victory of sorts. And, if Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement tries to replace Hamas in power, it will be tagged as “an Israeli stooge” in the eyes of Palestinians.

 

HAMAS AND ISRAEL: CONFLICTING STRATEGIES OF GROUP-BASED POLITICS.
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Sherifa Zuhur. December 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 107 pages]

Efforts to separate HAMAS from its popular support and network of social and charitable organizations have not been effective in destroying the organization, nor in eradicating the will to resist among a fairly large segment of the Palestinian population. According to the author, it is important to consider this Islamist movement in the context of a region-wide phenomenon of similar movements with local goals, which can be persuaded to relinquish violence or which could become more violent. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict bears similarities to a long-standing civil conflict, even as it has sparked inter-Palestinian hostilities in its most recent phase.

 

HOW SOON IS SAFE?: IRAQI FORCE DEVELOPMENT AND “CONDITIONS-BASED” US WITHDRAWALS.
Center for Strategic International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam Mausner. December 1, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 185 pages]

The U.S. and Iraq now face a transition period that may well be as challenging as defeating the insurgency, Al Qa’ida in Iraq, and the threat from militias like the Mahdi Army. A combination of Iraq’s internal politics and outside pressure from nations like Iran has created serious tensions between the U.S. and Iraqi government over the status of U.S. forces and the timetable for US withdrawal. Iraqi politics and public opinion see the U.S. as an occupation force. Iraq's Kurds are the only group in Iraq that showed a consistent desire for the US to stay. The history of states facing a predicament similar to Iraq's present position, however, shows that time and patience can be critical assets.

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PACIFIC CURRENTS: THE RESPONSES OF U.S. ALLIES AND SECURITY PARTNERS IN EAST ASIA TO CHINA’S RISE.
RAND Corporation. Evan S. Medeiros et al. Web posted November 24, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 309 pages]

China’s economic, military, and diplomatic power has been on the rise, and many worry that it is nudging aside U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The authors examine six specific U.S. allies and partners: Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. They examine the responses in each nation to China’s rise and assessed the implications for U.S. regional security interests. The six nations see China primarily as a source of economic opportunity, but many have concerns about China’s regional goals. They want China to be engaged regionally in productive ways but do not want to allow it to become dominant. They find U.S. security commitments reassuring, bolstering their ability to engage China with confidence.

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STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT ON AGREEMENTS WITH IRAQ.
Office of Press Secretary, White House. November 30, 2008.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]
Strategic Framework Agreement [PDF format, 8 pages]
Security Agreement [PDF format, 24 pages]

Iraq’s Council of Representatives approved two agreements with the United States, a Strategic Framework Agreement and a Security Agreement, often called a Status of Forces Agreement or SOFA. The Strategic Framework Agreement sets the foundation for a long-term bilateral relationship between our two countries, and the Security Agreement addresses our presence, activities, and withdrawal from Iraq.

 

THE TIPPING POINT?: ORG INTERNATIONAL SECURITY REPORT 2008.
Oxford Research Group. Paul Rogers. November 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 12 pages]

The report examines international security trends in relation to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the al-Qaida movement, East-West relations after the Russian intervention in Georgia, and the probable security impact of the international economic downturn. The analysis is in the context of the U.S. Presidential Election result. The global economic downturn is the biggest single threat to security across the world. On present trends many hundreds of millions of people among the poorest communities across the world will suffer most. This is likely to lead to the rise of radical and violent social movements, which will be controlled by force, further increasing the violence.

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Ganguly, Sumit NUCLEAR STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA (International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2, Fall 2008, pp. 45-70)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington, asserts that an examination of the 1999 and 2001–02 crises between India and Pakistan suggests that nuclear deterrence is robust in South Asia. Even though the 1999 crisis erupted into a war, its scope and dimensions were carefully circumscribed. Despite its conventional capabilities, India chose not to cross the Line of Control (the de facto international border in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir), and it avoided escalation of the conflict. India’s restraint cannot be attributed either to timely U.S. intervention or to a concern about avoiding a bellicose international image. Instead, a highly jingoistic regime, which had defied international public opinion the previous year through a series of nuclear tests, chose to exercise restraint because of Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons. In 2001, despite grave Pakistani provocation through a series of terrorist attacks, India could only respond with a strategy of coercive diplomacy.

 

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Lischer, Sarah Kenyon SECURITY AND DISPLACEMENT IN IRAQ: RESPONDING TO THE FORCED MIGRATION CRISIS (International Security, Vol. 33, no. 2, Fall 2008, pp. 95-119)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, professor of political science at Wake Forest University, notes that since the 2006 bombing of the al-Askari Mosque, 4.5 million Iraqis have fled their homes, and displacement has become a central strategy in the civil war. Militant groups have engineered these colossal population movements to consolidate their power and expand their territorial claims. As this crisis demonstrates, displacement can expand and intensify violence during a civil war. In addition, refugee flows increase the risk that conflict will spread across international borders. In some cases, refugee militarization can lead to international war and regional destabilization. Even if the displaced Iraqis do not join militant groups, their mere presence will exacerbate political tensions. To prevent the wide-scale militarization of the displaced Iraqis, Lischer writes that donors and host states should provide a massive infusion of humanitarian aid; resist the temptation to build camps to house the displaced; refrain from repatriating the displaced against their will; and expedite the resettlement process, especially for vulnerable Iraqis such as those who were once coalition employees.

 

PARTNERSHIP FOR PROGRESS: ADVANCING A NEW STRATEGY FOR PROSPERITY AND STABILITY IN PAKISTAN AND THE REGION.
Center for American Progress. Caroline Wadhams et al. Web posted November 17, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 80 pages]

Pakistan lies at the nexus of one the world’s most complicated geopolitical regions, one plagued by poverty, nuclear proliferation, and global terrorism. With a growing population of more than 165 million people, Pakistan is a vital link between South and Central Asia and the broader Middle East. Pakistan’s multiple internal challenges extend beyond its borders and have a wide-ranging impact on regional and global stability. Just as conditions in Afghanistan, India, Iran, and Central Asian countries affect Pakistan, events in Pakistan shape its neighbors.

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CAPACITY SURVEY: REGIONAL AND OTHER INTERGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE MAINTENANCE OF PEACE AND SECURITY 2008.
United Nations University. November 10, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 159 pages]

The study is the first global survey of the capacities of all regional organizations in the field of peace of security, conflict prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, enforcement, and peace-building. Over the last decade, regional organizations have been empowered by the United Nations and national governments concurrently to maintain peace and security. The Survey maps out, in a comparative and descriptive fashion, their history, capacities and operational experience.

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CHINESE NATIONAL STRATEGY OF TOTAL WAR.
Air University Research Information Management System. Michael J. Good. Web posted October 26, 2008.
Full Text [Website, click to view PDF format, 66 pages]

The recent trends in the growth of China’s national power across all elements are analyzed to determine if there is an underlying national strategy based on the Chinese concept of total warfare. The research seeks to determine if China is currently engaged in a total war with the United States across nontraditional forms of conflict including economic, political, information, financial, cyber, and industrial warfare. The results indicate that China does possess a long term national strategy for engagement in a total war with the United States consistent with Chinese military strategy, and is actively pursuing this strategy across all elements of national power.

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STABILITY IN RUSSIA’S CHECHNYA AND OTHER REGIONS OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS.
Congressional Research Service, RL34613, Library of Congress. Jim Nichol. Web posted August 20, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

There reportedly have been increasingly frequent small-scale attacks against Russian government targets in the North Caucasus. Many ethnic Russian and other non-native civilians have been murdered or have disappeared, which has spurred the migration of most of the non- native population from the North Caucasus. The United States generally has supported the Russian government’s efforts to combat terrorism in the North Caucasus. However, there are also concerns about the wide scope of human rights abuses committed by the Russian government in the North Caucasus.

 

U.S. 'WINNING 'UNPOPULAR WAR IN IRAQ, BUT 'LOSING' POPULAR WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.
Anthony H. Cordesman (Interviewee). Council on Foreign Relations,  September 8, 2008
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"None of us knows what is going to take place in the course of the next year"does not seem to suggest much certainty about in developments in Iraq. Anthony H. Cordesman, an expert on military affairs in the Middle East from the the Center for International and Strategic Studies, says that although "substantial progress" has been achieved in the last eighteen months in Iraq, there are enough political questions remaining, however, to leave the future open to question and that, ultimately, security will depend on political accommodation and economic development, not on continued military intervention. What is certain is that the process will certainly take time, as all political solutions do. Afganistan, on the other hand, requires an immediate increase in military presence to deal with the Taliban build up. "Are we at this point losing the war in Afghanistan? The answer is clearly yes.", says Cordesman. Outspoken on these issues and clearly annoyed by the statements made by the presidential candidates which he regards as sloganeering, he offers a refreshingly frank and realistic assessment of present situation and the way forward.   

Previous interviews with Cordesman on these issue issues:
 Despite Gains, Future in Iraq, Afghanistan Remains ‘Uncertain’ (January 14, 2008)
U.S. Making ‘Major’ Security Gains in Iraq but Needs to Stay for Years to Come (February 14, 2008)

 

RUSSIA-GEORGIA CONFLICT IN SOUTH OSSETIA: CONTEXT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. INTERESTS.
Congressional Research Service, RL34618, Library of Congress. Jim Nichol. August 13, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

In the early 1990s, Georgia and its breakaway South Ossetia region had agreed to a Russian-mediated ceasefire agreement that provided for Russian “peacekeepers” to be stationed in the region. Long-time tensions erupted on August 7, 2008, when South Ossetia and Georgia accused each other of launching intense artillery barrages against each other. Russia launched large-scale air attacks across Georgia and dispatched seasoned troops to South Ossetia that engaged Georgian forces in Tskhinvali later in the day. On August 12, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden warned Russia that its aggression in Georgia jeopardized Congressional support for legislation to collaborate with Russia on nuclear energy production and to repeal the Jackson-Vanik conditions on U.S. trade with Russia.

 

THE LOOMING CRISIS: DISPLACEMENT AND SECURITY IN IRAQ.
Brookings Institute. Elizabeth G. Ferris. August 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 53 pages]

Lost in discussions of the military surge, the pace of troop draw downs, and political benchmarks are millions of displaced Iraqi women, children, and men. Their plight is both a humanitarian tragedy and a strategic crisis that is not being addressed. The U.S. administration officials may acknowledge it as an important issue but lack a serious long-term plan to address the crisis. Present and future Iraqi displacement has the potential to change the Middle East landscape in unpredictably adverse ways. But if the U.S. government, the U.N. system, and the non-governmental world do not think strategically about Iraqi displacement, the implications for security in the region could be equally far-reaching.

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AA08285
Sigal, Leon V. A WAR WITHOUT END (World Policy Journal, vol. 24, no. 3, Fall 2007, pp. 1-7)
Full Text (EbscoHost; password required)

Sigal, with the Social Science Research Council in New York, examines the war in Iraq, and specifically at exit strategies for the U.S. He finds little in America’s historical experience with war termination that prepares it for ending the war in Iraq. For the U.S., the costs of exiting Iraq without ending the war will be great, but America will have to bear those costs eventually. He believes that at this point, the U.S. should not prolong a fight it cannot finish; the Iraqis themselves will have to end this war and reconcile with each other.

 

INTEGRATED SECURITY ASSISTANCE: THE 1207 PROGRAM.
U.S. Institute of Peace. Robert M. Perito. July 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

`Section 1207 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of FY 2006 and FY 2007 authorized the Department of Defense (DOD) to provide up to $200 million over two years in funds, services, and defense articles to the State Department (DOS) for security, reconstruction, and stabilization. The DOD transferred over $99 million in Section 1207 assistance to the DOS to fund projects in Haiti ($20m), Somalia ($25m), Nepal ($10m), Colombia ($4m), trans-Sahara Africa ($15m), Yemen ($8.8m), and Southeast Asia ($16.9m).

 

AA08249
Jones, Seth HOW TO SAVE KARZAI (Foreign Policy, web exclusive, posted July 2008)
Full Text [html format]

The author, a political scientist at Rand and professor at Georgetown University, writes that Afghan president Hamid Karzai may not be a leader in the mold of George Washington, but “with Afghanistan growing more chaotic by the day, now is no time to throw Hamid Karzai under the bus.” Almost seven years after the coalition invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban and other insurgents are gaining ground, there is endemic corruption in the government, the drug trade has never been higher, and most Afghans are without basic services. This bleak situation has led to calls for the U.S. and its allies to support someone else in the 2009 presidential election. This would be a mistake, says Jones -- Karzai, with all his faults, is still “the best Afghanistan’s political class has to offer.” As a Pashtun, he enjoys broad multiethnic support and is the country’s most popular leader. His greatest need is an effective and loyal police force, and he needs to act to reduce corruption. But he is concerned that a crackdown will worsen the insurgency. Pakistani support for insurgents must be addressed multilaterally, with political, military, and economic synchronization. “Giving up on Karzai will only weaken an already weak state. That is in no one’s interest, except perhaps the Taliban’s.”

 

AA08254
Talmadge, Caitlin CLOSING TIME: ASSESSING THE IRANIAN THREAT TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ (International Security, vol. 33, no. 1, Summer 2008, pp: 82-118)
Full Text [pdf format, 36 pages]

The author, with the political science department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, contemplates how Iran might retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike; the most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order-of-battle data, as well as relevant material from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. The author asserts that if Iran were able to properly coordinate its efforts, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States. Talmadge believes that the aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

 

REPORT ON PROGRESS TOWARD SECURITY AND STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN. [U.S. Department of Defense].
Web posted July 5, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 73 pages]

The U.S. commitment to Afghanistan is unwavering. Success in Afghanistan is both crucial to global security and is a moral responsibility. Achieving that success will take time, effort, resources, and the sustained interest and commitment of the international community. Moreover, success will never be achieved through military means alone, but through a comprehensive approach that involves all elements of power: military, diplomatic, and economic. Above all, it will require a sustained effort to continue to develop the capacity of the Afghans themselves.

 

SECURING PAKISTAN’S TRIBAL BELT.
Council on Foreign Relations. Daniel Markey. July 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 78 pages]

Pakistan is the world’s second-most populous Muslim-majority country, with nearly 170 million people. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and history of abetting proliferation put it in a position to dilute global efforts to stem the spread of nuclear materials and weapons. And it is host to local extremist groups, the Taliban, and global terrorist organizations, most notably al-Qaeda. The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has long been characterized by cooperation and recrimination alike. Pakistan is a strategic friend of the United States, but one that often appears unable or unwilling to address a number of vexing security concerns.

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QUICKLY, CAREFULLY, AND GENEROUSLY: THE NECESSARY STEPS FOR A RESPONSIBLE WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ.
Report of the Task Force for a Responsible Withdrawal from Iraq. June 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 34 pages]

Iraq is a traumatized and politically fragmented country. Neighboring states may be tempted to intervene in Iraq’s internal conflicts to protect their own interests. The United States and the international community bear a responsibility to contribute to the alleviation of suffering and the advancement of stability and peace in Iraq. It was the consensus of the expert Advisory Group that there is little the United States can do to achieve those goals as long as it maintains an open-ended military presence in Iraq. In the context of withdrawal, however, there are many measures the United States and international community can take to maximize the chances for progress. The United States can quickly carry out a full military withdrawal from Iraq, carefully pursue diplomatic remedies for the Iraq crisis, and generously give to help rebuild Iraq in the long run.

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NEIGHBORS IN NEED: ZIMBABWEANS SEEKING REFUGE IN SOUTH AFRICA.
Human Rights Watch. June 19, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 119 pages]

Since 2005 an estimated one to 1.5 million Zimbabweans have fled across the border into South Africa, the region’s economic power. They have run from persecution and from economic destitution as the Zimbabwean economy collapses. Recent refugees fleeing the brutal crackdown on political opponents of President Robert Mugabe in the aftermath of the March 2008 Zimbabwean elections are the latest wave. Due to South Africa’s asylum system and deportation practices, many of the tens of thousands that have applied for asylum are at constant risk of being unlawfully returned. Many of the ones remaining are mistreated by police, abused and exploited by employers.

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AA08234
Mead, Walter Russell THE NEW ISRAEL AND THE OLD: WHY GENTILE AMERICANS BACK THE JEWISH STATE (Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 4, July-August 2008)
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According to Mead, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine dates back at least to the early 19th century. At that time, some Christian Zionists saw a return of Jews to Palestine as realization of a literal interpretation of biblical prophecy. Other Christians saw such a return as an example of God making a better world by saving the Jews from oppression. “Progressive Christian Zionism ... is rooted in guilt and a sense that Christians' past poor treatment of the Jews is now preventing Jews from accepting Christianity,” Mead writes. Christian Americans viewed Jews like themselves as chosen people destined to redeem the whole world by fulfilling obligations to God. They believed that Americans shared with ancient Israelites the experience of displacing native people from their lands in line with a divine plan. While support for Israel from political liberals and African-Americans has waned over 40 years, support has increased among American nationalists and evangelical Christians. The latter view Jewish control of Jerusalem as a sign for rebuilding the ancient Temple, one of the steps in the Bible’s prophecy of the return of Jesus and the end of the world.

 

AA08216
Giragosian, Richard REDEFINING TURKEY'S STRATEGIC ORIENTATION (Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 6, No. 4, Winter 2007, pp. 33-40)
Full Text [pdf format, 8 pages]

Turkey continues to undergo a profound reexamination of the very tenets of its national identity, driven by a combination of internal reforms and external challenges. An equally significant strategic reorientation involving Turkey's role within the region and its future position in a broader international context is Turkey's robust reassertion of its strategic importance, as a global actor with an emboldened agenda of activity within a number of international organizations, ranging from its traditional partners like NATO and the UN, to the more unconventional, such as GUAM and even the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). And most crucially, partly as a result of both frustration with the European Union (EU) and a decline in its relationship with the United States, this new strategic reorientation may very well determine the future trajectory of the Turkish Republic.

 

AA08217
Giragosian, Richard THE STRATEGIC CENTRAL ASIAN ARENA (China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 1, February 2006, pp. 133-153)
Full Text [pdf format, 21 pages]

Central Asia has emerged as a pivotal arena of international security, with an enhanced strategic significance that has superseded the region's geographic isolation and geopolitical marginalization. Security in Central Asia is now a key factor in the broader calculus of Russian, Chinese, and American interests. Moreover, stability in both Central Asia and along its periphery further impacts a secondary set of states, including India, Iran and Japan. This paper examines the interests of the various powers in Central Asia and the quest for stability and security in the region.

 

AA08180
Johnson, Thomas H.; Mason, M. Chris NO SIGN UNTIL THE BURST OF FIRE: UNDERSTANDING THE PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN FRONTIER (International Security, vol. 32, no. 4, Spring 2008, pp. 41-77)
Full Text [pdf format, 37 pages]

The authors assert that the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area has become the most dangerous frontier on earth and the most challenging for U.S. national security interests. The portion of the border region that is home to extremist groups such the Taliban and al-Qaida coincides almost exactly with the area overwhelmingly dominated by the Pashtun tribes. The fact that most of Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s violent religious extremism, and with it much of the counterterrorism challenge to the U.S., are contained within a single ethno-linguistic group, has not been fully grasped by U.S. policymakers. The threat to long-term U.S. security interests in this area is a unique cultural problem. In both southern Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan, the U.S. and the international community should be doing everything in their means to empower the tribal elders and restore balance to a tribal/cultural system that has been disintegrating since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

 

AA08178
Autesserre, Severine THE TROUBLE WITH CONGO: HOW LOCAL DISPUTES FUEL REGIONAL CONFLICT (Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3, May/June 2008, pp. 94-110)
Full Text (EbscoHost; password required)

The author, assistant professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University, writes that the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, yet 2 million more people have been killed since then in part because international peacekeepers are not doing enough to address local conflicts, usually centered on land disputes. The Congolese government and local NGOs cannot undertake this project alone, and international organizations need to hire more staff with local expertise and conflict resolution skills, even at the expense of existing aid and development programs, to build peace through mediation, “quite literally, from the ground up.”

 

AFGHANISTAN: STATE AND SOCIETY, GREAT POWER POLITICS, AND THE WAY AHEAD.
RAND Corporation. Web posted May 18, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 108 pages]

The report compiles the papers presented at the conference held by the RAND Corporation and the Royal Danish Defence College on Afghanistan. The conference was attended by many politicians, scholars, academics, and representative of both governmental and nongovernmental institutions from more than 20 countries. The papers examine the problems that Afghanistan faces in the wake of the U.S.-led attack on al Qaeda training camps and the Taliban government and the challenges confronting the NATO International Security Assistance Force as it coordinates nation-building activities in Afghanistan. Some represent themes of the importance of historical precedents, coordination among relevant parties, and the development of an all-encompassing, long-term strategic approach.

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THE IRAQ WAR: KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman. May 7, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 147 pages]

Cordesman has developed a detailed briefing on the complex Iraq War on key developments in the fighting, drawing on material provided by the Multinational Force- Iraq (MNF-I), the Department of Defense, Department of State, Iraqi government, and other sources. It surveys sectarian and ethnic trends, progress in political accommodation, developments in the fighting, and trends in casualties. Maps show the steady decline in Al Qa’ida capabilities since mid-2007, but also the broader problems in sectarian and ethnic tensions and conflicts. Breakouts are provided on the trends in the fighting in Anbar and Baghdad. Polling data shows how Iraqis view these issues by sect and ethnicity. An updated break out is provided of past and current US aid efforts, as well as total aid and Iraqi government expenditures.

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AA08157
Jones, Seth THE RISE OF AFGHANISTAN’S INSURGENCY: STATE FAILURE AND JIHAD (International Security, vol. 32, no. 4, Spring 2008, pp. 7-40)
Full Text [pdf format, 34 pages]

The author, a political scientist at RAND Corporation and professor at Georgetown University, notes that in 2002 Afghanistan began to experience a violent insurgency as the Taliban and other groups conducted a sustained effort to overthrow the Afghan government. Jones believes that this resurgence has important policy implications, most importantly, the collapse of governance after the overthrow of the Taliban regime. The author argues that the Afghan government was unable to provide basic services to the population, its security forces were too weak to establish law and order, and there were too few international forces to fill the gap. Also, the primary motivation of insurgent leaders was ideological -- leaders of the Taliban, al-Qaida, and other insurgent groups wanted to overthrow the Afghan government and replace it with one grounded in an extremist interpretation of Sunni Islam.

 

AA08160
Simon, Steven THE PRICE OF THE SURGE (Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3, May/June 2008)
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In the long run, the Bush administration’s troop surge may hurt rather than help chances for building a viable Iraqi state, says Simon, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The surge may have produced a short-lived decrease in violence, but “it has done so by stoking the three forces that have traditionally threatened the stability of Middle Eastern states: tribalism, warlordism, and sectarianism,” he writes. “States that have failed to control these forces have ultimately become ungovernable, and this is the fate for which the surge is preparing Iraq. By empowering the tribes and other networks without regulating their relationship to the state, the United States has enabled them to compete with one another for local control and what is mostly criminal revenue.” According to Simon, the United States currently has no good option in Iraq. He recommends that the United States make clear its intention to withdraw and suggests that reconciliation among the factions may be possible if it is under UN auspices and led by a credible special envoy.

 

THE SHI'ITE GAMBLE: ROLLING THE DICE FOR IRAQ'S FUTURE.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman. Web posted May 1, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 7 pages]

Cordesman states that it is becoming clear that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s offensive in Basra is more of a power struggle with Sadr than an effort to deal with security. It is far less clear on how this power struggle will play out, and what its implication will be for the US and Iraq as a whole. There are three possible results: First, Maliki can win, defeat Sadr’s militia, the Mahdi Army, or Jaish al Mahdi (JAM) and marginalize the Sadr movement. Second, Maliki can provoke Sadr into open violence and a new form of insurgency. Or, both sides become locked in a lingering intra-Shi’ite power struggle that mixes violence with political power plays.

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WAR IN IRAQ: THE PUBLIC PERSPECTIVES.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Gary Langer. Web posted May 6, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 70 pages]

The report examines Iraqi and U.S. views of the war and its aftermath. It was presented at CSIS by Gary Langer, director of polling, ABC News on April 30, 2008.

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AA08143
Miller, Aaron David THE LONG DISTANCE: SEARCHING FOR ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE (Wilson Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 2, Spring 2008, pp. 38-44)
Full Text (EbscoHost; password required)

Miller, a former State Department negotiator under both Republican and Democratic presidents, discusses tactics that have been successful in earlier peace negotiations and also possible pitfalls.At the more successful Arab-Israeli negotiations, outside events precipitated compromises from each side. Miller describes how the U.S.-Israeli trust relationship can be leveraged effectively but warns that productive change won't come unless both sides are ready for it. Miller suggests that the upcoming Annapolis negotiations should be about laying a framework for peace;the next administration will have the difficult task of maintaining continuity.

 

IRAQ, THE WAY AHEAD: PHASE IV REPORT.
American Enterprise Institute, Iraq Planning Group. Frederick W. Kagan. March, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 89 pages]

The United States now has the opportunity to achieve its fundamental objectives in Iraq through the establishment of a peaceful, stable, secular, democratic state and a reliable ally in the struggle against both Sunni and Shiite terrorism. The growth of anti-Iranian sentiment in both Sunni and Shiite Arab communities in Iraq holds out the possibility that Iraq can become a bulwark against Iranian aims in the region, and that Iraq can, with American support, return to its role of balancing Iranian power without being the regional threat it had become under Saddam Hussein. This reports documents the progress that has been made and lays out a long-term strategy to consolidate the gains.

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CUBA'S POLITICAL SUCCESSION: FROM FIDEL TO RAUL CASTRO.
Congressional Research Service, RS22742, Library of Congress. Mark Sullivan. Web posted April 6, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

Since February 24, 2008, when Raul Castro replaced his brother Fidel as President of Cuba’s “Council of State,” Cuba’s political succession has been characterized by a remarkable degree of stability. Most observers expected this since Raúl already had been heading the Cuban government on a provisional basis since July 2006 when Fidel stepped down as President because of poor health. Cuba’s stable political succession from one communist leader to another raises questions about the future direction of U.S. policy, which currently can be described as a sanctions-based policy that ties the easing of sanctions to democratic change in Cuba.

 

THE ONGOING LESSONS OF THE AFGHAN AND IRAQ WARS.
Center for Strategic and International Studies. Anthony Cordesman. April 7, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 86 pages]

Understanding that there are obvious dangers in trying to draw any common lessons from the fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq and that they are very different countries, it may still be said that they have common lessons. Moreover, many of the most important lessons reinforce both what the US military has learned (relearned?) about stability operations, nation building, and counter insurgency and put in Field Manuals like the one on Operations (FM-3-0), and much of the work of various study groups. This paper outlines the “ongoing lessons” of the campaigns in the two countries.

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IRAQ AND THE CROCKER-PETRAEUS TESTIMONY: THE RISKS THAT ONLY TIME AND A SUSTAINED US PRESENCE CAN DEAL WITH.
Center for Strategic and International Studies. Anthony H. Cordesman. Web posted April 14, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 10 pages]

If there is any clear message that emerges out of the events of the last few weeks, it is that the risks in Iraq remain high enough so that no one can yet say whether the odds of any kind of US success are better than even. The fact remains, however, that there is still a marginally better case for staying than for leaving. Moreover, no one in the America should forget that US decisions affect the lives of some 28 million Iraqis, or the responsibility the US bears for its failure to prepare for stability operations and nation-building in going to war, its failure to deploy adequate troops to secure the country, its empowerment of Shi’ite exile movements and its support of de-Baathification and the disbandment of the Iraqi military forces.

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IRAQ AFTER THE SURGE: OPTIONS AND QUESTIONS.
United States Institute of Peace; USIPeace Briefing. Daniel Serwer, et. al. Web posted April 15, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 9 pages]

Iraq remains a critical problem for the United States. Security has improved to roughly 2005 levels, and tentative political progress has been made, but there is no visible end to the U.S. commitment required to prevent Iraq from spinning out of control and threatening a widening war in the region. This study evaluates options for U.S. policy in the future.

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IRAQI CIVILIAN CASUALTIES ESTIMATES.
Congressional Research Service, RS22537, Library of Congress. Hannah Fischer. Wep posted April 15, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 5 pages]

This report gathers together various governmental and nongovernmental estimates of Iraqi civilian dead and wounded. No Iraqi or U.S. government office regularly releases publically available statistics on Iraqi civilian casualties. Statistics are sometimes available through alternative sources, such as nonprofit organizations, or through statements made by officials to the press. NOTE: Because these estimates are based on varying time periods and have been created using differing methodologies, posts should exercise caution when using them and should consider them as guideposts rather than as statements of fact.

 

NIGERIA: CURRENT ISSUES.
Congressional Research Service, RL33964, Library of Congress. Lauren Ploch. Web posted March 23, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 28 pages]

Nigeria has faced intermittent political turmoil and economic crisis since gaining independence in October 1960. Its political life has been scarred by conflict along both ethnic and geographic lines and misrule has undermined the authority and legitimacy of the state apparatus. The country made a transition to civilian governance in 1999 after 16 years of military rule. In May 2007, President Obasanjo transferred power to a new administration, marking the country’s first peaceful transfer of power from one civilian government to another.

 

PROJECTING PYONGYANG: THE FUTURE OF NORTH KOREA'S KIM JONG IL REGIME.
Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. Andrew Scobell. Web posted March 24, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 57 pages]

A decade ago, the conventional wisdom was that the end of North Korea was imminent. The country was beset by a severe famine, its economy appeared to have collapsed, and the collapse of the regime seemed destined to follow. In 2008, the conventional wisdom has changed. It now views North Korea as rebounding from the crisis of the last decade and the regime as being on a firm footing. This monograph addresses the question of Pyongyang’s future and what that means for the region and the United States.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

ENLARGEMENT ISSUES AT NATO'S BUCHAREST SUMMIT.
Congressional Research Service, RL34415, Library of Congress. Paul Gallis, et. al. Web posted March 23, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 33 pages]

NATO’s summit in Bucharest on April 2-4, 2008 will feature consideration of candidacies for membership of Albania, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. These candidate states are small and their inclusion in the alliance cannot be considered strategic in a military sense, though they could play important roles in the stabilization of the region. Another summit issue is the possibility of offering Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine, though objections by Russia and public opposition within the two countries themselves make this problematic. This report examines all of the issues to be addressed in Bucharest.

 

BRAZIL: A DEFENSE OVERVIEW.
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Statesmen's Forum. Nelson Jobim. March 21, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 15 pages]

This is the transcript of a speech by Brazilian Defense Secretary Nelson Jobim as delivered to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Secretary Jobim discussed the growth and development of Brazil as a regional power, its relationships with other South American nations, and the Brazilian proposal for the creation of a South American defense council to be made up of the defense ministers of participating nations.

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SECURITY SECTOR REFORM IN LIBERIA: MIXED RESULTS FROM HUMBLE BEGINNINGS.
Strategic Studies Institute. Mark Malan. Web posted March 20, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 101 pages]

After 14 years of civil war in which human rights were widely and seriously abused by all sides, there is a clear and urgent need to comprehensively reform Liberia’s entire security sector. Outside of Europe, a whole-of-government approach to security sector reform may be conceptually valid, but it seems to be unworkable in practice. In Africa, donor countries have not had the fortitude to see comprehensive processes through, and recipient countries have not had the financial and human resource capacity to implement or sustain ambitious security sector reform programs. Where United Nations peacekeeping missions are deployed, these reform programs slip into a systemic funding vacuum with the Security Council mandating missions in the hope that a “lead nation” will step forward. The lead nation for Liberia, because of its special relationship with the country, is the United States.

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SERBIA: CURRENT ISSUES AND U.S. POLICY.
Congressional Research Service, RS22601, Library of Congress. Stephen Woehrel. Web posted March 13, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

Serbia is seeking to integrate into the European Union, but its progress has been hindered by a failure to arrest four remaining indicted war criminals. The country also has sought closer ties to NATO, but its government is divided on whether to seek eventual NATO membership. The United States, Britain, France, Italy, and other countries recently recognized the independence of Serbia’s Kosovo province, an act which Serbian leaders have sharply condemned. The second session of the 110th Congress may consider legislation on Serbia, including conditions on proposed aid to that troubled country.

 

SOMALIA: SEVERAL CHALLENGES LIMIT U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL STABILIZATION, HUMANITARIAN, AND DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS.
[U.S. Government Accountability Office.] Web posted March 4, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 59 pages]

The international community, including the United States, is seeking to improve the security situation in Somalia, mainly by funding an African Union peacekeeping operation. However, a shortage of troops has hindered peacekeepers’ ability to achieve their mission. In addition, the most recent attempt at political reconciliation was limited, in part because several important opposition groups were not involved.

 

UKRAINE-RUSSIA TENSIONS.
Center for Strategic and International Studies; Critical Questions. Steven Pifer. March 4, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 1 page]

This brief “critical questions” paper examines some problems that have developed between Ukraine and Russia over natural gas sales and Kyev’s bid for a NATO membership action plan.

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THE STATUS OF U.S. EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN.
Center for Strategic and International Studies; transcript of roundtable discussion. John J. Hamre, et. al. February 27, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 27 pages]

R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs; Col. David Lamm, former Chief of Staff, Combined Forces in Afghanistan, et. al. discuss the status of theAmerican effort.

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HUGH CHAVEZ, THE FARC, AND THREATS OF WAR.
Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #1834. Ray Walser.
Full Text [pdf format, 3 pages]

On March 1, Raúl Reyes, the nom de guerre of Luis Édgar Devia Silva, a senior leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), died in an engagement on the borderland between Colombia and Venezuela. A commander of the FARC's Southern Bloc, Reyes stood in line for a top leadership position in the narco-terrorist group. The engagement occurred on the Ecuador side of the border and appears to have involved possible violations of Ecuadorian sovereignty. The reaction of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to a bilateral incident and his order to militarize the Colombia–Venezuela frontier threaten to escalate the incident into a full-blown regional crisis.

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LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ISSUES FOR THE 110TH CONGRESS.
Congressional Research Service, RL33828, Library of Congress. Mark P. Sullivan, et. al. Web posted February 29, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 41 pages]

Over the past two decades, the Latin America and Caribbean region has made enormous strides in terms of political and economic development. Twelve countries held successful elections for head of government in 2006. The region’s economy has rebounded since 2004, most recently experiencing a growth rate over 5% in 2006. Despite this progress, several nations face considerable challenges that affect U.S. interests and policy in the region.

 

INDEX OF STATE WEAKNESS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD.
Brookings Institution. Susan E. Rice, et. al. Web posted February 26, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 49 pages]

Since September 11, 2001, the United States and other governments have frequently asserted that threats to international peace and security often come from the world’s weakest states. Such countries can fall prey to and spawn a host of transnational security threats, including terrorism, weapons proliferation, organized crime, infectious disease, environmental degradation, and civil conflicts that spill over borders. This paper presents the Index of State Weakness in the Developing World (hereafter, the Index), which ranks all 141 developing countries according to their relative performance in four critical spheres: economic, political, security, and social welfare.

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NORTH KOREA NOW: WILL THE CLOCK BE TURNED BACK?
Brookings Institution. Georgy Toloraya. February 21, 2008.
Full Text

According to the author, following a recent visit to North Korea, the overall mood there regarding possibilities for denuclearization and, more broadly, for the peace process in general, has changed dramatically for the worse since the beginning of 2008.

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CREATING A STABLE AND SECURE "IRAQRACY": THE CONTINUING NEED FOR STRATEGIC PATIENCE.
Center for Strategic and International Studies. Anthony Cordesman. February 14, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 48 pages]

No one can spend some 10 days visiting the battlefields in Iraq without seeing major progress in every area. A combination of the surge, improved win and hold tactics, the tribal uprising in Anbar and other provinces, the Sadr ceasefire, and major advances in the use of IS&R have transformed the battle against Al Qaida in Iraq. If the US provides sustained support to the Iraqi government -- in security, governance, and development -- there is now a very real chance that Iraq will emerge as a secure and stable state.

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IRAN'S ACTIVITIES AND INFLUENCE IN IRAQ.
Congressional Research Service, RS22323, Library of Congress. Kenneth Katzman. Web posted February 10, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

Iran is materially assisting major Shiite Muslim political factions in Iraq, most of which have longstanding ideological, political, and religious ties to Tehran, and their armed militias. In late 2007, the U.S. noted a decrease in Iranian weapons shipments, but there is debate over whether this was driven by U.S. policy toward Iran, including interdiction as well as bilateral diplomacy on Iraq stabilization, or an Iranian re-evaluation of its own strategy in Iraq. This report will be updated.

 

THE EGYPT-GAZA BORDER AND ITS EFFECT ON ISRAELI-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS.
Congressional Research Service, RL 34346, Library of Congress. Jeremy M. Sharp. February 1, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 15 pages]

Prompted by security concerns of Egypt and Israel countries as they relate to Gaza, both of those countries and the United States are studying ways by which Egypt can gain more effective control of the border area.

 

APPLYING THE LESSONS OF BOSNIA IN IRAQ: WHATEVER THE SOLUTION, PROPERTY RIGHTS SHOULD BE SECURED.
Rhodri C. Williams. Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement, Brookings Institution. January 8, 2008.
Full Text [html format, various pagings]

Recent proposals have been made for “soft partition” of Iraq through a process of decentralization rather than the creation of separate national entities. The U.S. Senate passed a non-binding resolution to this effect in September, 2007. This document looks at the proposals and compares them to the similar effort made in Bosnia in the early 1990’s.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

THE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE AND RELATED ARMS SALE PROPOSALS.
Christopher M. Blanchard, et. al., Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. January 14, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

This report describes the structure and objectives of the Gulf Security Dialogue; briefly assesses its regional implications; summarizes proposed arms sales and evaluates the Congressional notification and review procedures.

 

IRAN SANCTIONS: IMPACT IN FURTHERING U.S. OBJECTIVES IS UNCLEAR AND SHOULD BE REVIEWED.
GAO-08-58, U.S. General Accountability Office (GAO). Web posted January 16, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 66 pages]

U.S. officials report that U.S. sanctions have slowed foreign investment in Iran’s petroleum sector, denied parties involved in Iran’s proliferation and terrorism activities access to the U.S. financial system, and provided a clear statement of U.S. concerns to the rest of the world. However, other evidence raises questions about the extent of reported impacts.

 

PEACEKEEPING BEST PRACTICES: REPORT OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL. Secretary-General Report, United Nations. December 18, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, various pagings]

This report provides an overview of best practices in peacekeeping including mission planning and efficiency. The report explains the methodology and tools used for managing best practices, and it describes improvement gains as a result of these practices. The report also offers an initial assessment of the impact of the new system, which was introduced in 2005, highlighting improvements in efficiency and effectiveness.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

UGANDA: CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE CRISIS IN NORTH UGANDA.
Ted Dagne and Hannah Reeves. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Updated December 17, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 15 pages]

In February 2006, Uganda held its first multi-party election in almost 26 years. President Yoweri Museveni and his party, the National Revolutionary Movement, won a decisive victory, but support for this administration has declined.

In October 2007, President Museveni met with President Bush, administrative officials, and members of Congress to discuss a wide range of issues; such as, U.S.-Uganda relations, the crisis in Somalia and Darfur, trade, and HIV/AIDS. This report summarizes these discussions.

 

INSIDE GAZA: THE CHALLENGE OF CLANS AND FAMILIES.
Middle East Report, International Crisis Group. December 20, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 32 pages]

Throughout Gaza’s history, clans and families have played an important role. Today clans and families are one of the “significant obstacles Hamas faces in trying to consolidate its authority and reinstate stability in the territory . . .” This paper offers a history of Gaza and its clans and families. It also relates how Hamas has learned to work within the families in an attempt to bring stability to the area.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

SUSTAINING THE PEACE AFTER CIVIL WAR.
T. David Mason. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Web posted December 27, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 117 pages]

Since the end of World War II, civil wars have occurred four times more often than interstate wars. Half of these civil wars have had at least two or as many as six conflicts. This paper presents an analytical framework used to identify factors that make civil wars more or less likely. The author then applies these propositions to the war in Iraq.

CONFLICT-SENSITIVE APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT.
Merriam Mashatt, Daniel Long, and James Crum. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP). Web posted December 28, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

“Stabilization must be achieved before development initiatives can take root.” Generally, the goal of postwar stability is two-fold: (1) to ensure that the threat is reduced; and (2) to make certain that the reason for the original conflict does not reoccur.

USIP developed a model, based on a series of consultations, using a life-cycle approach to integrate economic considerations with conflict assessment. The authors then developed best-practices for conflict-sensitive approaches for each phase of an infrastructure life-cycle. This report summarizes their discussions and the five life-cycle phases. It then offers recommendations.

 

STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION: ACTIONS ARE NEEDED TO DEVELOP A PLANNING AND COORDINATION FRAMEWORK AND ESTABLISH THE CIVILIAN RESERVE CORPS.
General Accountability Office (GAO). Web posted December 6, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 60 pages]

In 2004, the State Department created the Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization. This Office directs the planning and implementation of reconstruction and stabilization operations. In 2005, Presidential Directive 44 (NSPD-44) charged State with improving responses to overseas crises. Congress asked GAO to report on State’s efforts to improve interagency planning and coordination of these operations.

GAO recommends that State clarify and communicate its roles and responsibilities and apply all of these elements to actual operation. State partially concurs with these recommendations.

 

ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS: THE ANNAPOLIS CONFERENCE.
Carol Migdalovitz. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. December 7, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

The Bush Administration “convened an international conference in Annapolis, MD [Maryland] to officially revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmud Abbas reached a ‘Joint Understanding,’ in which they agreed to launch continuous bilateral negotiations in an effort to conclude a peace treaty by the end of 2008. . .Both leaders are operating under significant domestic political constraints and they continue to disagree on many issues. Thus, their negotiations will be challenging.”

 

THE AFGHAN-PAKISTAN WAR: A STATUS REPORT.
Anthony H. Cordesman. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Web posted December 3, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 131 pages]

This report is the second of two reports measuring progress in Afghanistan. The report provides maps, graphics, and charts to describe what is and what is not known about the war, aid efforts, Afghan governance, and the counter-narcotics program. The report defines the war as an Afghan-Pakistan conflict and “addresses the fact that the war is not an Afghan conflict but one whose center of gravity is the Pashtun and tribal areas in southern and eastern Afghanistan and western Pakistan.”

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

BOTSWANA: AN AFRICAN SUCCESS STORY SHOWS STRAINS.
Stephanie Hanson. Council on Foreign Relations. January 2008
Full Text [html format]

Botswana is often hailed for its political and economic stability, but its high HIV/AIDS infection rate is the 2nd-highest in the world. Immigration from Zimbabwe also poses a problem.

 

A CLIMATE OF CONFLICT: THE LINKS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE, PEACE AND WAR. Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda. International Alert. Web posted November 5, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 48 pages]

The findings for this report are taken from the Fourth Assessment Review of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. The report looks at the social and human consequences of climate change since many of the world's poorest countries face a double-headed problem of climate change and violent conflict. This report includes twelve recommendations for states and communities to handle climate change and conflict.

 

THE KURDS IN POST-SADDAM IRAQ. Kenneth Katzman and Alfred B. Prados. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. Updated November 7, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

The Kurdish region of northern Iraq is relatively peaceful and prospering economically. However, the Kurds political autonomy and strength in post-Saddam Iraq has caused increased concerns in Turkey, Iran, and Arab Iraq. Additionally, their ties to the U.S. and the U.S.’s drive to stabilize Iraq “will likely enable the Kurds to parry the threats.” This report will be updated as needed.

 

SECURITY COOPERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Anthony H. Cordesman. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Web posted October 29, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 52 pages]

This briefing “addresses the political, diplomatic, and military dimensions of the changes that the U.S. must make, with special attention to the military dimension. It focuses on the changes in the strategic environment, changes in the threat, and the changes needed in the way that the U.S. and its friends and allies in the MENA area need to shape their conventional forces.” Lastly, it focuses on the need to bring security cooperation to a level of trust and partnership.

 

A STEEP HILL: CONGRESS AND U.S. EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN FRAGILE STATES. Derek Chollet, Mark Irvine, and Bradley Larson. Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Web posted October 19, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 104 pages]

Rebuilding states is important to the U.S. for international security reasons. Congress must play an active role in U.S.-led stabilization and reconstruction projects. However, congressional members are “ambivalent about their role in foreign policy. . .” because many believe that support for stabilization and reconstruction operations can make them politically vulnerable.

 

AA07398
Bahgat, Gawdat IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES: THE EMERGING SECURITY PARADIGM IN THE MIDDLE EAST (Parameters, vol. 37, no. 2, Summer 2007, pp. 5-18)
Full text [html format]

The author, political science professor at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, examines Iran’s rising power. This country currently has the largest army in the Middle East, greater than all other Persian Gulf countries combined. Iran’s nuclear ambition and potential conflict with Western powers are major concerns for Arab states in the Persian Gulf. Better relations between America and Iran, combined with reduced Israeli-Iranian tensions, would go a long way towards promoting greater stability in the region.

 

AA07366
Atzili, Boaz THE VIRTUES AND VICES OF FIXED TERRITORIAL OWNERSHIP (SAIS Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, Summer-Fall 2007, pp. 95-108)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

Atzili, a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University, asserts that territorial conquest and land grabs, the stuff of most history, seem no longer acceptable. Other countries have refused for decades to recognize forceful takeovers of land by Israel, Turkey, and Armenia; Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was repulsed. Fixed territories have contributed to peace and stability in North and South America, and most of Europe and North Asia. People in these regions already strongly identify with their nation-state, and therefore the countries need not find external threats to unify their people. In contrast, those living in socio-politically unstable regions -- the Middle East, Africa, the Balkans, Central America, and parts of Asia and the former Soviet Union –- are less likely to identify with the nation-state. Having fixed borders in these countries can perpetuate state weakness "because it deprives the state of a key factor that historically motivated state building: the external threat to state borders and state survival."

 

THE REPORT OF THE INDEPENDENT COMMISSION ON THE SECURITY FORCES OF IRAQ [JONES REPORT]. Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq. September 6, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 153 pages]

General James L. Jones, USMC (Ret.) presented this report to the U.S. House and Senate Committees on Armed Forces. The report addresses the “readiness of the Iraqi Security Forces to assume responsibility for maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraqi, their ability to deny international terrorists safe haven, their ability to bring greater security to Iraq’s 18 provinces in the next 12 to 18 months, and their ability to bring an end to sectarian violence to achieve national reconciliation.”

 

THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: WORSENING CRISIS IN A TROUBLED REGION. Jacqueline C. Woodfork and Joel Charny. USIPeace Briefing, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted September 14, 2007.
Full Text [html format, various pagings]

The Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the least known countries in Africa. It is also one of the poorest. CAR’s terrain varies from very dry in the northern areas to tropical forests in the south. There are numerous ethnic groups within its four million inhabitants. Islam is predominant in the north, Christianity in the south, and indigenous religions are important throughout. 

Recent internal conflicts and a spillover of political unrest and violence from Sudan and Chad have made CAR more prominent on the international map. This Briefing highlights some of the key elements of the political and social turmoil and provides insights into the current civil unrest and humanitarian crisis.

 

AA07352
Baker, James A. III THE BIG TEN: THE CASE FOR PRAGMATIC IDEALISM (National Interest, no. 91, September/October 2007, pp. 14-19)
Full text [html format]

Baker, former Secretary of the Treasury and of State, and co-chair of the Iraq Study Group, outlines ten guiding principles which he believes will “offer our surest guide and best hope for navigating our great country safely though this precarious period of unparalleled opportunity and risk in world affairs.” While asserting that the U.S. will remain the dominant global power for some time, he warns that its power must be used carefully, that “spreading it too thinly can lead to disaster,” and offers the following maxims to guide policymakers: 1) The United States must be comfortable using its power. 2) We must remember that even U.S. power is limited. 3) Be prepared to act unilaterally when the situation demands it. 4) Appreciate the importance of allies. 5) Use all possible means to achieve the objectives. 6) Be prepared to change direction if warranted. 7) Understand that the United States will sometimes have to deal with authoritarian regimes. 8) We must be prepared to talk with our enemies. 9) Values are important, but they are not the only thing that should guide our policy. 10) Domestic support is vital to any successful foreign policy.

 

SECURING, STABILIZING, AND REBUILDING IRAQ: IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAS NOT MET MOST LEGISLATIVE, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC BENCHMARKS. General Accountability Office (GAO). Web posted September 4, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 100 pages]

According to this General Accountability Office (GAO) analysis, of the 18 legislative, security, and economic benchmarks for stabilizing and rebuilding Iraq, the Iraqi government has met 3; partially met 4; and has not met 11. GAO recommends that the Secretaries of State and Defense clearly specify “what step in the Iraqi legislative process each draft law has reached;” recognize trends in sectarian violence; and better identify operation readiness of Iraqi security forces. The Departments of State and Defense concur with these recommendations but disagree with certain benchmark assessments.

 

POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND DEMOCRATIC UNCERTAINTY IN ETHIOPIA. Lahra Smith. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace. August 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

The domestic situation in Ethiopia has produced violence and tension over the past two years, and it has worsened the instability in the region. This report was commissioned by the Political Transitions in Africa project at the U.S. Institute of Peace. The author makes the following suggestions:

• Pardon and release the 38 political detainees, which would give political impetus to negotiations;
• Reinvigorate unresolved national issues, such as land and economic development;
• Hold elections at the city and local government levels; and
• Both sides need to make concessions.

 

UNGOVERNED TERRITORIES: UNDERSTANDING AND REDUCING TERRORISM RISKS. Angel Rabasa, Steven Boraz, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Theodore W. Karasik, Jennifer D.P. Moroney, Kevin A. O'Brien, and John E. Peters. RAND Project Air Force, RAND Corporation. August 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 398 pages]

Since the end of the Cold War, many of the crises areas that required intervention by U.S. or international forces were due to a “collapse or absence of state authority.” This study’s objective was to understand the conditions that gave rise to these “ungoverned territories and their effects on U.S. security interests and to develop strategies to improve the U.S. ability to mitigate these effects. . .”

The authors conducted a comparative analysis of eight case studies to determine the implications for the U.S. government, the Department of Defense, and the U.S. Air Force.

 

POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND DEMOCRATIC UNCERTAINTY IN ETHIOPIA. Lahra Smith. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace. August 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

The domestic politics in Ethiopia have produced violence and tension over the past two years. Additionally, the democratization and state-building process remains “unresolved as the worsening instability of the region takes precedence.” This report is part of the Political Transitions in Africa project and provides as overview of the worsening situation in Ethiopia.

 

WILL SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1769 MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN DARFUR? COMMENTARY. Roberta Cohen. Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement, Brookings Institution. August 9, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 5 pages]

The Security Council’s Resolution 1769 on Darfur is the strongest so far, and it was adopted unanimously. The resolution calls for the following:

• Quadrupling the number of troops and police;
• Giving troops a stronger mandate;
• Emphasizing the importance of a political process;
• Expressing a “strong concern” about attacks on humanitarian workers; and
• Calling for safe access to the populations in need.

“Finally, the resolution is noteworthy in not explicitly inviting Sudan’s consent as did last summer’s Resolution 1706, which enabled Sudan then to refuse the deployment of a Chapter 7 UN force.”

 

SECURITY REQUIREMENTS FOR POST-TRANSITION CUBA. Alex Crowther. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Web posted July 30, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 39 pages]

The passing of Fidel and Raul Castro will bring about either a succession or a transition in Cuba. Some form of transition in security requirements is also expected. This paper examines the security requirements and offers proposals on “what missions and structure the Cuban security forces might have . . .” It also considers the question of “what if” new Cuba asks for U.S. assistance.

 

IRAQ AND THE GULF STATES: THE BALANCE OF FEAR. Jon B. Alterman. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted July 27, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

This is the fifth report issued by the Institute’s Iraq and Its Neighbors project. The project consists of geopolitical specialists who assess the interests and influences in the region. The Institute also sponsors high-level, nonofficial dialogue between Iraqi security officials and foreign policy officials from the surrounding countries. The most recent dialogue, the Mamara Declaration, established a framework for a regional peace process.

 

AA07303
Haas, Mark L. A GERIATRIC PEACE? THE FUTURE OF U.S. POWER IN A WORLD OF AGING POPULATIONS (International Security, Vol. 32, No. 1, Summer 2007, pp. 112-147)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

This provocative article looks at the aging of the global population in coming decades, and attempts to sketch out international consequences. The author, assistant professor of political science at Duquesne University, describes a world where the U.S. population is aging, but so are the populations of allies and rivals. Japan and China will have more oldsters to support; Germany and Russia will see population loss. Since U.S. rivals have less efficient economies than the U.S., this will impede their military spending, resulting in continuation of a balance of power that favors the U.S. This is particularly true as the American population is aging less slowly than the population of its key rivals. Ironically, one of the drags on the global economy will be military pensions, making the development of advanced weapons too expensive for every country except the U.S. However, the author notes, the relative burden of an aging population will also affect the U.S., and cause it to rein in some of its more activist foreign policy initiatives. In addition, developing nations with faltering economies, with the added burden of aging populations, may become terrorist havens.

 

PUBLIC OPINION IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: FROM GENEVA TO DISENGAGEMENT TO KADIMA AND HAMAS. Jacob Shamir. Peaceworks, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted July 2, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 72 pages]

This monograph addresses the issue of how public opinion influences domestic policymaking. The research is based on public opinions collected from both Israeli and Palestinian citizens after the start of the second intifada in 2000. The study provides a summary of the public sentiment regarding conflict resolution and peacemaking options. It also examines the “role of public opinion at crucial junctures in the Israeli-Palestinian two-level game.”

 

AA07283
Felicetti, Gary. THE LIMITS OF TRAINING IN IRAQI FORCE DEVELOPMENT (Parameters, vol. 36, no. 4, Winter 2006-07, pp. 71-83)
Full text [html format]

Although training Iraqi national security forces is often touted as the key to victory, it may not be a realistic solution. More training will not solve the forces' multiple problems, including improper selection of candidates and leaders, a poor organizational culture, flawed work environments, divided loyalties, and officers focused on basic survival. These challenges must be addressed, not simply through more training exercises, but by the far more complex task of nation-building.

 

WESTERN SAHARA: THE COST OF THE CONFLICT. Middle East/North Africa Report, International Crisis Group. June 11, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 32 pages]

The Western Sahara conflict is one of the world’s oldest and most neglected. After 30 years of war, displacement of people, and a 1991 ceasefire, a solution for the region is remote. Needless to say, the overall cost of the conflict is very high.

“This report describes the human, social, economic, political and security price the parties need to acknowledge if they are to end the protracted conflict.”

 

MAKING LIBERIA SAFE: TRANSFORMATION OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY SECTOR. David C. Gompert, Olga Oliker, Brooke Stearns, Keith Crane, and K. Jack Riley. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. July 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 118 pages]

Liberia’s new government has made security sector transformation a high priority. The authors analyze Liberia’s security environment, outline a guide to form an integrated security concept, use forces and new institutions to manage them, and assemble a complete security structure. The authors suggest the following steps to implement the new security structure: (1) develop and coordinate an integrated force plan with the U.S. and the UN; (2) design and plan a small, quick-reaction police unit and Coast Guard; (3) build court and corrections systems; and (4) consolidate, reduce, recruit, vet, and train independent police forces, custom units, and intelligence personnel.

 

A DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE FOR IRAQ. Carlos Pascual and Larry Diamond. Policy Brief, Brookings Institution. Web posted June 25, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 5 pages]

According to the Iraq Study Group, U.S. Iraqi policy must address both diplomatic and military strategies to obtain a sustainable peace. Historically, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting require peace settlements of some type. U.S. troops must provide security to create an environment where a peace agreement can be negotiated. “This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.” 

 

ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY SURVEY: 2007. Jim Rolfe. East-West Center. Web posted June 11, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 46 pages]

This report is based on a questionnaire completed by analysts of international relations and security in the Asia Pacific region. The survey and report focused on views of scholars and professionals and should not be construed as a public opinion poll. The report presents an analysis of the responses and shows a broad diversity of opinions at the regional level. The full text of the questionnaire is in the appendix.

 

SECURING, STABILIZING, AND RECONSTRUCTING AFGHANISTAN: KEY ISSUES FOR CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT. U. S. General Accountability Office (GAO). Web posted May 24, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 37 pages]

Since 2001, the U.S. has appropriated over $15 billion to secure, stabilize, and reconstruct Afghanistan. More than 50 other nations have also been instrumental in this effort. Progress has been made in economic growth, infrastructure development, and training of the Afghan army and police, but the overall security situation has deteriorated significantly in the past year.

Previously, GAO identified several programmatic improvements such as improved planning, development of strategic plans and measurable goals, specific times frames, cost estimates, and identification of external factors. In this report, GAO identified the need for better coordination between the U.S. and other nations, more flexible options for program implementation, and timelier project implementation. GAO also identified several obstacles and challenges to the U.S. efforts.

 

AA07236
Pascual, Carlos; Pollack, Kenneth THE CRITICAL BATTLES: POLITICAL RECONCILIATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ (Washington Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 3, Summer 2007, pp. 7-19)
Full text [pdf format, 13 pages]

Pascual, vice president and director for the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and former coordinator for reconstruction and stabilization at the Department of State, and Pollack, director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, present their ideas for addressing the situation in Iraq, which they describe as a “monumental task.” They believe it is vital that Iraq be recognized as a failed state and that Iran, Syria, Turkey, and neighboring Sunni states be involved. The best case would be for the surge to provide enough security to begin rebuilding Iraq’s political, economic, and social institutions and thus make way for the compromises necessary for a political settlement. The authors also emphasize the need to take into account lessons learned about peacemaking and peacekeeping: 1) civil wars require political solutions, 2) the situation must be “ripe” for solutions, 3) a truce can buy time to build trust and allow for the possibility of finding a longer-term solution, 4) a solid security environment is necessary, 5) external forces and economic support will be needed for 8-10 years after a political settlement, and 6) the effort must be multilateral, preferably under a United Nations mandate.

 

AA07235
Katz, Mark N. NON-DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS AT STATE BREAKUP: IS THERE A CONNECTION? (World Affairs, vol. 169, no. 3, Winter 2007, pp. 111-117)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

Katz, professor of government and politics at George Mason University, compares the experiences of Russia, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, and Iraq, and concludes that revolutions can prove to be a serious obstacle to democratization in states with regionally dominant minorities. In each case, revolutionary movements that initially claimed democratic aspirations evolved into authoritarian regimes, alienating ethnic and religious communities and prompting repressive measures. When political and economic conditions eventually force democratic reforms, these long-held resentments seem to metastasize into nationalist movements pursuing independence rather than trusting the regime’s second promise of democratization. While the author dwells on the regions of Chechnya, Kosovo, Aceh, Papua, and Kurdistan, he also argues that the revolution-state breakup correlation may also have possible implications for the futures of China, Iran, and Sudan as well.

 

AFRICA COMMAND: U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND THE ROLE OF THE U.S. MILITARY IN AFRICA. Lauren Ploch. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. May 16, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 35 pages]

The Bush Administration recently announced its intention to create a new combatant command, Africa Common or AFRICOM, which will promote U.S. national security in Africa. The Administration envisions that the new area will encompass all African countries except Egypt. AFICOM’s mission will be to work with African states and organizations to strengthen stability and security in the region. 

A transition team has started the implementation of the new command. It is expected to be sub-unified under EUCOM by October 2007, and achieve full capability by October 2008.

 

MOVEMENT AND ACCESS RESTRICTIONS IN THE WEST BANK: UNCERTAINTY AND INEFFICIENCY IN THE PALESTINIAN ECONOMY. World Bank Technical Team, The World Bank. May 9, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 18 pages]

In December 2004, all parties including the Government of Israel (GOI) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) agreed that economic revival of Palestine was essential. To accomplish this, a dismantling of the closure regime needs to be addressed from several perspectives. “This note looks, in particular, at the situation within the West Bank which is experiencing severe and expanding restrictions on movement and access, high levels of unpredictability and a struggling economy.”

 

ISRAELI-ARAB NEGOTIATIONS: BACKGROUND, CONFLICTS, AND U.S. POLICY. Carol Migdalovitz. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. Updated April 10, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 37 pages]

Congress is concerned about the Middle East peace process because of its oversight role in foreign policy matters, its support to Israel, and concerns from its constituents. Congress is especially apprehensive about financial and other commitments to the parties in the Middle East. This report provides background information and an overview of the conflicts in the Middle East since 1991. This report will be updated as warranted.

 

AA07228
Toft, Monica Duffy GETTING RELIGION? THE PUZZLING CASE OF ISLAM AND CIVIL WAR (International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4, Spring 2007, pp. 97-131)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author notes that from 1940 through 2000, civil wars were more common in Islamic countries than in countries dominated by other faiths. To explain this, she coins the phrase "religious outbidding," which holds that political elites will frame contentious issues as religious issues and send others to fight for a faith if they believe their survival hinges on perceptions of doctrinal legitimacy. Doctrinal legitimacy is particularly important in Islamic societies at present, she argues, as they feel threatened by the proximity both of Israel and of petroleum reserves to their holy sites. In addition, the Islamic doctrine of jihad (defense of the Islamic faith as an obligation) may contribute to the intensity of such civil wars. The author adds that the holy books of Christianity, Judaism, and Islam often have an uncompromising quality; in addition, they promise immortality in the face of physical destruction, both qualities that may make religious civil war more deadly than others.

 

SOMALIA’S FUTURE: OPTIONS FOR DIPLOMACY, ASSISTANCE, AND PEACE OPERATIONS. Jennifer Cooke and David Henek. CSIS Report, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). January 17, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 13 pages]

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center held a conference on January 17, 2007, to discuss Somalia’s future. Representatives from humanitarian assistance organizations and regional analysts described the present situation in Somalia and outlined the challenges that the U.S. and the international community face in defining a “coherent strategy that is grounded in realism, caution, and patience.” This paper reports the findings of this conference.

 

NORTHERN UGANDA: SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE. Africa Report, International Crisis Group. April 26, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 30 pages]

The peace negotiations scheduled to restart in Sudan will continue the ongoing peace process between the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan government. The present peace process is more structured and more inclusive, and it has made significant gains. 

The International Crisis Group believes that the peace process needs to follow a two track approach. The first track should concentrate on ending the military conflict; and the second track should “empower northern Ugandans, involving, among others, Acholi traditional leaders and civil society, including women and youth, to steer redevelopment, rehabilitation, and reconciliation initiatives within their community.”

 

AA07208
Michta, Andrew WHAT NEXT FOR NATO? (Orbis, vol. 51, no. 1, Winter 2007, pp. 141-153)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is no less than a test case for the future of the alliance. Its future relevance will depend on its ability to develop and maintain broad agreement on its overall missions, but Afghanistan shows a widening gulf between the United States and Europe in the willingness to equitably share priorities and risk in the name of accomplishing the alliance’s security missions. The author argues that today, Europe appears to be trapped in the strategic “pause” of the 1990s and does not share the U.S. view on the magnitude of the threat posed by international terrorism. Iraq laid bare the historical rift between the United States on one side and France and Germany on the other, in addition to highlighting the contrast between the more skeptical “old Europe” and “new Europe” more eager to support U.S. objectives. While NATO’s role in Iraq is marginal, the clock of NATO’s future continues ticking in an increasingly uphill battle in Afghanistan.

 

AA07190
Secor, Laura. KEEP AWAY: THE CASE FOR DOING NOTHING
(New Republic, April 23, 2007, pp. 15-16)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

As part of a series of four essays written by different authors under the title “Iran: What Next?” Secor argues: “Getting involved in the Iranian opposition might make us (Americans) feel good, but it will only hurt the people we seek to help.” Secor says accepting U.S. aid only endangers Iranians that are part of a democratic movement she describes as “large, organized, intellectually sophisticated and politically skilled.” NGOs and other groups that accept U.S. aid, she notes, are labeled as part of a U.S. plot to overthrow the Islamic Republic. What the Iranian oppositions wants, and what the United State should do more of, Secor writes, is promote cultural and academic exchanges. “This will undoubtedly sound like a disappointing comedown to those who dream of fomenting revolution by remote control. But there is a deep and genuine thirst among Iranians for knowledge and experience of Western liberalism,” she writes. Slaking that thirst, she says, can have far-reaching, positive consequences that are in the best interest of the United States.

 

AA07185
McCain, John. A MORE HUMBLE U.S., A BETTER EUROPE FOR MUSLIMS
(New Perspectives Quarterly, vol. 23, no. 4, Fall 2006, pp. 11-13)
Full text [html format]

Senator John McCain expounds on his views on democracy, Muslims, terrorism, and the safety of America. Although no other major terror attack has occurred in the U.S., since 9/11, the safety and security of America is not predictable and the future looks grim. McCain believes that we must pay more attention to the political and social climate in other countries and be more humble to avoid anti-Americanism and volatile situations that could easily erupt into Islamic extremism.

 

AA07184
Kirchick, James. AFRICA'S NEW HEGEMON: FROM CAPE TO CAIRO VIA BEIJING
(Weekly Standard, Vol. 12, No. 24, March 5, 2007, pp 14-16)
Full text [html format]

The author notes that China is actively wooing African countries in order to secure sources of oil for its ever-expanding economy. Kirchick writes that oil is the latest motivation behind China’s interest in Africa -- in the 1960s, Beijing made ideological contacts with African Marxist movements and governments, among them Robert Mugabe's African National Union in Zimbabwe. That has changed over the years, Kirchick said, to selling Chinese weaponry to whomever in Africa would buy it, including Zimbabwe and Sudan, the latter using it to prolong the slaughter in Darfur. But now, Kirchick says, "Oil, simply put, drives Chinese policy in Africa." Angola is now China's third-leading oil supplier (behind Iran and Saudi Arabia). China also buys 60 percent of Sudan's oil output. Whereas the United States and most western governments stress democracy, human rights, and the like, China "demands no such assurances from its partners."

 

AA07182
Hassner, Ron E. THE PATH TO INTRACTABILITY: TIME AND THE ENTRENCHMENT OF TERRITORIAL DISPUTES
(International Security, Vol. 31, No. 3, Winter 2006/7, pp. 107-138)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author notes that modern geopolitics is rife with disputes among nations about seemingly insignificant territories, for example, the dispute between England and Spain over the rock of Gibraltar. He points out that disputes over territory are more likely to lead to war than other kinds, and coins the phrase 'entrenchment' to describe long-running territorial disputes. Hassner analyzes three aspects of entrenchment. First, he argues, as territory is disputed over for a long time, the cohesion of the territory becomes stronger due to infrastructure buildout by whoever controls it at the moment; that makes it harder for a nation to negotiate it away. Second, as boundaries are negotiated and demarcated, it becomes harder to fudge them for the sake of peace, and hard for armies to ignore when they are crossed. Third, personal sacrifice, family connections, and myth-building on the part of territorial settlers and explorers reinforce the conviction that the land is unique and that substitutes could never be found. The author gives numerous case histories, including Kashmir and the Golan Heights, and has some suggestions as to how to resolve such disputes.

 

CRAFTING A U.S. POLICY ON ASIA: BACKGROUNDER.
Carin Zissis. Council on Foreign Relations. April 10, 2007.
Full Text [sections in html format, various pagings]

U.S. policy in the East Asian region has been focused on long-running conflicts; such as the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait; but after 9/11, U.S. attentions shifted to the Middle East and counterterrorism efforts. A consensus of experts believes that “American’s standing in the Asia-Pacific region has suffered over the past decade”; and to recoup our prestige in the region, American policies need to concentrate on strengthening multilateral organizations such as ASEAN and APEC.

 

IS THE UNITED STATES LOSING TURKEY?
Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush. Working Paper, New America Foundation. March 25, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 35 pages]

In February, the Hudson Institute convened a small working group “to ascertain whether the United States risks “losing” Turkey as a long-time and critical ally.” This report draws from the discussions that took place at this workshop as well as an independent analysis written by Messrs. Memon and Winbush. The conclusion of the participants of the working group was that the alliance between the U.S. and Turkey “is now in serious trouble,” but there is time to act if leaders on both sides move quickly.

 

U.S. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CHALLENGES TO THEM.
Stephen J. Blank. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. March 22, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 53 pages]

“The author assesses the interests of the United States in Central Asia and the challenges to them. These challenges consist of the revival of the Taliban, Russo-Chinese efforts to oust U.S. strategic presence from the area, and the possibility of internal instability generated by the regression of local regimes form democratizing and liberalizing policies. The author then recommends policies designed to meet those challenges to American policy in this increasingly more important area of the world.”

 

CHINESE PERCEPTIONS OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL SECURITY THREATS.
Susan L. Craig. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. Web posted April 2, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 172 pages]

The author argues that to understand China’s motivations and decisions, we need to also understand how it sees the world. In order to accomplish this, the author examined China’s scholars, journalists, and leaders.

China has two main types of national security threats: traditional (the U.S., Japan, and India) and nontraditional (social and economic disparities, environmental degradation, and energy insecurity). The author has determined from her research that for China to overcome these threats, its leadership must not only look outward to foster cooperation but inward to make internal reforms.

 

AA07164
Marten, Kimberly. WARLORDISM IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE.
(International Security, Vol. 31, No. 3, Winter 2006/7, pp. 41-73)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

Some call them failed states, some call them dens of warlords, but in fact history is full of examples of nations and empires that disintegrated into segmented territories ruled by bandits or, at best, feudal overlords, or of such territories that never cohered into nations. In this comparative study, the author, professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University, compares various historical instances, including medieval Europe, China at certain stages, and modern Somalia and Afghanistan. The conclusion she draws is that warlordism is often rational for warlords and can be difficult to eradicate. History, she believes, shows that warlordism can be defeated best when a national economic interest group believes that it is in their strong economic interest to create a predictable economy. In addition, it helps if better ideas of society and governance are introduced, simultaneously, from outside the warlord zone. Absent these changes, the capacity of outsiders to influence warlords may be weak.

 

AA07162
Jarvik, Laurence. NGOs: A ‘NEW CLASS’ IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.
Orbis, vol. 51, no. 2, March 2007, pp. 217-238)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author, a writer and conservative critic, asserts that nongovernmental organizations have attempted to take control of civil society in many developing countries, displacing traditional governing institutions. This serves the interests of organized crime and extremist groups, who benefit from weak central government, and hinders the West's ability to mobilize allies to participate in the war on terror. NGO leaders who are hostile to the nation-state itself seek to transform a voluntary system of participation in international organizations by sovereign member-states via a “power shift” to an alliance of multinational corporations and NGOs. He argues that since they do not possess the traditional sources of legitimacy enjoyed by nation-states, they seek to impose their will by financial or other means, i.e., “sanctions” or “humanitarian intervention.” Jarvik asserts that a new class of NGOs has emerged that is essentially opposed to the diplomatic, legal, and military measures required for dealing with conflict.

 

STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES: POST-CONFLICT POLITICAL ECONOMY CONSIDERATIONS. 
Zoë Cooprider, Merriam Mashatt and James Wasserstrom. USIPeace Briefing, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted March 22, 2007.
Full Text [sections in html format, various pagings]

The U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) working group met to discuss the viability of revitalizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Iraq. At one time, nearly 200 SOEs produced consumer and durable goods in Iraq, but these were shut down at the beginning of the stabilization and reconstruction efforts in 2003. After eight months of research, the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Business Transformation selected ten factories that will be reopened within the next two or three months. This briefing “provides an overview of the SOEs in Iraq as well as relevant insights learned from the United Nations Mission in Kosovo’s experience overseeing SOEs . . .”

 

IRAN: “WEAKLING” OR “HEGEMON”? 
Anthony H. Cordesman. Review Draft, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). February 20, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 23 pages]

This paper assesses Iran’s capabilities and intentions and delineates what the author perceives to be its current and potential threats. In his opinion those threats are its conventional military power, its unconventional forces, its ability to use proxies or partners, its potential nuclear power and long-range missiles, and its potential religious and ideological threats. The author then provides “several steps that Iran’s Arab neighbors need to take to structure the best mix of deterrence and incentives for Iran” to bring about regional stability.

 

EXPANDING THE “JIHAD”: HIZB’ALLAH’S SUNNI ISLAMIST NETWORK. 
Bilal Y. Saab and Bruce Riedel. Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution. February 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 7 pages]

“Iraq’s descent into civil war and Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East have dominated discussions throughout Washington’s foreign policy community. Many have viewed and interpreted these developments from the prism of a growing divide between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims.” However, the authors see the Lebanese conflict as one rooted in historical trends as opposed to a Sunnis and Shi’ites division with Hizb’allah as the “leader of a broad based Muslim resistance movement against the United States and its allies . . .” This paper discusses some options available to the U.S. in dealing with Hizb’allah and the Lebanon situation as a whole.

 

AA07126
King-Irani, Laurie. IRAQ: A LOOK BACK
(Orbis, vol. 51, no. 1, Winter 2007, pp. 91-106)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author, a specialist in local governance and conflict resolution at Washington DC’s Catholic University, evaluates the prospects for postwar rehabilitation of Iraqi society. Historically, Iraq’s diversity has complicated efforts to develop a unified national vision, but today a common desire for stability unifies communities -– particularly for the Ba’athist regime’s victims, the internally displaced, and those who have lost family members to ongoing sectarian violence. The new Iraqi government and the United States must lean from the mistakes of recent years and rededicate themselves establishing and upholding the rule of law if they are truly dedicated to building democracy. Without it, the author warns that the chaos will continue, and will likely spread throughout the region.

 

WHAT ISLAMISTS NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT: THE CASE OF THE EGYPTIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.
Amr Hamzawy, Marina Ottaway, and Nathan J. Brown. Policy Outlook, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Web posted February 21, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 10 pages]

This paper addresses some of the comments and concerns expressed by analysts after publication of the authors’ paper entitled Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World: Exploring the Gray Zones (Carnegie Paper 67). Although they do not attempt to address “all the reasons for suspicion,” the authors seek “to explain to Islamist movements the reasons for the lingering suspicions about Islamist movements in the West.” The authors have written from the “point of view as analysts working in the framework of liberal democratic political principles and political systems.” The second part of the article addresses the U.S. and other Western governments’ concerns about Islamist movements.

 

YEAR IN REVIEW: 2006: NEW CHALLENGES, NEW HORIZONS.
United Nations Peace Operations, The United Nations. Web posted March 6, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 44 pages]

2006 was a record-breaker in terms of deployment for peace operations--just under 100,000 uniformed and civilian personnel serving throughout the world. Additionally, there was an unprecedented growth of peace agreements and ceasefires or cessation of hostilities accomplished with UN political and diplomatic support. This annual report provides an overview of each of the areas where support was provided.

 

AA07080
Prendergast, John; Thomas-Jensen, Colin. BLOWING THE HORN
(Foreign Affairs, vol. 86, no. 2, March/April 2007, pp. 59-74)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The two writers, both with the International Crisis Group (Prendergast is a former Clinton administration official), argue that long-term U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa are at risk due to a narrow concentration on fighting the war on terrorism, rather than resolving simmering conflicts or promoting good governance there. The authors provide a useful primer on the tangled relations among Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya, on one hand, and the tragedy of Darfur and the inter-locking rebellions in Sudan that involve portions of Uganda, Chad, and the Central African Republic, on the other. They fault current U.S. policy for “focusing on hunting down [terrorist] suspects without also investing in state building” -– a strategy which they say leaves the Horn unstable and, thus, even more attractive to terrorist groups. Calling for a comprehensive U.S. regional plan, the authors suggest: working with the African Union and the United Nations on a Greater Horn peace initiative that creates, among other things, conflict resolution cells staffed by diplomats to secure agreements and support their implementation; boosting peacekeeping capabilities through the use of UN and AU troops with a mandate to protect civilians; and, gaining real leverage through international support and coordination of substantial penalties for parties refusing to comply with peacekeeping efforts. They conclude, “The essential lesson of U.S. counterterrorism policy over the last five years is that in order for local Muslim populations to take the U.S. counterterrorism agenda seriously, the United States must take their state-building and power-sharing agendas seriously, too.”

 

SOMALIA: THE TOUGH PART IS AHEAD.
Africa Briefing, International Crisis Group. January 26, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

“On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia’s woes. There is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG [Transitional Federal Government] is unable to fill.” For a sustained peace, the TFG needs to be reconstituted “as a genuine government of national unity” and international pressure must be applied.

 

FROM REJECTION TO ACCEPTANCE: ISRAELI NATIONAL SECURITY THINKING AND PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD.
Shlomo Brom. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted February 15, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

This report follows the evolution of Israeli national security thinking of an independent Palestinian state. The author outlines the obstacles and the opportunities that face this peace process. “The international community widely accepts a two-state solution as the framework for resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli approach to this formula has undergone a revolutionary change in the past two decades, from total rejection to broad acceptance.”

 

AA07074
Gray, Colin S. STABILITY OPERATIONS IN STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE: A SKEPTICAL VIEW
(Parameters, vol. 36, no. 2, Summer 2006, pp. 4-14)
Full text

The author examines the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report (QDR) and analyzes the strategy behind the involvement of US forces in stability operations. There will be little policy demand for stability operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, given the dampened domestic enthusiasm for the "long war". The reconstruction operations that will be put in place inevitably reflect US culture and are unlikely to be successful in American terms. Though the QDR suggests that Iraq should serve "as a model of freedom in the Middle East", this may not be possible in reality.

 

PUBLIC OPINION IN IRAN AND AMERICA ON KEY INTERNATIONAL ISSUES.
Steven Kull. WorldPublicOpnion.Org of the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and the Center on Policy Attitudes. January 24, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 40 pages]

A poll of 1,000 randomly selected adults was conducted in Iran and a similar randomly selected set was polled in the United States. The face-to-face interviews consisted of 134 questions dealing with the U.S.- Iran relationship. The primary finding was:

“Although Iranians show substantial concern about the conflict between Islamic and Western cultures, a majority rejects the idea that it is inevitable. Instead, a majority of Iranians believe that it is possible for the two cultures to find common ground. Iranians are divided about whether they should only emphasize strengthening ties with Muslim countries or put an equal effort into building better relations with the West. Americans share Iranian concerns about the conflict between Islamic and Western countries and lean toward believing that it is possible to find common ground. However, a substantially larger minority of Americans than Iranians believe that conflict is inevitable.”

 

THE URGE TO REMEMBER: THE ROLE OF MEMORIALS IN SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION AND TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE.
Stabilization and Reconstruction Series, U.S. Institute of Peace. January 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 24 pages]

This report outlines some of the challenges by those seeking to help repair societies that are emerging from violent conflict through the use of memorialization. Some of the issues raised were:

• Memorials serve as a way to honor those who suffered;
• Memorialization occurs throughout the conflict;
• Outside providers such as international mission staff, peacekeepers, international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and humanitarian organizations are often inadvertently drawn into local disputes;
• It is not easy for these outsiders to determine their roles, but they often encourage former enemies to work together; and
• Tribunals and truth commissions share in these projects by collecting documents and other materials used to establish historical truths.

 

THINGS FALL APART: CONTAINING THE SPILLOVER FROM AN IRAQI CIVIL WAR. Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M.
Pollack. Analysis Paper No. 11, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institute. Web posted February 5, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 140 pages]

“This study draws on the history of the recent civil wars in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, Congo, Croatia, Georgia, Kosovo, Lebanon, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Somalia, and Tajikistan. It employs lessons derived from these cases regarding the impact of full-scale civil wars on the security, prosperity, and national interests of other states to derive recommendations for the United States as it confronts the possibility of a similar conflict in Iraq.”

 

IN THEIR OWN WORDS: HIZBOLLAH’S STRATEGY IN THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION.
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb. Policy Outlook No. 32, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. January 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 14 pages]

“The confrontation between the March 8 opposition, led by Hizbollah, and the March 14 forces that control the Lebanese government threatens to shatter Lebanon’s stability.” After Syria withdrew its military last year, there were high hopes that Lebanon would be able to attain sovereignty, democracy, and prosperity; but the election of 2005 and the Israeli-Hizbollah war have further divided the country.

“In a series of interviews conducted in early December, Hizbollah officials present their own, different views of the confrontation. The officials present the crisis as a confrontation between a government ready to do the bidding of the United States and Israel and a national opposition committed to resisting this subjugation; between a government that represents only a portion of the population and national opposition asking for a government of national unity in which all parties would be represented.”

 

AA07060
Telhami, Shibley LEBANESE IDENTITY AND ISRAELI SECURITY IN THE SHADOWS OF THE 2006 WAR (Current History, vol. 106, no. 696, January 2007, pp. 21-26)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author, a professor at the University of Maryland and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, reports on the findings of a poll he conducted in Lebanon following the August 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. The poll found growing divisions within Lebanon’s Christian, Druze, Sunni, and Shiite communities, which bode ill for the Israel’s efforts to establish an effective deterrent to future attacks. While the majority of Lebanese polled felt that Hezbollah emerged as the “winner” of the conflict, the militants gained significant popularity among the country’s Shiite community. In other findings, the poll found growing support for non-state actor Hezbollah, a divergence of views of Israel’s relative military strength, but an evenly matched opinion among all communities that brokering a comprehensive Middle East Peace would be the most significant way to improve attitudes toward the United States, far surpassing a withdrawal from Iraq or discontinuing aid to Israel.

 

AA07059
Ottaway, Marina WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IRAQ?
(Current History, vol. 106, no. 696, January 2007, pp. 42-43)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program, finds today’s Iraq “a broken country without central authority” straddling both internal ethnosectarian conflicts and external insecurity caused by the rise of Shiite power from Iran and its impact across the Middle East. National reconciliation has failed, says the author, who instead advocates the de facto partitioning of Iraq into autonomous regions. “The solution to a situation that has spun out of control is beyond the capacity of the United States to devise and above all to implement on its own,” the author says, leaving little option but to engage with the Iraqi people and their neighbors rather than continuing attempts to play “the dominant force that can reshape the region to suit its goals.”

 

AA07058
Karn, Alexander M. DEPOLARIZING THE PAST: THE ROLE OF HISTORICAL COMMISSIONS IN CONFLICT MEDIATION AND RECONCILIATION
(Journal of International Affairs, vol. 60, no. 1, Fall 2006, pp. 31-50)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

Karn, history instructor at California State University, asserts that establishing peace in the wake of large-scale historical injustices is difficult and sometimes dispiriting work. Rival groups often conjure vastly different memories of the same events, and these divergences reinforce cycles of violence and deepen feelings of resentment. He argues that if we begin to think of inter-group relations as an evolving process marked by ebb and flow in which there are intermittent opportunities for mutual understanding and cooperation, then historical commissions can undoubtedly play a role in promoting shared perspective and solidarity. Karn concludes that commissions have the ability to move historical discourse away from the accusatory framework used by partisans to support their claims of victimization and instead move toward an explanatory framework that offers a new context for misconstrued historical facts. The problem with past attempts to incorporate historical understanding into mediation practice has not been the instrumentalist view of storytelling, but rather the fact that mediators have so far made too little of this potentially powerful tool.

 

CHINESE NUCLEAR FORCES AND U.S. NUCLEAR WAR PLANNING.
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris and Matthew G. McKinzie. Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council. November 2006.
Full Text [pdf format, 261 pages]

A nuclear arms race is emerging between the U.S. and China, but it is not on the scale that existed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The U.S.-China relationship is very different than that of the U.S.-Soviet relationship in view of the fact that China supplies the U.S. with an array of goods and holds billions of dollars of U.S. debt. The authors believe that neither country would benefit from an arms race.

 

AA07040
Baktiari, Bahman IRAN’S CONSERVATIVE REVIVAL
(Current History, vol. 106, no. 696, January 2007, pp. 3-10)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

Under the leadership of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian conservatives are out to make the Islamic Republic “more Islamic than a republic.” Yet at the same time, the government has become increasingly nationalistic in its bid for regional dominance since the 2003 removal of Saddam Hussein, marking what the author sees as a return to foreign policy behaviors reminiscent of the pre-revolutionary government. Ahmadinejad has yet to deliver on his populist political promises of economic growth and redistribution of energy revenue, but his image as an honest leader in a sea of corrupt politicians and his willingness to resist international pressure to abandon nuclear enrichment activities has shored up his public standing. While a wide range of opinions among Iran’s leaders preclude predictions of Tehran’s future foreign policy path, the author argues that U.S. policy failures in the region have only helped improve Iran’s position and that aggressive efforts at regime change would only further strengthen Ahmadinejad.

 

AA07042
Hegland, Corine SILVER LINING IN SOMALIA’S CHAOS
(National Journal, Vol. 39, No. 3, January 20, 2007, pp. 60-61)
Full Text available from your nearest American Library

The author reviews the history of the Islamic Courts Union movement in Somalia, from their short-lived rise to power, which brought a degree of peace and quiet to the country, and their subsequent decline, resulting from their imposition of strict Islamic law and the intervention of the Ethiopian army in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Pointing out recent accomplishments in Somalia, such as president Ahmed’s meeting with former presidents and his negotiation of a disarmament agreement with Mogadishu warlords, she also mentions some of the difficulties faced by the TFG and provides a list of conditions which would allow Somalia to become a functioning country again -– if the TFG “can maintain security and build popular support, if the Ethiopians don’t provoke an insurgency, if foreign peacekeepers come in, if the world find fund for reconstruction, if the warlords don’t take over again, if the Islamists don’t return, and if the long-feuding clans can agree on a government.” In spite of all these “ifs,” she sees “a bit of optimism.”