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Elections Archive
DO LOWER CONTRIBUTION LIMITS DECREASE PUBLIC CORRUPTION? Center for Competitive Politics. January 2009.
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The analysis shows that campaign contribution limits do not produce less corruption by public officials. The author compares Department of Justice data on public corruption convictions to information on contribution limits in all 50 states. The analysis found no correlation at all between contribution limits and the corruption of public officials, undermining a frequent claim by supporters of campaign finance restrictions that lower contribution limits will somehow inhibit corruption and create good government.
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NO TIME TO VOTE: CHALLENGES FACING AMERICA’S OVERSEAS MILITARY VOTES. Pew Center on the States. Kil Huh et al. Web posted January 8, 2009.
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One-third of all U.S. states do not provide enough time to vote for military personnel stationed overseas and as many as half of all states need to improve their absentee voting process to ensure that the votes of servicemen and women abroad will be counted, according to the report.
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INSIDE OBAMA’S SWEEPING VICTORY. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. November 5, 2008. Full Text [HTML format, various paging]
Barack Obama captured the White House on the strength of a substantial electoral shift toward the Democratic Party and by winning a number of key groups in the middle of the electorate. Overall, 39% of voters were Democrats while 32% were Republicans, a dramatic shift from 2004 when the electorate was evenly divided. The Democratic advantage in Election Day party identification was significantly larger than in either of Bill Clinton’s victories. Without a doubt, the overwhelming backing of younger voters was a critical factor in Obama’s victory, according to an analysis of National Election Pool exit polls that were provided by National Public Radio. Obama drew two-thirds (66%) of the vote among those younger than age 30.
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WHITE SUPREMACISTS VENT RAGE OVER OBAMA’S WIN. Anti-Defamation League. Web posted November 8, 2008.
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In the aftermath of the election victory of Barack Obama, white supremacists rushed to online discussion forums to vent anger and disbelief that voters had chosen an African-American candidate as the next president of the U.S. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) says that anger among white supremacists and other right-wing extremists in response. According to ADL, racists are incredulous that Obama was elected primarily by white voters and are seething with anger at the prospect of an America led by an African-American man.
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Ballen, Kenneth BIN LADEN'S SOFT SUPPORT (Washington Monthly, vol. 40, no. 5, May/June 2008, pp. 19-23)
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Ballen's public opinion surveys of Muslim countries indicate that even among bin Laden's strongest supporters, only 1-3 percent would vote for bin Laden or the Taliban to run the country. In Pakistan, bin Laden and al-Qaeda supporters considered an independent judiciary, free press, free elections and an improving economy the most important goals for their government--not implementing Sharia law. Based on the survey data, Ballen, president of a non-profit public opinion organization, has three recommendations: support for bin Laden is soft and can be made softer with right policies; the U.S. should demonstrate respect and compassion by improving the lives of individual Muslims by increasing student and work visas, direct humanitarian aid and trade agreements; and more effective counterterrorism strategies.
The Electoral College: An e-Journal. International Information Programs, Department of State. September 2008 Lizza, Ryan THE CODE OF THE WEST: WHAT BARACK OBAMA CAN LEARN FROM BILL RITTER (New Yorker, Vol. 84, no. 6, Sept. 1, 2008, pp. 62-67) In his book Whistling Past Dixie, Thomas Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (and a recent US Embassy-sponsored speaker in South Africa) argues that the Democratic Pary should give up on the South and focus on the West. The book was widely read in Democratic circles when it was published in 2006, and may have been a factor in the selection of Denver for this year's National Convention. Ryan Lizza, the New Yorker's Washington correspondent, spends time with Colorado's Democratic governor Bill Ritter, and ponders on the changing demographics and economic landscape of this state & the West, and their implications for the future of the Democratic Party. AA08269 While the future direction of American diplomacy hangs in the balance, neoconservatives and realists are battling on the Republican foreign policy agenda. Senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Derek Chollet, and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, James Goldgeier, offer an inside look at the struggle for the foreign policy strategy of the Republican Party. Presidential candidate John McCain describes himself as a “realistic idealist” and would rely on U.S. leadership of a multilateral organization based on a community of values. Standing up for values should remain an important part of foreign policy, but a future McCain administration must also be willing to compromise in order to make progress in several areas around the globe. AA08272 Yglesias, Atlantic Monthly associate editor, focuses on the foreign policy views of 2008 U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama, and on American public opinion of Obama’s foreign policy views. Obama demonstrates a new approach to foreign policy by indicating a willingness to hold direct negotiations with leaders of rogue states, commit to eventual global nuclear disarmament, balance American military priorities toward Afghanistan, soften the embargo on Cuba and widen the focus of democracy promotion to include other development goals, with the objective of more effectively preventing terrorist recruitment. State Governments’ Use of Help America Vote Act Funds. [United States Election Assistance Commission]. Web posted July 22, 2008. The U.S. Election Assistance Commission has delivered a report to Congress on state government spending of Help America Vote Act (HAVA) funds, which amounts to nearly three billion dollars. States have spent 67 percent of it and the 64 percent of the spent went toward acquiring and administering voting system technology. YOU DON’T NEED A HOME TO VOTE! National Coalition for the Homeless. Web posted August 20, 2008. Equal access to the right to vote is a crucial part of maintaining a true democracy. Voting allows people to play a part in deciding the direction of their communities by voicing their opinion on issues that are important and relevant to their lives. Each election, low income and homeless individuals vote at a lower rate than people with higher incomes. For years, homeless citizens have had obstacles to registering. The manual provides ideas to help overcome the many obstacles and outlines multiple strategies to register, educate, and mobilize voters. AA08209 As part of an ongoing series, National Journal is examining the current status of potential swing states. In this issue, the author writes about Michigan, saying, “when things appear bleak elsewhere in the nation, they can seem desperate in Michigan.” A state heavily reliant on the auto-industry, Michigan has been hard hit by economic troubles and foreclosures. It is considered to have one of the worst economies in the nation. Simendinger examines what Michigan residents are looking for in a president through the eyes of a family with a long history of supporting candidates from both parties. While it is clear the people of Michigan are unhappy with the state of the economy, it is unclear which party they “blame” for this, which is why it is difficult to predict which candidate will win. The article also reviews the presidential candidates’ messages to Michigan voters. AA08194 Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) is now the prospective nominee for his party’s presidential nomination. Among the many issues in his party’s platform, he has made Iraq the battle he has chosen to fight, despite criticism from members of the Republican Party that such a stand could hurt him and the party in the November elections. However, in the U.S. Senate, senators are reluctant to impugn one another’s motives or integrity, whatever their disagreements on policy, including strong support or opposition to the Iraqi conflict. Many of McCain’s colleagues who were also Vietnam veterans, like Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska) and Jim Webb (D-Virginia), suspect that the senator, a former POW in Vietnam, came away from his captivity with little of their disillusionment -- he spent the worst years of the war in a Hanoi prison camp, giving him a different perspective from his fellow ‘in country’ colleagues who believe that some wars simply can’t be won on the battlefield, no matter how many soldiers are sent there to die. Instead, McCain is staking everything on the notion that the American public can be convinced that the Iraq war is winnable and worth the continued sacrifice. Without that national retrenching, the senator admits that this war, like the one in Vietnam, is probably doomed. INSIDE FUNDRAISING FOR THE 2008 PARTY CONVENTIONS. A new analysis finds that both Democrats and Republicans are using local “host committees” in Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul as vehicles for unlimited soft money contributions to their respective 2008 party conventions. Host committees are expected to pay for as much as 80% of the expenses for the conventions, which produce the biggest and longest political ads of the presidential campaign. The Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service have permitted a vast expansion of host committee fundraising on the grounds that since these organizations are nonpartisan “charities” or “business leagues,” contributing to them does not present an issue of potential political corruption or appearance of corruption. [Note: contains copyrighted material] THE INTERNET AND THE 2008 ELECTION. A record-breaking 46% of Americans have used the internet, email or cell phone text messaging to get news about the campaign, share their views and mobilize others. A significant number of voters are also using the internet to gain access to campaign events and primary documents. Online activism using social media has also grown substantially since the first time we probed this issue during the 2006 midterm elections. Yet despite the growth in the number of people who are politically engaged online, internet users express some ambivalence about the role of the internet in the campaign. On one hand, 28% of wired Americans say that the internet makes them feel more personally connected to the campaign, and 22% say that they would not be as involved in the campaign if not for the internet. At the same time, however, even larger numbers feel that the internet magnifies the most extreme viewpoints and is a source of misinformation for many voters. [Note: contains copyrighted material] CHURCHES AND CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY: ANALYSIS UNDER TAX AND CAMPAIGN FINANCE LAW. Churches and other houses of worship qualify for tax-exempt status as Internal Revenue Code 501(c)(3) organizations. One qualification for 501(c)(3) status is that these organizations may not participate in political campaign activity. They are permitted under the tax laws to engage in other political activities (e.g., distribute voter guides and invite candidates to speak at church functions) so long as such activity does not support or oppose a candidate. Additionally, church leaders may engage in campaign activity in their capacity as private individuals without negative tax consequences to the church. This report examines the restrictions imposed on campaign activity by churches under tax and campaign finance laws and discusses recent IRS inquiries into such activity.
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More than 100 million voters are likely to cast ballots in nationwide U.S. elections November 4. But only 538 men and women will elect the next president of the United States, and those elections will take place in 50 state capitals and in Washington, D.C., December 15. This indirect election system, called the Electoral College and devised in 1787 by the framers of the Constitution, puzzles Americans and non-Americans alike. It reflects the federal governing system of allocating powers not only to a national government and to the people but also to the states. We hope that this issue of eJournal USA will improve your understanding of the historical reasons for the Electoral College system and how it functions.
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Chollet, Derek; Goldgeier, James MCCAIN’S CHOICE (National Interest, no. 96, July/August 2008, pp. 68-72)
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Yglesias, Matthew THE ACCIDENTAL FOREIGN POLICY (The Atlantic, vol. 301, no. 5, June 2008, pp. 28-30)
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Simendinger, Alexis MICHIGAN: THE DEPRESSED STATE (National Journal, vol. 40, no. 26, June 28, 2008) Full Text [HTML format]
Bai, Matt THE MCCAIN DOCTRINES (New York Times Magazine, May 18, 2008, pp. 40//70)
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The Campaign Finance Institute. Web posted June 8, 2008.
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Pew Internet & American Life Project. Aaron Smith and Lee Rainie. June 15, 2008.
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Congressional Research Service, RL34447, Library of Congress. Erika Lunder and L. Paige Whitaker. Web posted May 9, 2008.
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Simendinger, Alexis NEW MEDIA AS THE MESSAGE (National Journal, vol.40, no. 16, April 19, 2008, pp. 40-44)
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National Journal staff writer Simendinger describes the Obama campaign's deft use of mainstream media to attract potential voters to its "offline" campaign network. Using text messaging and e-mail signals to young voters that Obama understands who they are and they should trust him, says political communications expert Kathleen Hall Jamison. The author quotes Arizona State University Professor Matthew Hindman, who adds that "Hillary Clinton would have been the nominee but for the Internet, and she would have secured the nomination -- as her campaign expected -- by Super Tuesday." Other experts wonder if the medium is as important as the message. All agree that the Internet, social networking and other new technologies for organizing potential voters will become even more important in future elections as young people rely less on mainstream media for news and political information.
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Brownstein, Ronald THE FIRST 21ST-CENTURY CAMPAIGN (National Journal, vol. 40, no. 16, April 19, 2008)
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Brownstein examines the many reasons why he believes that the Democratic battle for the presidential nomination will be remembered as “the first true 21st-century campaign.” He believes that the pairing of intense anti-Bush emotions on the part of Democrats combined with major advances in information technology are responsible for creating this new style of campaigning. Brownstein says “this transformation may be changing the model of what it takes to succeed in presidential politics.” No longer is television the most important medium, rather it is the ability to leverage the Internet to inspire supporters to fundraise and organize on a candidate’s behalf. The Democratic candidates’ capacity to raise money, ability to communicate with supporters at a low cost and capacity of supporters to communicate with like-minded people independently of the campaign has demonstrated the strengths of this new style of campaigning. Brownstein’s article provides numerous examples of both Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s successful campaign techniques.
THE CASE FOR KEEPING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
American Enterprise Institute, AEI On the Issues. Walter Berns. April 7, 2008.
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Debate over whether to keep the Electoral College or move to a system of direct popular election of the president occurs in every presidential election season. Over the years, several hundred proposed Constitutional amendments have suggested amending or eliminating it, but, since early in the 19th century, the Electoral College has been maintained unaltered. In this article, the author outlines the arguments in favor of the Electoral College and dissects the proposals of those who would nullify it without having to abolish it.
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TAIWAN'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Congressional Research Service, RS22853, Library of Congress. Kerry Dumbaugh. April 2, 2008.
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On March 22, 2008, voters in Taiwan elected Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist (KMT) Party as president. Mr. Ma out-polled rival candidate Frank Hsieh, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), by a margin of 58% to 42%. Coming on the heels of the KMT’s sweeping victory in January’s legislative elections, the result appears to be a further repudiation of DPP leader, President Chen Shui-bian’s eight-year record of emphasizing a pro-independence political agenda at the expense of economic issues. President-elect Ma, who will begin his tenure on May 20, 2008, has promised to improve Taiwan’s economic performance and to improve it’s damaged relations with the People’s Republic of China.
HOW AND WHEN EXPERIENCE IN A PRESIDENT COUNTS.
Brookings Institution. Charles O. Jones. April 3, 2008.
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Experience has become a dominant issue in the 2008 presidential campaign. Initially thought to be an open contest, the range and types of candidate experience have varied substantially: sitting and former senators, representatives and governors, and a former mayor and first lady. Stress on experience justifies a review of the historical record. How might the historical experience of experience apply to 2008?
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BACK TO PAPER: A CASE STUDY.
Pew Center on the States; electionline.org briefing. Web posted April 15, 2008.
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Six years and millions of dollars into a major overhaul of the U.S. election system, a number of states are contemplating returning to paper-based voting systems after failed or troubled experiments with newer voting technology. Electronic voting machines were considered the ideal solution to the problems of punch-card voting shortly after the troubled 2000 election. Direct-recording electronic (DRE) machines offer accessibility for people with disabilities, prevent over-voting, and eliminate the subjectivity of paper-based balloting. But DREs also began to raise questions shortly after their deployment in major battleground states, including Florida, Ohio and California as well as in Colorado and New Mexico. These questions, along with problems at the polls, prompted decisions to scrap the recently purchased machines.
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AMERICANS FOLLOWING PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN MORE CLOSELY THAN IN 2004.
National Annenberg Election Survey. Kate Kenski, et. al. March 24, 2008.
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The 2008 presidential campaign has produced a surge in political interest among all demographic groups as reported by the National Annenberg Election Survey. Among the variables are age, income level, education level, and geographic location. Numbers are significantly higher than in the last presidential election.
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FEBRUARY FUNDRAISING FRENZY FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES.
Campaign Finance Institute; CFI Analysis of reported candidate fundraising through February 29, 2008. Web posted March 21, 2008.
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This report provides an analysis of the candidates’ monthly reports as filed with the Federal Election Commission on March 20, 2008. It notes that Barack Obama raised more money in February than any other candidate and that more than half of the money raised by the two major Democratic candidates came from “small donors” who gave $200 or less. It also noted, however, that “small donors” tend to give multiple times so that the term “small donor” is somewhat misleading.
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Prevost, Alicia; Thurber, James DELEGATE CHEAT SHEET (Politics, vol. 29, no. 3, March 2008, pp. 38-41)
Full text available from your nearest American Library
The authors, both with the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, offer a primer on the role and selection of delegates in the presidential primaries. The Democratic and Republican parties determine the number of delegates based on a given state’s population and its past support for the party’s presidential nominee. So-called “pledged” delegates are those who have indicated their support for a particular presidential candidate. Generally, delegates are awarded proportionately, based on statewide election results, but are “winner-take-all”, in the case of some Republican statewide contests. The so-called “superdelegates” are more accurately called unpledged delegates, as they are not required to pledge support to a candidate until their vote at the party convention; almost all unpledged delegates are picked by virtue of an elected office they already hold.
EUROPEANS AND THE U.S. ELECTION.
Brookings Institution. Philip Gordon. March 20, 2008.
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Europe’s interest in the upcoming American election is well warranted, and not only because of the drama of close races or the historic nature of some of the main candidates. This is so because Europeans realize that whereas they have no vote, the outcome of the U.S. election will impact them in some ways nearly as much as it will Americans themselves. European politicians, officials, and journalists visit Washington regularly, at all times of year, to get updates on the latest developments in this latest American presidential election.
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KENYA: THE DECEMBER 2007 ELECTIONS AND THE CHALLENGES AHEAD.
Congressional Research Service, RS34378, Library of Congress. Ted Dagne. February 15, 2008.
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On December 27, 2007, millions of Kenyans went to the polls with the hope of strengthening the institutions of democracy and bringing productive change. Both international and domestic election observers, however, declared the elections to be rigged and deeply flawed. In the violence which followed, more than 1,000 people have been killed and an estimated 300,000 displaced.
RUSSIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: MANAGEMENT RESHUFFLE FOR "RUSSIA INC."?
Heritage Foundation WebMemo #1825. Ariel Cohen. February 25, 2008.
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The March 2 presidential elections will be anti-climactic, as Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin’s hand-picked successor, is the only candidate who stands any chance of winning. The elections have a democratic façade, but voters do not have a real choice: As in 2004, one voter--Putin himself--will cast the crucial ballot. The West must keep a close eye on the Putin-Medvedev tandem. Although Medvedev has voiced support for some liberal positions, Putin will continue to wield the real power as Prime Minister. The status quo in Russia, with authoritarianism at home and an assertively anti-Western foreign policy, is likely to continue.
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SOME HISTORICAL ANALOGIES TO THE 2008 ELECTION.
Council on Foreign Relations, interview. Bernard Gwertzman, interviewer. February 6, 2008.
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Walter Russell Mead, an award-winning historian and CFR senior fellow, says the U.S. electorate today can be compared to the public during the Cold War era, when security concerns were ever present but in the background to domestic issues.
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GEORGIA'S JANUARY 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: OUTCOME AND IMPLICATIONS.
Congressional Research Service, RS22794, Library of Congress. January 25, 2008.
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This report discusses the campaign and results of Georgia’s January 5, 2008, presidential election and implications for Russia and U.S. interests. Many observers viewed Mikhail Saakashvili’s re-election as indicating some democratization progress, but others raised concerns that political instability might endure and that Georgia’s ties with NATO might suffer. This report may be updated.
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Victor, Kirk SEPARATION ANXIETY (National Journal, Vol. 40, No. 6, February 9, 2008 pp. 26-33)
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As Election Day nears, political experts are paying close attention to Congressional elections as well. This article looks at the challenges Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire and Gordon Smith of Oregon face in their 2008 re-election bids. The Republicans all share the same problem -– in 2002, at the height of President Bush’s popularity, they ran as strong Bush allies. Since then, the president’s approval rating has dropped and their states have favored Democrats in recent elections. The author examines the current state of their races and identifies strategies the Senators are using to highlight their independent nature while their Democratic opponents try to tie them to the president.
BREAKING THE STALEMATE IN KENYA.
Joel D. Barkan. Africa Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). January 8, 2008.
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Public opinion polls conducted before the Kenyan election indicated that the race was too close to call; and unless the Election Commission of Kenya (ECK) conducted the elections in a “free and “fair” manner, violence could ensue. The election was the “freest and fairest” since independence; but within 48 hours after the election, the vote tally was perceived to be “highly flawed.”
The author believes that the only way out of this crisis depends on Kenya’s political class. Kenya has the option of continuing on the road to chaos and loss or consolidating its democracy and renewing economic development.
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RUSSIA’S DECEMBER 2007 LEGISLATIVE ELECTION: OUTCOME AND IMPLICATIONS.
Jim Nichol. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. December 10, 2007.
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“This report discusses the campaign and results of Russia’s December 2, 2007, election to the State Duma (the lower legislative chamber), and implications for Russia and U.S. interests. Many observers viewed the election as a setback to democratization. Unprecedented for modern Russia, President Vladimir Putin placed himself at the head of the ticket of the United Russia Party. This party won a majority of Duma seats, and Putin was widely viewed as gaining popular endorsement for a possible role in politics even after his constitutionally-limited second term in office ends in early 2008. This report may be updated.”
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Strupp, Joe WEB BEATS PRINT: NO LONGER ON THE FRINGE, POLITICAL BLOGGERS NOW DRIVE COVERAGE (Editor & Publisher, vol. 140, no. 12, December 2007, pp. 22-27)
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Mainstream news outlets have embraced the Web log, making political blogs key features of campaign coverage. The author interviews political bloggers from the Los Angeles Times, Reno Gazette-Journal, The Boston Globe, Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post. They say blogs provide more information sooner, but it’s demanding work and the results are unpredictable. “It is an online newsreel,” says Michael Tackett of the Chicago Tribune’s “The Swamp,” adding that anything goes: serious reporting comes alongside gossip, trivia and campaign ad videos. Blogs allow greater freedom and can give a local flavor. “It is like a conversation, and it does not take as much context as a story because it is for people who know the context,” says the Reno Gazette Journal’s Anjeanette Damon. But writing at a fever pitch opens the doors to more editorial slips and errors. Cross-referencing competitors is new. It is part of Internet culture to feature a “blogroll,” links to other similar blogs. Blogs also invite readers to post comments. The author maintains that, thanks to blogs, candidates now receive unprecedented exposure.
Meacham, Jon LETTING HILLARY BE HILLARY (Newsweek Jan 21 2008 pgs 30-35)
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The Clinton-Obama contest and questions of race, gender and power.
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Alarkon, Walter IN DEFENSE OF FRONTLOADING (Campaigns & Elections, vol. 28, no. 12, December 2007, pp. 14-15)
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The author notes that there has been plenty of coverage regarding Americans’ concerns with the early primaries schedule. Among the criticisms are that the schedule does not provide enough time for a candidate to recover from an early loss and results in an excruciatingly long general election. But, as Alarkon argues, there are some benefits to moving the primaries earlier. For instance, the new schedule allows more states and more voters to weigh in on the process before the nomination is locked up. It also allows for a diverse set of voters to have their opinion heard. For example, in the past, most attention was given to Iowa and New Hampshire, but Nevada’s early primary allows for a greater number of Hispanic voters to influence the process. Alarkon also outlines some of the proposals suggested for setting future primary calendars. They include letting the smallest states vote first, rotating the order of primaries or picking the first primaries by lottery.
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING PROCESS: CURRENT ISSUES.
Kevin J. Coleman. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. October 24, 2007.
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After every election, the presidential "nominating process generates complaints and proposed modifications." On a national level, both parties created task forces to evaluate the process. On a state level, the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS
) recommends regional primaries. The 110th Congress has introduced four bills to reform the nominating process. This report provides background information on these bills.
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Kriner, Douglas; Shen, Francis IRAQ CASUALTIES AND THE 2006 SENATE ELECTIONS (Legislative Studies Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 4, November 2007, pp. 507-530)
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Kriner and Shen, from Boston and Harvard universities, respectively, find that increased casualty numbers in the Iraq war had a marked effect on the 2006 U.S. Senate elections. Proceeding on the assumption that “even the most national of issues ... may have a strong local component,” they studied 2006 midterm election data from state and county levels. Despite the many facts that may inform the public in their evaluation of Iraq war policy, the authors maintain the number of American casualties is the “most concrete and publicly visible measure of the war’s costs.” Direct personal contact with war participants significantly influenced perceptions. They studied how the Iraq war was used by a number of candidates in their campaigns. While voting behavior differed from locality to locality, the authors concluded that Iraq war casualties had a significant and negative effect on Republican U.S. Senate candidates. They write that their results offer “compelling evidence for the existence of a democratic brake on military adventurism,” which is strongest in communities sustaining the most losses.
SUDAN’S 2009 ELECTIONS: CRITICAL ISSUES AND TIMELINES. Kelly Campbell and Dorina Bekoe. USIPeace Briefing, Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, U.S. Institute of Peace. Web posted August 31, 2007.
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Per the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Sudan is scheduled to hold elections by July 2009. The U.S. Institute of Peace held a meeting of the Sudan Peace Forum to discuss the tasks remaining in the organization of the elections. This Briefing summarizes the status of the preparations and identifies critical conditions to ensure the timely organization of these elections.
HOW NONPROFITS HELPED AMERICA VOTE: 2006. Kathryn Clabby. OMB Watch. Web posted August 3, 2007.
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Charitable organizations are not permitted to participate in partisan political activities, but they are allowed to conduct nonpartisan voter education and mobilization. Consequently, the author asserts, nonprofits are able to improve voter turnout in disadvantaged and low-income communities because of their personal relationship with community members. This report describes nonprofits’ 2006 activities and their preparations for the next election; highlights their defense for voters’ rights; describes how they protect the integrity of elections; surveys voter engagement and mobilization efforts; and lists available resources.
WHAT WOMEN SEE WHEN THEY SEE HILLARY. The Feminist debate over candidate Clinton. Lakshmi Chaudhry. Nation, July 2, 2007.p11-14
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Hilary Clinton doesn’t have a ‘women problem’; she has a feminist problem – and more so with those who lean left.
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FROM AMERICA’S MAYOR TO AMERICA’S PRESIDENT? RUDY GIULIANI (The Economist, vol. 383, no. 8527, May 5, 2007, pp. 33-34)
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The Economist profiles former New York City mayor and Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani, as part of a series on the presidential contenders for 2008. Giuliani, who led New York through the trauma of September 11, is in his element in front of a crowd -– nevertheless, he must persuade Republican primary voters that he is conservative enough, given his pro-choice and pro-gay stance. Polls show that, should he gain the Republican nomination, Giuliani would handily beat Hillary Clinton, although Barack Obama would be more of a challenge. Although the mood of the electorate is moving against Republicans, voters said they would prefer the candidate who, after 9/11, became known as “America’s mayor”.
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Berggren, D. Jason TWO PARTIES, TWO TYPES OF NOMINEES, TWO PATHS TO WINNING A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION, 1972-2004 (Presidential Studies Quarterly, Volume 37, No. 2, June 2007, pp. 203-227)
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The author, instructor at Florida International University, examines U.S. presidential primary poll data over the last three decades to determine patterns in how candidates are selected by the Republicans and Democrats. Previous scholars did not include party affiliation in their analysis, probably concluding that frontrunners usually win their party’s nomination. Berggren demonstrates this is not true. After reforms to the nomination process were completed in the early 1970s, almost all presidential nominees for the Democratic party from 1972-2004 have been unknown candidates who have entered the race late and only had single-digit support in the polls at the start (former Vice President Al Gore was the exception.) Early front-runners for the Democratic nomination have faltered, and the eventual party candidate can be predicted by looking at the results of the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary and the first southern primary. In contrast, the first poll taken a year before the Iowa Caucus has been 100 percent accurate in selecting the Republican party presidential nominee, usually a well-known party elder. Berggren argues that differing cultures of the two parties consistently lead to these outcomes, and these styles are reflected in each party’s nomination rules. Most state Republican parties use a winner-take-all method for allocating convention delegates, while the Democrats allocate delegates proportionately among those running. Under this scenario, Democrats are more likely to have a choice to make during the primary process with Republicans ratifying an established choice. Berggren concludes that future studies of the nomination process must take into consideration the differences between Democrat and Republican styles.
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Brady, David W.; Han, Hahrie; Pope, Jeremy C. PRIMARY ELECTIONS AND CANDIDATE IDEOLOGY: OUT OF STEP WITH THE PRIMARY ELECTORATE? (Legislative Studies Quarterly, Vol. 32, no. 1, February 2007, pp. 79-105)
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Brady, Han and Pope, academics from Stanford University, Wellesley College and Brigham Young University respectively, examine the dilemma of U.S. presidential candidates when faced with the more ideologically extreme primary voters, to whom they must appeal to succeed, without alienating the broader constituency that elects the president. Using a new dataset of House primary and general election outcomes, the authors argue that because low turnout in primary elections empowers “a small group of ideologically extreme voters to have greater impact,” candidates tend to position themselves closer to the primary electorate. Challengers who defeat incumbents in the primaries are often more ideologically extreme than the incumbents. There is evidence that this “primary-election effect” may account for greater polarization in Congress over the past few decades.
NIGERIA: CURRENT ISSUES.
Lauren Ploch. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. April 12, 2007.
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Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa, has faced intermittent political turmoil and economic crises since its independence in 1960. In spite of this, Nigeria has made progress in strengthening its democracy, and it has become a major player in Africa helping to resolve political disputes in Togo, Mauritania, Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire. It has become one of the U.S.’s key partners in Africa. Some analysts suggest there may be heightened civil unrest after the April elections; therefore, peaceful elections are critical for both the country and the region.
NIGERIA: ELECTIONS AND CONTINUING CHALLENGES.
Robert I. Rotberg. Council Special Report, Council on Foreign Relations. Web posted April 19, 2007.
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Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, has the largest Muslim population, and is one of the world’s leading producers of oil. Nigeria also faces serious problems such as corruption, internal unrest, an HIV/AIDS epidemic, and a struggling economy. The author maintains that the U.S. and the international community have a vested interest in ensuring that Nigeria becomes a peaceful and stable democracy.
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MacFarquhar, Larissa. THE CONCILIATOR
(New Yorker, May 7, 2007, pp. 46-57)
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Peppered throughout this profile on Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama are words such as “leisurely,” “soothing,” “tranquil,” “relaxed.” He is calm by temperament -- “the first thing almost everybody almost everybody who knows Obama says about him is how extremely comfortable he is with himself,” writes MacFarquhar; “he can seem like an actor playing a politician, too implausibly effortless to be doing it for real.” MacFarquhar draws on Obama’s own books to tell the story of his parents and grandparents. Their history of restless wandering and disappointment seem to have led Obama to find his own center within himself, and to choose to plant his own roots, in Chicago, Illinois. As a politician, Obama is known as a conciliator, whose “drive to compromise goes beyond the call of political expediency -– it’s instinctive, almost a tic.” His views of history and traditions make him “deeply conservative.” His sense of quiet is part of his campaign style: “Obama at town-hall meetings appears engaged but not fervently so, as if there were several other things that he would be equally happy doing that day.”
NIGERIA 2007: BUILDING BLOCKS FOR A PEACEFUL TRANSITION WORKSHOP REPORT.
Dorina Bekoe. USIPeace Briefing, U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP). Web posted March 8, 2007.
Full Text: [html format, var. pagination]
The U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding – Nigeria (WANEP-Nigeria) held a workshop in February 2007 on electoral violence. “This report describes the structure of the workshop, highlights concerns about the upcoming elections cited by the participants, and outlines participant’s recommendations to civil society for the way forward.” The goals of the workshop were: (1) broaden participants’ knowledge of factors that trigger electoral violence; (2) strengthen the civil society to prevent election conflict; and (3) “strengthen a network of civil representatives from across Nigeria that shares information on early warning of electoral violence and expertise on reducing tension.”
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Greenfield, Heather. INFORMATION WARS
(National Journal, vol. 39, no. 8, Feb. 24, 2007, pp. 48-49)
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The author examines the effectiveness of a new campaign tool –- search-engine ads tied to key words or phrases. Advertisers choose key words and create ads around them, so that when readers search online for information on that topic, the ad appears to the right of the search results. Both liberal and conservative consultants said this was one of the most effective campaign tools in the final weeks of the 2006 campaigns. It is also cheap; for example, for only $326, a liberal blogger set up an ad campaign that led 1,000 people searching for information on then-Virginia Senator George Allen to a article critical of him. Tactics such as "Googlebombing" -- a way to push news articles up to the top of Google search results -- will be used again in 2008, the author writes.
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Ansolabehere, Stephen et al. TELEVISION AND THE INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE IN U.S. ELECTIONS
(Legislative Studies Quarterly, vol. 31, no. 4, November 2006, pp.469-90)
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The incumbency advantage is a well-known phenomenon in the United States in all levels of politics. The advantage grew from one to two percentage points in the 1940s to the eight to ten percentage points today. There are many theories as to the reasons for this. The authors studied the relationship between television and electoral competition; after reviewing the data from gubernatorial and Senate elections from the 1940s to the 1990s, the authors conclude that "television has a small, directionally indeterminate, and statistically insignificant effect on the incumbency advantage."
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YOUTH AND ELECTORAL REVOLUTIONS IN SLOVAKIA, SERBIA, AND GEORGIA
Bunce, Valerie J.; Wolchik, Sharon L. (SAIS Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer-Fall 2006, pp. 55-65)
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[Note: This entire issue examines the role and influence of youth in political and social change. See table of contents
]
Bunce, Professor of Government and Chair of the Government Department at Cornell University, and Wolchik, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at George Washington University, examine the roles played by young people in deposing the semi-authoritarian leaders in Slovakia, Serbia, and Georgia. They assert that these electoral revolutions drew on a model of political change first developed in the Philippines in 1986 and in Chile in 1988 in which the opposition used popular protests, large-scale voter registration and get-out-the-vote campaigns, and election monitoring that turned elections into "regime-changing events".
They describe how young people in Slovakia used a "Rock the Vote" Campaign modeled on a similar movement in California to achieve an 80 percent turnout of first-time voters; how Otpor (Resistance), with substantial American support, used mass protests to question the legitimacy of the Milosevic regime in Serbia; and how Kmara (Enough) worked with opposition parties and other organizations to mobilize the drive to oust Shevardnadze. Some of the organizers of these victories have continued on in politics, others have returned to their studies and professions, and others have "joined international democracy-promotion groups and are working to help others benefit from their experience.
ELECTIONS: THE NATION'S EVOLVING ELECTION SYSTEM AS REFLECTED IN THE 2004 GENERAL ELECTION. [GAO-06-450]. United States Government Accountability Office (GAO). June 2006.
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The November 2004 presidential election was not as close as the 2000 presidential election, but it still raised concerns about election processes. Following the 2004 general election, a number of members of Congress asked GAO to review aspects of that election. In response to these requests, GAO initiated a review under the authority of the Comptroller General to examine an array of election issues of broad interest to Congress. This report focuses on the changing election processes in the United States and the November 2004 general election. Specifically, for each major stage of the election process-voter registration, absentee and early voting, preparing for and conducting elections, provisional voting, and counting the votes-plus voting methods, this report discusses (1) changes to election systems since the 2000 election, including steps taken to implement the Help America Vote Act, and (2) challenges encountered by election officials in the November 2004 election.
The U.S. election system is highly decentralized, with primary responsibility for managing, planning, and conducting elections residing at the local jurisdiction level-generally, the county level in most states, but some states have delegated election responsibility to subcounty governmental units.
Reports of problems encountered in the close 2000 presidential election with respect to voter registration lists, absentee ballots, ballot counting, and antiquated voting systems raised concerns about the fairness and accuracy of certain aspects of the U.S. election system. Subsequently, the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) was enacted, and major election reforms are now being implemented. The November 2004 general election highlighted some of the same challenges as in 2000 as well as some new challenges in areas such as electronic voting technology and implementation of some HAVA requirements. The issues that arose in both elections highlighted the importance of the interaction of people, processes, and technology in ensuring effective election operations and maintaining public confidence that the election system works.
GAO found that states have made changes-either as a result of HAVA or on their own-that addressed some of the challenges identified in the 2000 general election. GAO also found that some challenges continue and new challenges occurred in the 2004 general election. In passing HAVA, Congress provided a means for states and local jurisdictions to improve upon several aspects of the voting administration system. The report stresses that more time is needed to determine the full effect of those changes, especially the requirement for statewide voter registration lists for federal elections and new voting systems, both of which are at different stages of implementation across the states.
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Hamilton, Don THE OREGON VOTING REVOLUTION: HOW A VOTE-BY-MAIL EXPERIMENT TRANSFORMED THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS (American Prospect, vol. 17, no. 5, May 2006, pp. A3-A7)
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In June 1993, Oregon held its first statewide election entirely by mail, and since then, vote-by-mail in Oregon is the only method of voting for all elections, local or state. In 2000, Oregon became the first state to vote for a president solely on a mail ballot and today vote-by-mail in Oregon is widely supported old news. Vote-by-mail makes it more convenient for people to vote and can increase turnout by as much as 10 percent, political journalist Hamilton writes, although vote-by-mail tends to retain existing voters rather than recruit new voters. Voter turnout was 71 percent in 1996, the last polling-place election in Oregon, Hamilton writes, but 86 percent in 2004. According to Hamilton, studies show that no single political party benefits or suffers from mail balloting; vote-by-mail helps the well-organized, which can be said about a polling-place election as well. Mail voting saves money, according to an elections supervisor in Oregon, eliminating the expense of moving voting machines, hiring and training elections workers and opening and maintaining polling places. Concerns about mail balloting center on ballots going astray and improper balloting. Oregon employs a signature match program that is intended to catch improper signatures, according to Hamilton.
GETTING TO THE CORE: A GLOBAL SURVEY ON THE COST OF REGISTRATION AND ELECTIONS. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Development Policy; IFES, Center for Transitional and Post-Conflict Governance. May 18, 2006.
Report [pdf format, 212 pages]
The Cost of Registration and Elections (CORE) Project was initiated to assist governments and independent organizations in their efforts to identify and examine all forms of election-related costs and funding sources. The Project's primary objectives are to evaluate the methods by which election budgets are established, tracked and funded; to identify the cost-management practices that can be adopted by election management bodies in countries; and to establish a methodology for the comparative assessment of electoral costs.
This document is a step-by-step guide to election processes around the world. It explains what measures need to be in place, from voter registration to ballot-box security, and at what price, before the first ballot is cast. The report compares elections in different democratic environments: stable political conditions as in India and Sweden, transitional democracies such as Mexico, and conflict and post-conflict countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and Haiti. Ten detailed case studies are described.
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Soudriette, Richard W.; Ellis, Andrew A GLOBAL SNAPSHOT (Journal of Democracy, Vol. 17, No. 2, April, 2006, pp. 78-88)
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Designing an electoral system is a fundamental step in building a sustainable democracy. The authors explain the differences between a plurality/majority system and a proportional representation system. Soudriette and Ellis analyze five key factors to consider when selecting an electoral system: electoral boundaries, voter education, the modernization of election equipment, ballot papers and counting, and long-term sustainability. The article also includes a table comparing more than 120 countries' electoral systems.
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Miller, John J. EVERY MAN'S BURDEN (National Review, vol. 58, no. 6, April 10, 2006, pp. 22-23)
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Miller describes the controversies surrounding the renewal of the Voting Rights Act. Both Democrats and Republicans will probably vote for the renewal of the act, but Miller questions its relevance. In Georgia and other Southern states, black and white Americans register to vote and vote in elections in equal percentages. Blacks and Republicans have benefited from the "majority-minority" redistricting lines. While the "majority-minority" district aids a minority candidate, it also has had the unintended consequence of creating districts with only a few minorities and containing predominately conservative voters. The new battle, according to Miller, is about foreign-language ballots in districts with large populations of non-English speakers.
BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN U.S. ELECTIONS: REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON FEDERAL ELECTION REFORM.
Jimmy Carter and James A. Baker, III. September 2005.
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Co-chaired by former President Jimmy Carter and former Secretary of State James A. Baker, III, the Commission on Federal Election Reform was formed to address the problems of the U.S. electoral system. The Commission's final report represents a comprehensive proposal for modernization based on five main pillars:
- A universal voter registration system in which states, not local jurisdictions, are responsible for the accuracy and quality of the voter lists.
- A uniform system of voter identification based on the "REAL ID card."
- State measures that increase voting participation by making voting more convenient and offering more information on registration lists and voting.
- Methods for making voters who use electronic machines confident that their votes will be counted accurately.
- Strengthened and restructured systems for administering U.S. elections
The report also contains 87 specific Commission recommendations including:
- Asking news organizations to voluntarily refrain from projecting presidential election results until polls close in the 48 contiguous states.
- Requesting that all states provide unrestricted access to all legitimate domestic and international election observers.
- Changing the presidential primary schedule by creating four regional primaries.
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Gerken, Heather RACE: OPTIONAL (New Republic, vol. 233, no. 13, September 26, 2005, pp. 11-14) available from your nearest American Library
The author explores the history of the Voting Rights Act and questions if the VRA is still applicable, in its current form, today. Gerken argues that the act is an outdated piece of legislation that should be should be reworked to ensure more efficient election reform. Currently, all state election law changes must be approved by the federal government, creating a large backlog that hinders election law reform. Gerken believes that local government and civil rights groups can work together to ensure there is no voter discrimination.
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Cohen, Richard; Barnes, James; Baumann, David; Victor, Kirk HIGH ANXIETY (National Journal, vol. 37, no. 41, October 8, 2005, pp. 3085-3089)
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The authors write that the current political climate in the United States is "curious and unpredictable" as both the Republican and Democratic parties prepare for the 2006 mid-term election campaigns. Citing mounting political problems for the Republicans including discontent over the war in Iraq and gas prices, and the Democrat's lack of coherent and unified counter-message, the authors contend that it is impossible to use past congressional election results as a guide to predicting the results of the 2006 election. Both parties are feeling "self-doubt," according to the authors, and "significant factions on both sides are discouraged about their own party's current actions." Either way, say the authors, the 2006 mid-term election will be an important and interesting one.
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Franke-Ruta, Garance MINORITY REPORT (The American Prospect, vol. 16, no. 7, July 2005, pp. 39-43)
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Journalist Franke-Ruta discusses the Republican Party's successful strategies for winning votes from traditionally Democratic groups, minorities and women. Ads focusing on the shared values of the Hispanic community and Republican Party were particularly successful during the last presidential election. Franke-Ruta includes hard-to-find polling data about minority groups and describes how shifts in demographics have affected traditional voting blocs. Various Democratic strategists discuss needed changes in tactics to deliver minority votes in upcoming elections.
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Reed, Adolph THE 2004 ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE: THE MYTH OF THE "CULTURAL DIVIDE" AND THE TRIUMPH OF NEOLIBERAL IDEOLOGY (American Quarterly, vol. 57, no. 1, March 2005, pp. 1-15)
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Reed, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, notes that the outcome of the 2004 presidential election is commonly ascribed to a "cultural divide" between the "red" and "blue" states, which obscures the more important class dynamics that contributed to the Republicans' win. He notes that the Republicans exploited the weaknesses in the fragile Democratic coalition, composed of the labor movement, progressives, minorities and corporate and legal interests. Many changes enacted by the Clinton administration, such as expansion of the federal death penalty, mandatory minimum sentencing, welfare reform and ending low-income assistance, were used by the Bush campaign to highlight its "compassionate conservatism" in 2000. He notes that the Gore and Kerry campaigns were ineffectual, not so much because the candidates were uninspiring, as they were a symptom of the Democrats' inability to craft a message that would appeal to broad swaths of the American public.
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Hadfield, Joe MORE THAN SURVIVE, PARTIES THRIVE UNDER NEW CAMPAIGN FINANCE RULES (Campaigns and Elections, April 2005, pp. 22-24)
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Hadfield, a staff writer for Campaigns & Elections, discusses the recent report by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Despite the predictions of less available money for campaign spending due to the 2002 changes in campaign financing law, both the democrats and the republicans raised and spent more money in the 2004 presidential election than ever before. The republicans contracted with InfoCision to solicit new donors and the calls yielded 500,000 new donors. Hadfield believes that the new Republican donors will help the party for years to come. The Democrats used the Internet very effectively for fund-raising and this will become a future model for both parties. The article includes graphs that summarize campaign advertising for both parties.