Embassy of the United States

Economics

Environmental Economics & Energy Archive

 

GROWING U.S. TRADE IN GREEN TECHNOLOGY.
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Steven F. Hayward. October 7, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 4 pages]

The two main issues that should be considered when assessing the prospects for increased export potential for American energy technology are the actual dynamics of the present market environment and the cross-cutting factors that will come to bear on how trade flows will unfold in the real world, according to the testimony.

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REPORT TO CONGRESS: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DIESEL EMISSIONS REDUCTION PROGRAM.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. October 14, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 60 pages]

The report to Congress details the health, environmental and economic benefits of the agency’s Diesel Emission Reduction Program. The program, funded at $50 million last year, allowed EPA to fund the purchase or retrofitting of 14,000 diesel-powered vehicles and pieces of equipment, preventing respiratory illnesses and saving money in communities nationwide.

 

OPEC REVENUES FACT SHEET.
Energy Information Administration. October 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]

The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $558 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $686 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $971 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $288 billion, representing 30 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $2,688 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

 

BIOFUELS: POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND CHALLENGES OF REQUIRED INCREASES IN PRODUCTION AND USE.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. Web posted October 2, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 184 pages]

In December 2007, the Congress expanded the renewable fuel standard (RFS), which requires rising use of ethanol and other biofuels, from 9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons in 2022. To meet the RFS, the Departments of Agriculture (USDA) and Energy (DOE) are developing advanced biofuels that use cellulosic feedstocks, such as corn stover and switchgrass. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administers the RFS. The report examines, among other things, (1) the effects of increased biofuels production on U.S. agriculture, environment, and greenhouse gas emissions; (2) federal support for domestic biofuels production; and (3) key challenges in meeting the RFS.

 

ESTIMATING U.S. GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES TO ENERGY SOURCES: 2002-2008.
Environmental Law Institute. September 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 37 pages]

The largest U.S subsidies to fossil fuels are attributed to tax breaks that aid foreign oil production, according to the research. The study, which reviewed fossil fuel and energy subsidies for Fiscal Years 2002-2008, reveals that the lion’s share of energy subsidies supported energy sources that emit high levels of greenhouse gases.

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IMPROVING THE ENERGY PERFORMANCE OF BUILDINGS: LEARNING FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION AND AUSTRALIA.
RAND Corporation. Charles P. Ries et al. September 20, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 61 pages]

The study shows the review of recent European and Australian experience in the design and implementation of policies to improve energy efficiency of buildings and insights to aid U.S. designers of analogous policies.

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ELECTRIC POWER STORAGE.
Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Stan Mark Kaplan. September 8, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 35 pages]

Unlike natural gas or fuel oil, electricity cannot be easily stored. However, interest in electric power storage (EPS) has been growing with technological advancements that can make storage a more practical means of integrating renewable power into the electricity grid and achieving other operating benefits. The report summarizes the technical, regulatory, and policy issues that surround implementation of EPS.

 

OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. September 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]

Based on projections from the EIA September 2009, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $559 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $675 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $971 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $288 billion, representing 30 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings reached $2,688 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

 

AA09304
Grant, Greg THE NEW THREAT TO OIL SUPPLIES: HACKERS (Foreign Policy, August 25, 2009)
Full Text [HTML format]

Offshore drilling rigs are becoming increasingly computerized and remote-controlled, a trend that renders them vulnerable to sabotage, as proved by a recent case in California, involving a disgruntled contractor who hacked into the shore-to-rig communications system. Most new oil discoveries are in deep ocean waters, a very dangerous environment for “roughnecks”, and the expense of living quarters, feeding and evacuation has become prohibitively high, hence the move to remote-controlled rigs. While the rigs employ state-of-the-art robotics, the computer software controlling the rig is often decades old, notes the author. He notes that the possibility of cyberattack will only grow, as governments and companies around the world vie for ever-more scarce global oil reserves.

 

AA09305
Kornell, Sam BIG STEP FORWARD LOST IN SHUFFLE (Miller-McCune, September 16, 2009)
Full Text [HTML format]

The author notes that a “momentous bit of news slipped by more or less unnoticed, lost in the general hullabaloo over health care and the apparent deterioration of civil discourse sweeping the country” -– the unveiling of the Obama administration’s plan to compel the U.S. automakers to increase the fuel-efficiency of new vehicles to over 35 miles per gallon by the year 2016. The plan, which would be enforced by the Environmental Protection Agency, would raise the efficiency standards by 5 percent a year. In view of the new evidence coming to light about climate change and looming future declines in global oil production, the author notes that “any serious national effort to increase fuel efficiency is a welcome development”, and that the new emissions standards, which will probably go into effect next year, “represent the most impressive step to reduce fossil fuel emissions in the history of American politics.”

OPEC REVENUES FACT SHEET.
Energy Information Administration. August 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]

The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $555 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $667 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $968 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $285 billion, representing 29 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $2,680 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

 

FIGHTING OIL ADDICTION: RANKING STATES’ OIL VULNERABILITY AND SOLUTIONS FOR CHANGE.
Natural Resources Defense Council. Deron Lovaas. August 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 21 pages]

America's addiction to oil continues to threaten not only our national security and global environmental health, but also our economic viability. The report analyzes how heavily drivers in each state are affected by increases in oil prices and ranked states on their adoption of solutions to reduce their oil dependence, measures they are taking to lessen their vulnerability and to bolster America's security.

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THIRST FOR AFRICAN OIL: ASIAN NATIONAL OIL COMPANIES IN NIGERIA AND ANGOLA.
Chatham House Report. Alex Vines et al. August 10, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 75 pages]

The report on the activities of Asian oil companies in Africa exposes the flaws in many general assumptions about Asian engagement with Africa. The report analyzes the impact of these companies in the two leading oil producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and contrasts the stability and policy consistency that are features of the Angolan system with a more insecure and unstable system in Nigeria.

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THE PEAK OIL DEBATE.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Laurel Graefe. August 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 16 pages]

For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when “peak oil” will occur, the point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world’s energy supply still relies heavily on oil, and global energy demand is expected to rise steeply over the next twenty years. The report focuses on the debate.

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AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE: TECHNOLOGY AND TRANSFORMATION: SUMMARY EDITION.
National Academy of Sciences and National Research Council. July 28, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format with links]

With a sustained national commitment, the United States could obtain substantial energy-efficiency improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated deployment of existing and emerging energy technologies, according to the report.

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U.S. ENERGY USE DROPS IN 2008.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Anne M. Stark. July 20, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]

Americans used more solar, nuclear, biomass and wind energy in 2008 than they did in 2007, according to the study. The nation used less coal and petroleum during the same time frame and only slightly increased its natural gas consumption. Geothermal energy use remained the same.

 

OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]

Based on projections from the EIA June 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $530 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $620 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $968 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $285 billion, representing 29 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $2,680 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

 

THE CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY: REPOWERING JOBS, BUSINESSES AND INVESTMENTS ACROSS AMERICA.
Pew Charitable Trusts. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 61 pages]

The number of jobs in America’s emerging clean energy economy grew nearly two and a half times faster than overall jobs between 1998 and 2007, according to the report. Pew found that jobs in the clean energy economy grew at a national rate of 9.1 percent, while traditional jobs grew by only 3.7 percent between 1998 and 2007. Pew developed a data-driven definition of the clean energy economy and conducted hard count across all 50 states of the actual jobs, companies and venture capital investments that supply the growing market demand for environmentally friendly products and services.

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FEDERAL ENERGY AND FLEET MANAGEMENT.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 53 pages]

The U.S. transportation sector relies almost exclusively on oil; as a result, it causes about a third of the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced technology vehicles powered by alternative fuels, such as electricity and ethanol, are one way to reduce oil consumption. The federal government set a goal for federal agencies to use plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, vehicles that run on both gasoline and batteries charged by connecting a plug into an electric power source, as they become available at a reasonable cost.

 

COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEFS: IRAQ.
Energy Information Administration. June 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 12 pages]

Iraq was the world’s 13th largest oil producer in 2008, and has the world’s third largest proven petroleum reserves after Saudi Arabia and Canada. Just a fraction of Iraq’s known fields are in development, and Iraq may be one of the few places left where vast reserves, proven and unknown, have barely been exploited. Iraq’s energy sector is heavily based upon oil, with approximately 94 percent of its energy needs met with petroleum. According to the International Monetary Fund, crude oil export revenues represented over 75 percent of GDP and 86 percent of government revenues in 2008.

 

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009.
Energy Information Administration. May 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 284 pages]

World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection. The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession.

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCES OVER $467 MILLION IN RECOVERY ACT FUNDING FOR GEOTHERMAL AND SOLAR ENERGY PROJECTS.
U.S. Department of Energy. May 27, 2009.
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“We have a choice. We can remain the world’s leading importer of oil, or we can become the world’s leading exporter of clean energy,” said President Obama. “We can hand over the jobs of the future to our competitors, or we can confront what they have already recognized as the great opportunity of our time: the nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy. That’s the nation I want America to be.”

 

AA09199
Klare, Michael IT’S OFFICIAL – THE ERA OF CHEAP OIL IS OVER (The Nation, posted June 11, 2009)
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Every summer, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy issues its International Energy Outlook, a data-packed assessment of the global energy situation. This year’s report contained a statement of great significance: the EIA predicts a sharp drop in future global oil production. Klare notes that the EIA, which in past years has scoffed at the notion of impending global petroleum shortages, is now finally coming around to the conclusion that many experts have been warning about for years – that the era of cheap and plentiful oil is drawing to a close. While the EIA predicts that production of unconventional fuels will increase to fill the shortfall, Klare and others are doubtful that they will bridge the gap, given the large investments required and the tremendous adverse environmental impact. The EIA’s report also highlights the insatiable demand for energy in Asia, and the fact that China will before long overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest energy consumer, at which point it will be in a position to influence global energy policy and markets.

 

 

ENSURING GREEN GROWTH IN A TIME OF ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE ROLE OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGY.
International Energy Policy. Web posted May 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 23 pages]

Despite the severity of the current financial and economic crisis, it cannot be allowed to distract us from addressing critical and strategic climate change and energy challenges, says the report. The energy sector produces 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions and so it must also be a key part of any strategy to reduce them. The paper describes the most promising low-carbon technologies, their current status and the policy framework that will be necessary to achieve their widespread deployment.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEFS: NIGERIA.
Energy Information Administration. May 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 9 pages]

The Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector which accounts for over 95 percent of export earnings and about 85 percent of government revenues. The oil industry is primarily located in the Niger Delta where it has been a source of conflict. The industry has been blamed for pollution that has damaged air, soil and water leading to losses in arable land and decreasing fish stocks. Local groups seeking a share of the oil wealth often attack the oil infrastructure and staff, forcing companies to declare force majeure on oil shipments.

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MEETING PROJECTED COAL PRODUCTION DEMANDS IN THE USA: UPSTREAM ISSUES, CHALLENGES, AND STRATEGIES.
Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. May 12, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 20 pages]

The study seeks to investigate different aspects of the coal supply chain and to highlight critical “upstream” fuel cycle issues that need to be addressed to ensure that the domestic coal industry can continue meeting the nation’s energy demands while delivering the social benefits and environmental performance demanded by the public. It reviews all coal-related upstream issues, identifying problems and strengths, and recommending areas of improvement.

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IS IT TIME TO INVEST IN UNITED STATES SOLAR MANUFACTURING?
Deloitte LLP. Web posted April 20, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 4 pages]

The U.S. has the potential to be the next big emerging market for solar. As policymakers work to balance the challenges of issues such as energy independence, climate change and economic growth, many see the solar industry sitting squarely in the sweet spot, according to the report. Not only does the U.S. represent a big potential market for solar power, it also has the potential to become a world leader in solar manufacturing.

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THE IMPACT OF ETHANOL USE ON FOOD PRICES AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS.
Congressional Budget Office. April 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 26 pages]

Over the past several years, spurred by both rising gasoline prices and long-standing subsidies for producing ethanol, the use of ethanol as a motor fuel in the United States has grown at an annual average rate of nearly 25 percent. U.S. consumption of ethanol last year exceeded 9 billion gallons–a record high. The paper discusses the relationship between ethanol, greenhouse-gas emissions, food prices, and federal spending on nutrition programs.

 

ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009.
Energy Information Administration. March 2009.
Full Text [HTML format with links to PDF files]

The Outlook presents projections and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The Outlook includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation.

 

THE ENERGY LEARNING CURVE: COMING FROM DIFFERENT STARTING POINTS, THE PUBLIC SEES SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
Public Agenda. April 3, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 44 pages]

The study finds the American people reaching common ground on at least 10 major energy proposals, particularly on alternative energy. But the public may not yet be prepared for the tradeoffs and challenges needed to make these proposals a reality. Despite consensus on certain solutions, misconceptions and lack of knowledge hinder informed judgment.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEFS: INDIA.
Energy Information Administration. March 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 12 pages]

With high rates of economic growth and over 15 percent of the world’s population, India has become a significant consumer of energy resources. In 2006, India was the sixth largest oil consumer in the world. The global financial crisis and credit crunch have slowed India’s significant economic growth particularly in the manufacturing sector, and GDP growth rates have declined from 9.3 percent in 2007 to 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Despite a recent slowing economy, India’s energy demand continues to increase.

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AA09120
Stuller, Jay THE POWER OF POWER (American Legion, vol. 166, no. 3, March 2009, pp. 38-43, 46-47, 51)
Full Text [HTML format]

Stuller, co-author of PERFECT POWER: HOW THE MICROGRID REVOLUTION WILL UNLEASH CLEANER, GREENER AND MORE ABUNDANT ENERGY, notes that U.S. presidents since Richard Nixon have called for the U.S. to reduce its dependence on foreign sources of petroleum, yet that goal has remained as elusive as ever, the U.S. importing some two-thirds of its oil. A growing portion of the global oil supply is now controlled by foreign governments that are not above using energy as a geopolitical weapon. He writes that there are “no convenient truths” in energy security -– he notes the environmental drawbacks of coal and nuclear power, and that the centralized North American electric power grid is aging and inefficient. He writes that “America must make complicated and costly decisions” on energy. In order to have energy alternatives compete in the long term, the federal government could directly subsidize wind and solar projects, or find indirect methods to make them competitive, by creating a tax on carbon emissions to reduce consumption of oil, natural gas and coal, as former Vice President Al Gore proposed.

 

INTERNATIONAL STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER.
International Atomic Energy Agency. February 27, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 54 pages]

The report describes the growing interest in nuclear power around the world, current projections about its future, new technological developments and the challenges faced in different countries. In 2008, nuclear power supplied about 14% of the world’s electricity. At the end of the year, 438 reactors in 30 countries were in operation and another 44 reactors were under construction. Projections ranged from a 27% increase in nuclear power by 2030 to a 100% increase.

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OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. March 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]

Based on projections from the report, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $383 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $503 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $970 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $287 billion, representing 30 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings reached $2,686 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

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THE 2008 OIL PRICE SHOCK: COMPETING EXPLANATIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS.
Global Public Policy Institute. Timo Behr. 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 30 pages]

Throughout 2008, world oil markets experienced volatility on an unprecedented scale. While crude oil prices shot up to the dizzying heights of almost $150 per barrel by the middle of the year, they came plunging down to close to $40 per barrel by December. The paper analyzes the debate on the causes behind oil price volatility by disentangling the competing arguments and reviewing the evidence that supports them.

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GREEN POWER SUPERHIGHWAYS: BUILDING A PATH TO AMERICA’S CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE.
American Wind Energy Association and Solar Energy Industries Association. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 28 pages]

The report details current inadequacies of the U.S. electric transmission infrastructure and offering policy solutions to address them. According to the report, inadequate transmission capacity is a significant barrier to renewable energy development in the U.S. The release of the paper comes at a critical time. President Obama and Congress have made strong commitments to renewable energy as a driver for jobs creation and economic growth, but the nation’s renewable energy resources can not reach their full potential without renewed investment in our transmission infrastructure.

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SEVENTH REPORT TO CONGRESS ON PROGRESS MADE IN LICENSING AND CONSTRUCTING THE ALASKA NATURAL GAS PIPELINE.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. February 20, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 7 pages]

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today submitted to Congress its “Seventh Report to Congress on the Progress Made in Licensing and Constructing the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline,” as required by the Energy Policy Act of 2005. It outlines the major developments that have occurred since the August 2008 report.

 

THIRSTY ENERGY: WATER AND ENERGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY.
Energy Vision Update 2009, World Economic Forum. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 56 pages]

The report explores the risks and opportunities inherent in the ancient relationship between energy and water, which has taken on a new urgency as competition for finite freshwater resources rises. According to the report, water is critical to energy production, yet the water/energy nexus is often overlooked. “The importance of bringing water into the energy equation now cannot be underestimated as we are heading for a more water-scarce future,” said Christoph Frei, Senior Director and Head of Energy Industry at the World Economic Forum.

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SMART CHOICE FOR BIOFUELS. vSierra Club and Worldwatch Institute. Jane Earley and Alice McKeown. February 18, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, with link to a PDF full text file]

The report highlights the need for policy reforms at this critical juncture in America’s effort to increase the use of biofuels. It outlines the economic and environmental impacts of first-generation biofuels such as corn ethanol, proposes strategies to make the biofuels industry more sustainable, and offers specific policy recommendations.

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EURASIAN ENERGY SECURITY.
Council on Foreign Relations. Jeffrey Mankoff. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 66 pages]

A cutoff of supplies connected in part to a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine, the crucial transit country for much of Russia’s gas, left millions of Europeans without heat and forced factories to close. The crisis not only underscored the challenges of managing U.S. and European relations with Russia, a country whose geopolitical reach rises and falls to some extent with the price of oil and gas. The report explores the challenges faced by consumer and supplier alike in Europe and Eurasia.

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OIL MARKET REPORT.
International Energy Agency. February 11, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 58 pages]

Coinciding with the official suspension on January 1, 2009 of Indonesia’s membership of OPEC, the International Energy Agency has made some changes to the way it categorizes and aggregates OPEC and non OPEC oil production data in the report. Henceforward, primary totals for OPEC oil production will comprise only the current 12 members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela. It will apply to all historical totals as well as to forecasts of gas liquids and non-conventional oil supplies. At the same time, non-OPEC totals and regional sub-totals will be adjusted to exclude all current OPEC members back through the historical time series as well as for the forecast.

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OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 3 pages]

The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $402 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $530 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $971 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $288 billion, representing 30 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $2,688 in 2008, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

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COLOMBIA: A NEW ETHANOL PRODUCER ON THE RISE?
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Web posted February 9, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 15 pages]

Colombia’s sugarcane-based ethanol industry, after operating for only 3 years, is the second most developed in the Western Hemisphere, according to the report. Most Colombian ethanol plants are energy self-sufficient and even generate surplus power that is sold to the national electric grid. Colombia’s sugarcane-based ethanol production is increasing: proposed expansion projects have the potential to more than triple daily production from 277,000 gallons in 2007 to almost 1 million gallons in 2010. Most of the expansion is intended for exports, principally to the United States.

 

COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEF: COLOMBIA.
Energy Information Administration. Web posted February 5, 2009.
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Colombia has seen an increase in oil production in recent years following a period of steady declines. The Colombian government has implemented a partial privatization of state oil company Ecopetrol in an attempt to revive its upstream oil industry. In addition, it has enacted a series of regulatory reforms to make the sector more attractive to foreign investors. While the security situation has improved, Colombia’s longstanding civil conflict has taken its toll on the country’s energy sector, with the country’s pipelines and power lines still experiencing occasional sabotage by insurgent groups.

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ANNUAL RANKING OF GREEN VEHICLES SHOWS PROGRESS DESPITE TOUGH TIMES.
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. Shruti Vaidyanathan and Therese Langer. February 3, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging with links]

Despite the beating taken by the auto industry in 2008 and more tough times ahead, manufacturers are fine-tuning their engines and transmissions, improving materials, and adding emissions control technologies get a head start on meeting tightened federal fuel economy standards. Worries over the economy and future gas prices are driving interest in high fuel economy vehicles as well, says the author. This year’s greenest title goes once again to Honda’s natural gas-powered Civic GX. The Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid claim spots two and three, while the Smart Fortwo Convertible, the Toyota Yaris, and the Nissan Altima Hybrid complete the top six.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEF: IRAN.
Energy Information Administration. February 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 14 pages]

Iran, one of OPEC’s founding members, holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves and the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves.

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STRENGTHENING OUR ECONOMY: THE UNTAPPED U.S. OIL AND GAS RESOURCES.
American Petroleum Institute. Harry Vidas and Bob Hugman. Web posted February 1, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 97 pages]

The development of America’s vast domestic oil and natural gas resources that had been kept off-limits by Congress for decades could generate more than $1.7 trillion in government revenue, create thousands of new jobs and enhance the nation’s energy security by significantly boosting domestic production, says the study. The study also estimates that the development of all U.S. oil and natural gas resources on federal lands could exceed $4 trillion over the life of the resources.

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AA09048
Grunwald, Michael WASTING OUR WATTS (Time, vol. 173, no. 1, January 12, 2009, pp. 32-36)
Full Text [HTML format; online title: “America's Untapped Energy Resource”]

The author notes that the U.S. “has a renewable-energy resource that is perfectly clean, remarkably cheap, surprisingly abundant and immediately available -- it has astounding potential to reduce the carbon emissions that threaten our planet, the dependence on foreign oil that threatens our security and the energy costs that threaten our wallets.” It is energy efficiency, and it's often ignored in the hubbub over alternative fuels, the nuclear renaissance, the T. Boone Pickens plan and the green-tech economy. Grunwald notes that major change is in the works when companies like IBM, GM, Wal-Mart and Chevron run ads touting their energy-saving commitments, and “when cities, universities, supermarkets and hospitals race to reduce their carbon footprints.” Experts have identified dozens of attractive targets for eliminating waste, from streetlights to servers. The Department of Energy predicts a 30-percent increase in power demand in America by 2030, and power companies “are keenly aware that the cheapest new plant is the one they don't have to build.” Duke Energy has proclaimed efficiency its "fifth fuel," unveiling ambitious plans to help its customers retrofit their homes and buildings and buy more efficient appliances and equipment.

 

WHO ARE THE MAJOR PLAYERS SUPPLYING THE WORLD OIL MARKET?
Energy Information Administration. January 28, 2009.
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Governments of oil-rich countries have a major influence on the world supply of oil through ownership of national oil companies and, for some governments, their membership in OPEC.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEF: VENEZUELA.
Energy Information Administration. January 26, 2009.
Full Text [HTML format, various paging]

Venezuela is one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil and the largest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2007, the country was the seventh-largest net oil exporter in the world. The oil sector is of central importance to the Venezuelan economy: it accounts for more than three-quarters of total Venezuelan export revenues, about half of total government revenues, and around one-third of total gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, as a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela is an important player in the global oil market.

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ASSESSMENT OF ACHIEVABLE POTENTIAL FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEMAND RESPONSE PROGRAMS IN THE U.S. (2010-2030).
Electric Power Institute. Web posted January 22, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 342 pages]

Energy efficiency programs in the United States could realistically reduce the rate of growth for electricity consumption by 22 percent over the next two decades if key barriers can be addressed, according to the analysis. The potential energy savings in 2030 would be 236 billion kilowatt hours, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 14 New York Cities. However, achieving the ideal would require costly investments as well as political and regulatory support.

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ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY 2007: YEAR IN REVIEW.
Energy Information Administration. January 21, 2009.
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In 2007, average retail electricity prices increased 2.6 percent from 8.9 to 9.1 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) This followed a 3-year period during which average fossil fuel prices for electricity generation increased a cumulative 30.2 percent. As fuel prices increased 30.2 percent, the National average retail price of electricity increased 17.0 percent from 7.6 cents per kWh in 2004 to 8.9 cents per kWh in 2006. Fossil fuel prices increased an additional 7.0 percent in 2007, contributing to the 2.6 percent average retail electricity rate increase.

 

PRODUCING LIQUID FUELS FROM COAL: PROSPECTS AND POLICY ISSUES.
RAND Corporation. James T. Bartis et al. January 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 199 pages]

The federal government can spark the creation of a commercially competitive coal-to-liquids industry by fostering early development of plants that would produce transportation fuels from coal, according to the study. It finds that a commercially competitive U.S. coal-to-liquids industry could produce as much as three million barrels of high-quality liquid fuels per day by 2030, an amount equivalent to 15 percent of current U.S. oil demand.

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TOWARD A JUST AND SUSTAINABLE SOLAR ENERGY INDUSTRY.
Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition. Dustin Mulvaney et al. January 14, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 48 pages]

The report documents and analyzes the environmental and health hazards of solar panel systems in a supposed “win-win” solution to global warming. It covers the health and safety concerns as well as recommendations for building a just and sustainable solar energy industry.

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OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. January 2009.
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Based on projections from the January 2009 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $387 billion of net oil export revenues in 2009 and $526 billion in 2010. Last year, OPEC earned $972 billion in net oil export revenues, a 42 percent increase from 2007. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $2,691, a 40 percent increase from 2007.

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LIGHTS OUT FOR THOMAS EDISON.
National Center for Policy Analysis. Sterling Burnett and Amanda Berg. Web posted January 11, 2009.
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Although touted by many as the smart energy choice, compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs are not suitable for many common uses and should not be required by the government, according to the report. The authors argue: “For many uses, compact fluorescent bulbs may be more costly and troublesome than they’re worth.” The report concludes that despite manufacturer claims, many CFLs don’t come close to lasting the 10,000 hours they are supposed to last. In addition, CFLs also contain potentially toxic mercury, therefore, CFL disposal and breakage presents numerous health and environmental concerns.

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LOW-CARBON ENERGY: A ROADMAP.
Worldwatch Institute. Christopher Flavin. January 6, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 52 pages]

New technologies will permit rapid de-carbonization of the world energy economy in the next two decades, according to the report. These new energy sources will make it possible to retire hundreds of coal-fired power plants that now provide 40 percent of the world’s power by 2030, eliminating up to one-third of global carbon dioxide emissions while creating millions of new jobs. Reducing dependence on fossil fuels will diminish the climate crisis and will also act as an agent of recovery for an ailing global economy. Rebuilding the global energy system has the potential to create thousands of new businesses and millions of new jobs.

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IMPORTING POLLUTION: COALS’S THREAT TO CLIMATE POLICY IN THE U.S. NORTHEAST.
Union of Concerned Scientists. December 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 44 pages]

The Northeast’s cap-and-trade system for global warming pollution will be compromised unless utilities are prevented from importing additional coal-fired electricity, according to the report. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which applies to power plants in 10 Northeastern states, does not preclude the utilities that supply electricity to Northeast homes and businesses from buying more electricity from coal-fired power plants outside the region. That could increase the carbon dioxide emissions from those plants outside the region, offsetting emissions reductions under RGGI.

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SOURCE BOOK: GREEN STIMULUS PROPOSALS.
U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources. December 20, 2008.
Full Text [HTML format, with links to PDF files]

‘Green’ Stimulus Proposals is a compilation of green jobs ideas for the next economic recovery bill. The proposals come from a range of sources, including statements by witnesses testifying at our Dec. 10 full committee hearing regarding investments in clean energy and natural resources projects/programs to create green jobs and to stimulate the economy.

 

ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009: EARLY RELEASE.
Energy Information Administration. December 17, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 21 pages]
Table [PDF format, 41 pages]

He early release report presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2030. For the first time in more than 20 years, the new reference case projects virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption, reflecting the combined effect of recently enacted CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.

 

THE TRUE COST OF COAL.
Greenpeace. Web posted December 1, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 92 pages]

According to the report, the global cost of coal was at least €360 billion last year alone. The figure arrives from CO2 damage costs, health costs and mining accidents. Coal burning has existed for centuries, and its use as a fuel has been recorded since the 1100s. It powered the Industrial Revolution, changing the course of first Britain, and then the world, in the process. In the U.S., the first coal-fired power plant opened on the shores of the lower East River in New York City in September 1882. Today, coal is used to produce nearly 40% of the world’s electricity. However, burning coal is one of the most harmful practices on the planet.

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OIL SHALE MANAGEMENT – GENERAL.
Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior. November 18, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 75 pages]

As part of its ongoing effort to increase and diversify America’s energy supply, the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management published final regulations to establish a commercial oil shale program that could result in the addition of up to 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from lands in the Western United States. In keeping with the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920, the BLM final regulations provide the critical “rules of the road” on which private investors will rely in determining whether to make future financial commitments to prospective oil shale projects.

 

COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEF: SOUTH AFRICA.
Energy Information Administration. Web posted October 9, 2008.
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South Africa has only small deposits of oil and natural gas and relies on coal production for most of its energy needs. The country has a highly developed synthetic fuels industry, mainly derived from coal. South Africa’s economy is structured around large-scale, energy-intensive mining and primary minerals industries, pushing its energy intensity to above average levels, with only 10 other countries having higher commercial primary energy intensities. Due to its large coal deposits, South Africa is one of the cheapest electricity suppliers in the world. Although the cost of electricity in South Africa is among the worlds lowest, strong economic growth, rapid industrialization and a mass electrification program led to demand for power outstripping supply in early 2008.

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OPEN OIL EXPORT REVENUES.
Energy Information Administration. Web posted November 13, 2008.
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Based on projections from the Energy Information Administration, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could earn $979 billion of net oil export revenues in 2008, and $595 billion in 2009. Through October, OPEC has earned an estimated $884 billion in net oil export earnings in 2008. Last year, OPEC earned $671 billion in net oil export revenues, a 10 percent increase from 2006. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $194 billion, representing 29 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $1,137, a 8 percent increase from 2006.

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SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK.
Energy Information Administration. Web posted November 14, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 41 pages]

The current U.S. and global economic downturn has led to a decrease in global energy demand and a rapid and substantial reduction in crude oil and other energy prices. As a result, projections for both energy demand and prices are considerably lower than last month’s Outlook. The impact of the economic downturn on demand is also lowering current and expected natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to average $9.27 per Mcf in 2008. The projected 2009 annual average Henry Hub price is $6.82 per Mcf compared with $8.17 in the previous Outlook.

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ADVANCE SUMMARY: U.S. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS RESERVES 2007 ANNUAL REPORT.
Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. October 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 22 pages]

Record-high additions to U.S. dry natural gas proved reserves in 2007 totaled 46.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), more than double the 19.5 Tcf of dry natural gas actually produced in the United States during the year, according to the report. As a result, total proved reserves of dry natural gas in the U.S. at the end of 2007 rose to 237.7 Tcf, 13 percent above the year-end 2006 level and the highest level in the 31 years EIA has published annual reserves data. For the first time in four years, U.S. proved oil reserves increased during 2007, as proved reserve additions of 2.0 billion barrels exceeded production of 1.7 billion barrels. Year-end proved reserves in 2007 stood at 21.3 billion barrels, nearly two percent higher than at the end of 2006.

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KEY WORLD ENERGY STATISTICS 2008.
International Energy Agency. October 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 82 pages]

The study encompasses oil, natural gas, coal, electricity and renewable energy sources. It includes Canadian production of coal, the electricity consumption in Thailand, the price of diesel oil in South Africa and thousands of other useful energy facts.

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OIL’S TROUBLE SPOTS.
Council on Foreign Relations. Toni Johnson. Web posted August 29, 2008.
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Rising dependence on oil and soaring gasoline costs have the potential for oil supply disruptions. Hence, the stability of energy-rich regions poses major concerns. Certain areas are particularly vulnerable, one of which is the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which tankers carry 20 percent of the world's oil. Analysts say the Niger Delta, Iraq, and Venezuela remain vulnerable as well. With global supplies of oil already tight, potential supply disruptions could lead to significant increases in already volatile oil prices.

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TRANSPORTATION FUEL USE, TECHNOLOGY AND STANDARDS: THE ROLE OF CREDIBILITY AND EXPECTATIONS.
World Bank. Gunnar S. Ekeland and Torben K. Mideksa. Web posted August 26, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 39 pages]

There is a debate among policy analysts about whether fuel taxes alone are the most effective policy to reduce fuel use by motorists, or whether to also use mandatory standards for fuel efficiency. A problem with a policy mandating fuel economy standards is the “rebound effect,” whereby owners with more efficient vehicles increase vehicle usage. Taxes and standards should be mutually supportive because fuel taxes often meet political resistance. Over time, fuel efficiency standards can reduce political resistance to fuel taxes. Thus, by raising fuel efficiency standards now, politicians may be able to pursue higher fuel tax paths in the future.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEFS: TAIWAN.
Energy Information Administration. August 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 10 pages]

Taiwan does not have substantial domestic energy resources and must import the vast majority of its needs. Taiwan has encouraged investment in domestic oil and natural gas projects in light of a need to obtain a secure supply, including partnerships with mainland Chinese companies and overseas ventures. Nearly half of total energy consumption in Taiwan is from oil (45 percent), followed by coal (36 percent), although Taiwan no longer has any domestic coal production.

 

COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEF: EGYPT.
Energy Information Administration. August 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 7 pages]

In 2007, Egypt produced 664,000 barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) continuing its fall from a high of 950,000 bbl/d in 1995. Yet having consumed 653,000 b/d in 2007, production was sufficient to prevent Egypt from becoming a net importer of oil as some had predicted. Production and consumption of natural gas continue to rise with a total of 1.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) produced and 1.3 Tcf consumed in 2006, making Egypt a net gas exporter.

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IS THE COST OF GAS LEADING AMERICANS TO USE ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION?
[AARP Public Policy Institute]. Laura Skufca. Web posted August 13, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 14 pages]

The survey examines older Americans’ perceptions of their communities, their support for complete street policies, and the likelihood of their using alternative transportation as gasoline prices rise. Results from this survey of Americans age 50 and older show, that while many are exploring other means of transportation, neighborhood infrastructure is less than optimal. Four in ten respondents (40%) said they have walked more frequently, rode a bicycle, or used public transportation since gas prices have risen. More than one-quarter of respondents (29%) indicated that they are walking more frequently to get where they need to go. Almost all respondents are concerned about gas prices. More than two-thirds of respondents (67%) have limited their daily driving and more than six in ten (61%) have cut back on other expenses in order to accommodate high gas prices.

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BIOFUELS AND THE FOOD PRICE CRISIS: A SURVEY OF THE ISSUES.
Center for Global Development. Kimberly Elliott. Web posted August 11, 2008.
Full Text: [Link to the PDF document]

While the precise contribution of bio-fuels to surging food prices is difficult to know, policies promoting production of the bio-fuels are not achieving objectives of increased energy independence or reduced greenhouse gas emissions. It has been known that the net energy and greenhouse gas emission benefits of corn-based ethanol are relatively small because its production is energy-intensive. Recent scientific studies suggest that the current generation of bio-fuels, including bio-diesel made from palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed, as well as corn-based ethanol, actually add to greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum-based fuels when land use changes are taken into account.

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OPEC REVENUES FACT SHEET.
Energy Information Administration. Web posted August 12, 2008.
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Energy Information Administration estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned $671 billion in net oil export revenues in 2007, a 10 percent increase from 2006. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $194 billion, representing 29 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $1,137, an 8 percent increase from 2006. Through July, OPEC had earned an estimated $642 billion in net oil export earnings in 2008.

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AA08280
Hunt, Suzanne BIOFUELS, NEITHER SAVIOUR NOR SCAM: THE CASE FOR A SELECTIVE STRATEGY (World Policy Journal, vol. 25, no. 1, Spring 2008, pp. 9-17)
Full Text (EbscoHost; password required)

Hunt, an independent consultant to the U.S. Energy Department, weighs carefully the advantages and disadvantages of biofuels, both oversimplified in a debate about their potential role in addressing energy needs and climate change. She tends to agree with the view that biofuels produced from food crops have little influence on grain prices. She treads more carefully on the issue of net energy benefits. According to several studies, the production and use of virtually all biofuels produced today will lead to a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Hunt cautions, however, that such assessments are very complex. The production and use of biofuels is associated with trade-offs and risks but also with opportunities. Dealing rationally with this energy source requires developing effective safeguards against the risks and capitalizing on the opportunities, she says. For example, she views international cooperation and international biofuel standards as very important. The primary concern is that, without them “a biofuels free-for-all could develop that would pay little regard to sustainability and environmental concerns,” she says. Also, it is important to consider biofuels in a broader context of agriculture-related climate-change mitigation efforts. She concludes that more sustainable farm practices can help ensure that both future biofuels and agriculture meet sustainability targets.

 

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF BIOFUEL SUPPORT POLICIES.
Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development]. Martin von Lampe. Web posted July 17, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 119 pages]

Government support of biofuel production in OECD countries has been costly, with a limited impact on reducing greenhouse gases and improving energy security, according to the study. The report finds that biofuels are currently highly dependent on public funding to be viable. In the United States, Canada, and the European Union government support for the supply and use of biofuels is expected to rise to around USD 25 billion per year by 2015 from about USD 11 billion in 2006. Support policies include budgetary measures, either as tax concessions or direct financial support for biofuel producers, retailers or users.

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COUNTRY ANALYSIS BRIEFS: COTE D’IVOIRE.
Energy Information Administration. July 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 5 pages]

Côte d’Ivoire’s oil industry started to take off in 2001 during a period of civil war. By 2007, oil exports represented 28 percent of the governments export revenues, surpassing cocoa and coffee, the country’s traditional export commodities. The majority of Côte d’Ivoire’s electricity is generated through natural gas-powered stations with hydroelectricity accounting for around 20 percent. While gradually becoming a net oil exporter, International Energy Agency (IEA) data indicates that more than half of domestic energy needs are met by combustible renewables and waste, mainly in the form of biomass.

 

IMPACTS ON U.S. ENERGY EXPENDITURES AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS OF INCREASING RENEWABLE-ENERGY USE.
RAND Corporation. Michael Toman et al. Web posted June 25, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 74 pages]

The penetration of renewable energy into the marketplace has been small, held back principally by their higher cost relative to fossil energy. The report assesses the potential impacts on U.S. consumer energy expenditures and national CO2 emissions of producing 25 percent of U.S. electric power and motor-vehicle transportation fuels from renewable resources by the year 2025. It shows that increasing renewable energy use can reduce CO2 emissions and enhance energy security by lowering the cost of imported petroleum. However, a large, inexpensive, easily converted biomass supply is necessary for significantly increased renewable-energy use to have a relatively low impact on consumer energy expenditures.

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RUNNING ON FUMES: RISING GAS PRICES ADD TO THE STRAIN ON FAMILIES’ ALREADY SQUEEZED BUDGETS.
Center for American Progress. Amanda Logan and Christian E. Weller. Web posted July 1, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

Families across America are struggling with higher prices for gas and food along with record unemployment rates, flat wages, and the deepening housing crisis. In April 2008, gasoline prices shattered an inflation-adjusted record that had stood since March 1981, and they have only continued to soar since then, hitting new record highs almost weekly. Increased gasoline expenditures disproportionately affect lower-income families. The second lowest income quintile devoted 5.4 percent of their average annual expenditures to gasoline and motor oil in 2006, while the highest income quintile devoted just 3.7 percent.

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2008: HIGHLIGHTS.
Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy. Web posted June 25, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 5 pages]

World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50 percent between 2005 and 2030, driven by robust economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries, according to the report. Average world oil prices in each year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices. Although liquid fuels are expected to remain the largest single source of energy through 2030, the liquids share of marketed world energy consumption declines from 37 percent in 2005 to 33 percent in 2030. The share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply is in decline with expanded use of unconventional oil, bio-fuels, and other unconventional liquids.

 

INCREASING COSTS IN ELECTRIC MARKETS.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. June 19, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

Higher fuel prices, increased capital costs and continued uncertainty about climate policy are helping fuel the rising costs of electricity faced by consumers across the country, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The rising cost trends are likely to continue for years. The report pegs current futures prices for natural gas at $2.50 to $5 above the average 2007 spot price for natural gas, and costs for everything from iron and steel to cement and copper wire rising significantly over the past several years. Those have contributed to increases in the cost of new generation for every type of power plant, from nuclear power to combustion turbine and wind generators.

 

AA08213
Victor, David; Eskreis-Winkler, Sarah IN THE TANK (Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 4, July/August 2008, pp. 70-83)
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The U.S. has been reluctant to use its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to buffer itself against shocks to the world oil markets, say David Victor, a law professor at Stanford University and a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and his Council colleague, Sarah Eskreis-Winkler. Also, its management of the crude oil stockpiles is based on an outdated vision of the market. These stockpiles can help in times of crisis, but only if Washington radically reforms its approach and encourage other countries to do the same. The authors propose creating a new, independent board to manage existing oil stockpiles, purchase additional oil and gather and publish information about private oil stocks. They also suggest enlisting China and India in the International Energy Agency and reforming the agency’s standards for oil reserves.

 

AA08192
Greer, John Michael THE COMING OF DEINDUSTRIAL SOCIETY: A PRACTICAL RESPONSE (Archdruid Report, posted October 5, 2004)
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The inhabitants of the industrialized world will have to make a transition to a Third World lifestyle as fossil fuels are depleted, writes the author. Western society demands energy inputs that cannot possibly be sustained much longer, and “everybody will have to get used to living on a small fraction of the energy we've been using as a matter of course.” The federal government is incapable of managing the transition because no politician could advocate the changes required and remain in office. Strengthening local communities, which "can continue to flourish while empires fall around them," offers the best hope surviving the transition, according to the author. He urges people to learn practical skills of growing and preparing food, making clothing, low-tech medicine and basic handcrafts; "Anything that provides functional alternatives to energy-wasting lifestyles lays foundations for the transitional societies of the late 21st century, and ultimately for the sustainable successor cultures that will begin to emerge in North America."

 

THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE: HISTORY, PERSPECTIVES, AND ISSUES.
Congressional Research Service, RL33341, Library of Congress. Robert Bamberger. Web posted June 17, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

Congress authorized the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to help prevent a repetition of the economic dislocation caused by the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo. The capacity of the SPR is 727 million barrels, and it currently holds around 704 million barrels of crude oil. In addition, a Northeast Heating Oil Reserve (NHOR) holds 2 million barrels of heating oil in above-ground storage. The issue in recent years has been whether SPR capacity should be expanded and whether the reserve should continue to be filled. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT) required expansion of the SPR to its authorized maximum of 1 billion barrels.

 

INDIA IN AFRICA: MOVING BEYOND OIL.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. June 10, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 3 pages]

Energy is at the forefront of India’s strategy in Africa. India’s economy has grown at an incredible 8 percent per year in the last decade. Presently 30 percent of India‘s energy needs are met by oil, with 70 percent of oil supply being imported. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in order to stay on its current growth trajectory, India will have to increase its energy consumption by at least 3.6 percent annually. This will lead India’s energy demand to double by 2025, compelling it to import 90 percent of its petroleum supply. India already has energy ventures with Nigeria, Libya, Sudan, Ivory Coast, and Angola.

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ENERGY IN DANGER: IRAN, OIL, AND THE WEST.
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Simon Henderson. June 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 36 pages]

Every day, nearly 40 percent of the world’s internationally traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel over which Iran holds distinct military advantages. Given that the global economy is predicted to become even more dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies in the coming decades, Iran’s potentially critical influence on the flow of these supplies must be addressed. The author analyzes how the United States and its allies can loosen, or even bypass, the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

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ANALYSIS OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN THE ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. John Conti et al. May 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 23 pages]

The opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase U.S. domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. Between 2018 and 2030, cumulative additional oil production will be 2.6 billion barrels. Crude oil imports are projected to decline by about one barrel for every barrel of ANWR oil production.

 

TRADING NATURE.
World Wildlife Fund. Dilys Roe. May 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 100 pages]

The report finds that well-managed, legal and sustainable trade can have a significant impact on all eight of the Millennium Development Goals, the globally agreed roadmap which targets development assistance and poverty reduction. The wildlife products covered in the report include medicines, food, clothing, ornaments, furnishings, pets, ornamental plants, zoological and botanical display, research, manufacturing and construction materials. However, many of the benefits are threatened when illegal trade is allowed to flourish.

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AA08153
Klare, Michael THE END OF THE WORLD AS YOU KNOW IT ... AND THE RISE OF THE NEW ENERGY WORLD ORDER (Tomdispatch.com, posted April 16, 2008)
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Klare, professor of world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts, writes that soaring oil prices in recent weeks are “just a taste of the latest energy news”, which portend a fundamental shift in the modern world, which will only intensify as global energy supplies dwindle. We are witnessing the creation of a new world order, characterized by growing competition for the remaining supplies of fossil fuels and uranium, an unprecedented transfer of power and wealth from energy-deficit states such as the U.S., China, Japan and Europe, to energy-surplus states such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela. Sources of renewable energy, while promising, are not being developed and built out fast enough to avoid the multifaceted energy crisis that lies ahead. Klare writes, “in the new, energy-centric world we have all now entered, the price of oil will dominate our lives and power will reside in the hands of those who control its global distribution.” He believes that the most urgent decision facing the next U.S. president and Congress is how to speed the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable alternatives.

 

BIOFUELS INCENTIVES: A SUMMARY OF FEDERAL PROGRAMS.
Congressional Research Service, RL33572, Library of Congress. Brent D. Yacobucci. Web posted May 18, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 14 pages]

With recent high energy prices and the passage of major energy legislation in 2005 (P.L. 109-58) and 2007 (P.L. 110-140), there is ongoing Congressional interest in promoting alternatives to petroleum fuels. Biofuels, transportation fuels produced from plants and other organic materials, are of particular interest. Ethanol and biodiesel, the two most widely used biofuels, receive significant government support under these laws in the form of mandated fuel use, tax incentives, loans and grant programs, and certain regulatory requirements. This report outlines federal programs that provide direct or indirect incentives for biofuels.

STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2008.
World Bank. Karan Capoor and Philippe Ambrosi. May 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 78 pages]

The global carbon market grew to a US$64 billion in 2007, more than doubling over 2006, according to this World Bank report. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) also saw a doubling of both value and number of allowances transacted to a US$50 billion. The report’s data shows that the global carbon market doubled or tripled in value for all segments, except for projects in developing countries. It cautions that market momentum may be at a crossroads for many developing countries just as they are beginning to reap the benefits of carbon finance and are stepping forward to show that they are making efforts to mitigate climate change through advancing clean energy technology.

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OPEC REVENUES FACT SHEET.
Energy Information Administration, Department of Enerygy. Web posted May 6, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 3 pages]

Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned $674 billion in net oil export revenues in 2007, a 10 percent increase from 2006. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $194 billion, representing 29 percent of total OPEC revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached $1,143, an 8 percent increase from 2006. Based on projections from the EIA May 2008 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), OPEC net oil export revenues could be $1,060 billion in 2008 and $990 billion in 2009.

 

DOES RAIL TRANSIT SAVE ENERGY OR REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS?
Cato Institute. Randal O'Toole. Web posted May 3, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 24 pages]

Even though most rail transit system uses less energy than buses, it is heavily supplemented by extensive feeder bus operations, with very low number of users. Therefore, most rail transit systems end up using more energy per passenger mile. Many decades of energy savings would be needed to repay the energy cost of rail transit system construction. Even with the attempts to improve the environment by changing people’s behavior so that they drive less, such behavioral efforts have been far less successful than technical solutions to toxic air pollution associated with automobiles.

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OIL INDUSTRY PROFIT REVIEW 2007.
Congressional Research Service, RL34437, Library of Congress. Robert Pirog. Web posted April 28, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 11 pages]

Increases in the price of crude oil pushed the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to nearly $100 per barrel in the third quarter of 2007. It remained high as the demand growth in China, India, and other parts of the developing world continued. The political unrest in Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, and other suppliers continued to threaten the market. The decline of the value of the U.S. dollar on world currency markets has also been identified by some as a factor in the high price of oil. The profits of the five major integrated oil companies remained high in 2007, as they generally accounted for approximately 75% of both revenues and net incomes. At the same time, independent refiners and marketers experienced a difficult year that was reflected in profits in 2007. The potential volatility of the world oil and financial markets, coupled with the weakness of the U.S. and other economies, makes any profit forecast for 2008 highly speculative.

 

SMART COUNTRIES, FOOLISH CHOICES.
Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. Amity Shales and Gaurav Tiwari. April 8, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 26 pages]

It seems to be a common bellief that oil-rich countries are not friendly to the United States, and that entrepreneurial or “smart” countries are not endowed with oil. Shales and Gaurav find a triangular relationship between oil wealth, entrepreneurial spirit, and friendliness to the United States. They conclude that oil producing countries are not U.S.-friendly, in contrast to entrepreneurial countries, which are friendly to the United States, do not have oil. The authors recommend that it is in the U.S. interest to support education and economic diversification in oil producing countries so those countries can become entrepreneurial and friendly.

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RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY TOWARD NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES.
Congressional Research Service, RL34261, Library of Congress. Steven Woehrel. Web posted April 21, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 26 pages]

Russian oil and natural gas industries play an important role in the Europe and Eurasia energy market. At the same time, the Russian government has majority control of these industries. There are cases when assets were sold to non-Russian firms, Russian firms cut off energy supplies to the facilities and also build new pipelines to circumvent infrastructure, which are not under their control. The neighboring countries are concerned that Russia could use their energy dependency to interfere in their domestic affairs or to force them to make foreign policy concessions.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

AA08118
Nadeau, Robert THE ECONOMIST HAS NO CLOTHES (Scientific American, vol. 298, no. 3, March 2008)
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The author, who teaches environmental science and public policy at George Mason University, notes that the nineteenth-century creators of neoclassical economics -– the field whose theories underpin the modern market economy -– developed their theories by adapting equations from nineteenth-century physics that themselves became obsolete. Says Nadeau, “it is clear that neoclassical economics has become outdated ... [it] is based on unscientific assumptions that are hindering the implementation of viable economic solutions for global warming and other menacing environmental problems.” Among the assumptions of neoclassical economics: that natural resources exist in a domain separate from the closed market system; that the value of these resources can only be determined by the market system; that environmental damage is a cost external to the market system; and that there are no physical limits to the growth of market systems. The present-day global environmental crisis means that “this theory can no longer be regarded as useful ... because neoclassical economics does not even acknowledge the costs of environmental problems and the limits to economic growth, it constitutes one of the greatest barriers to combating climate change and other threats to the planet.”

 

SHORT TERM ENERGY AND SUMMER FUELS OUTLOOK.
Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. April 8, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 43 pages]

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, which averaged $72.32 per barrel in 2007, are projected to average $101 per barrel in 2008 and $92.50 per barrel in 2009. The projected higher costs for crude oil will contribute to higher petroleum product prices. Motor gasoline prices are projected to average $3.36 per gallon in 2008, up 55 cents from last year. The monthly average gasoline price is projected to peak at about $3.60 per gallon this spring. This document looks at production and consumption of oil for both OPEC and non-OPEC nations and evaluates the effects on the United States.

 

THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE: HISTORY, PERSPECTIVES, AND ISSUES.
Congressional Research Service, RL33341, Library of Congress. Robert Bamberger. Web posted April 7, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

Congress authorized the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA, P.L. 94-163) to help prevent a repetition of the economic dislocation caused by the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo. The program is managed by the Department of Energy (DOE). Physically, the SPR comprises five underground storage facilities, hollowed out from naturally occurring salt domes in Texas and Louisiana. Together, these facilities have a capacity of 727 million barrels of crude oil. Currently, it holds some 698 million barrels. This reports examines the background of the SPR and how the government manages it.

 

AA08085
ENERGY RESOURCES AND OUR FUTURE (Energy Bulletin, December 2, 2006)
Full Text

On May 14, 1957, Navy Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover, considered the Father of the Nuclear Submarine, gave a speech to the Minnesota State Medical Association which he acknowledged “had no medical connotations” — the rapidly growing consumption of fossil fuels in modern society. He noted that our technological base depends on enormous amounts of energy: “What assurance do we then have that our energy needs will continue to be supplied by fossil fuels? The answer is - in the long run – none ... Fossil fuels are not renewable. In this respect our energy base differs from that of all earlier civilizations. They could have maintained their energy supply by careful cultivation. We cannot.” Rickover warned that fossil fuel reserves would start to shrink in the early twenty-first century, and biofuels would not be the answer, as land would be needed to grow food rather than fuel. He urged his audience to “think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendents -- those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age.” While dated in a few minor respects, Rickover’s speech, given at the beginning of America’s modern consumption boom, is eerily prescient of our current energy predicament, and sheds important light on a debate that is only just starting to take place in the U.S. today.

 

FINLAND'S RATIONAL APPROACH TO NUCLEAR POWER.
Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #2117. Jack Spencer. March 19, 2008.
Full Text

Finland faces growing energy demands and needs to double its electricity generation capacity in the next 25 years. It ranks fifth in the world for per capita electricity consumption, so it has a significant incentive to secure long-term energy solutions. Unlike many nations, including the United States, Finland is developing a broad mix of environmentally friendly, economically competitive energy sources. Nuclear energy is an important part of that effort. Not only has Finland begun to construct a new, modern 1,600-megawatt reactor, but it is successfully executing a cohesive, workable strategy to manage spent fuel.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material].

 

ADVANCING SINO-U.S. ENERGY COOPERATION AMID OIL PRICE HIKES.
Brookings Institution. Richard Weixing Hu. March 12, 2008.
Full Text [direct link with additional links to related topics]

The high price of oil is hurting both the American and Chinese economies. Last year China’s inflation rate climbed to 4.8% after almost a decade of low financial risk. An “over-heated” economy, high investment, and a huge liquidity surge amid energy price spikes have dramatically raised the Chinese government’s concerns about inflation.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

IMPORTS FROM LATIN AMERICA MAY HELP U.S. MEET ENERGY GOALS.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, report on biofuel capabilities. March 4, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 243 pages]

The primary purpose of this study was to create analytically useful ‘supply curves’ for selected countries – most, but not all, in Latin America - and feedstocks. Such supply curves permit more detailed analysis of feedstock variables when modeling future global biofuel markets.

 

STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE: OPTIONS TO IMPROVE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF FILLING THE RESERVE.
Government Accountability Office; testimony before Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Frank Rusco. February 26, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 15 pages]

Purchasing oil to fill the SPR—as DOE did until 1994—is likely to be more cost-effective than exchanging oil from the royalty-in-kind program for other oil to fill the SPR.

 

MANAGING THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF EXPANDING GLOBAL ACCESS TO NUCLEAR POWER.
Congressional Research Service, RS34234, Library of Congress. Mary Beth Nikitin, et. al. Web posted February 10, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 46 pages]

After several decades of decline and disfavor, nuclear power is attracting renewed interest. New permit applications for 30 reactors have been filed in the United States, and another 150 are planned or proposed globally, with about a dozen more already under construction. Expanding global access to nuclear power has the potential to lead to the spread of sensitive nuclear technology.

 

HYDROGEN FUEL INITIATIVE.
Government Accountability Office (GAO) report 08-305. Web posted February 11, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 48 pages]

In order to lessen America’s dependence on oil, the Department of Energy is to develop technologies by 2015 that will enable American industry to produce readily available hydrogen powered automobiles by 2020. This report examines the progress of that initiative.

 

ENERGY IN 2020: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF COMMERCIALIZATION OF CELLULOSIC ETHANOL.
Stefan Osborne. Manufacturing and Services Competitiveness Report, Office of Competition and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. November 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

This report examines the effect on the U.S. economy by 2020 if cellulosic ethanol becomes commercially viable and if total ethanol production reaches 30 billion gallons. The findings of the report are:

• U.S. crude oil imports will be 4.1 percent lower than projected and the worldwide and domestic price of oil will be lower;
• The annual benefits to U.S. consumers of increased cellulosic ethanol will be $12.6 billion in 2020;
• The primary beneficiary of ethanol production will be crop-producing U.S. industries;
• U.S. oil producers will be hurt by the lower prices for crude oil.

 

NORTH AMERICAN OIL SANDS: HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT, PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE.
Marc Humphries. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. Updated December 11, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 30 pages]

Oil sand is a mixture of sand, bitumen, and water that can be mined for oil using thermal recovery techniques. The U.S. government and several major oil companies attempted to mine oil sand deposits in the 1930s, but several obstacles made it uneconomical. However, future investments in Canada’s oil sands will likely account for a greater share of U.S. oil imports and will probably continue to be an energy source for major oil companies.

 

WATER AND ENERGY FUTURES IN AN URBANIZED ASIA: SUSTAINING THE TIGER.
Erik R. Peterson and Rachel Posner, editors. Global Strategy Institute, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Web posted December 15, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 65 pages]

For the first time in history, more people live in urban rather than rural areas. By 2030, the U.N. predicts that 60 percent of the global population will live in cities. The Pacific- Asian region is a key driver in this urban transition.

This paper explores the complex phenomena of rapid urbanization, resource management (focusing on water and energy), and public policy challenges and opportunities in Asia. The Institute queried experts from nongovernmental organizations and academia for this report. The report is divided into three parts. The first part discusses China’s strategic plan to lead the world in science and technology and to resolve the region’s resource management conundrum. The report then transitions to a discussion of the technological innovations to help China with its environmental challenges. Lastly, experts lay out “new modes of environmental governance that could be implemented in both China and it neighboring developing countries.”

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

NUCLEAR POWER IN A WARMING WORLD: ASSESSING THE RISKS, ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES.
Lisbeth Gronlund, David Lochbaum, and Edwin Lyman. Union of Concerned Scientists. Web posted December 11, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 82 pages]

Nuclear power results in less global warming emissions, but nuclear power could also increase the threat to human safety and security due to a power plant meltdown or a terrorist attack. This report assesses the risks posed by nuclear power and offers ways to minimize them.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

MANAGING THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF EXPANDING GLOBAL ACCESS TO NUCLEAR POWER. Mary Beth Dunham Nikitin, Jill Marie Parillo, Sharron Squassoni, Anthony Andres and Mark Holt. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. November 1, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 44 pages]

Interest in nuclear power has been increasing. In the past few year, there have been 30 new permits issued in the U.S. and 150 planned or proposed globally. However, this expansion of nuclear power access could spread sensitive nuclear technology. 

Congress has an oversight role of fuel cycle proposals. Consequently, Congress has introduced several bills relating to nuclear energy. This report provides an overview of these bills.

 

U.S. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS RESERVES: 2006 ANNUAL REPORT: ADVANCE SUMMARY. Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. Web posted November 5, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 19 pages]

This report provides information on the natural gas proven reserves in the U.S. for 2006. The data are based on an analysis from the Annual Survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves, which were filed by 1,501 oil and gas wells operators.

 

MEASURING OUR NATION'S NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY: HIGHLIGHTS OF A FORUM. U.S. General Accountability Office (GAO) and the National Academy of Sciences. Web posted October 24, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 38 pages]

The forum participants discussed the “criteria to help in developing environmental accounts, lessons learned from the international community, and strategies for overcoming challenges.” Forum participants were officials and experts from federal agencies and national and international organizations.

 

AA07407
Heinberg, Richard BIG MELT MEETS BIG EMPTY: RETHINKING THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEAK OIL (MuseLetter No. 187, November 2007)
Full text [html format]

The author, a prominent educator and author on ecological issues, writes that environmental advocates are focusing on climate change to the exclusion of almost any other issue. The unprecedented melting of the summer ice pack in the Arctic during the summer of 2007 underscored this urgency. Heinberg notes that there are ambitious hopes to enact an equitable program of carbon emissions caps and trading rights. He writes that the developing world, led by China, now has a bargaining chip that in effect amounts to a “global suicide pact” -– they will not reduce their emissions until the West agrees to reduce theirs proportionately to the developing world’s increased emissions.

However, Heinberg notes that carbon-trading fails to take into account the fact that global oil production is peaking and may soon decline, followed by natural gas and coal in the not-too-distant future; if fuel is in scarce supply, no one will be interested in carbon-trading caps. What he believes is essential is for the industrialized West to set an example and acknowledge the necessity to make fundamental changes in its energy, transportation and agricultural systems. He writes that “ultimately, power holders must be convinced that such policies, if obnoxious to them now, will be far less destructive to their interests than a complete breakdown of society and biosphere -- which is the very real alternative. For a historic example of a similar conversion of elites think of the 1930s New Deal: then the titans of industry had to sacrifice some of their financial power in order to keep from losing it all.”

 

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030. Reference Data Series, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Web posted October 23, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 56 pages]

This 27th edition contains estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends to 2030. Nuclear data are based on actual statistical information, but energy and electricity data are estimated.

 

NON-OPEC OIL PRODUCTION. Toni Johnson. Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). October 19, 2007.
Full Text [html format, various pagings]

Oil producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) yield 60 percent of the world’s oil; but many of them face production hurdles such as older, less productive wells, increasing cost for new projects, and a rising demand. This paper discusses the challenges that these non-OPEC producers will encounter in the coming years.

 

AA07395
Klare, Michael BEYOND THE AGE OF PETROLEUM (The Nation, vol. 285, no. 15, November 12, 2007)
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The author, defense correspondent for The Nation and professor at Hampshire College, notes that, in its projections of future petroleum availability, the U.S. Department of Energy recently stopped talking about “oil” and began referring to “liquids”, a catch-all term for fuels from a variety of non-oil sources. In this oblique way, Klare writes, the U.S. government has “signaled a fundamental, near-epochal shift: we are nearing the end of the Petroleum Age and have entered the Age of Insufficiency.” Energy Department analysts, he notes, have long dismissed the notion that worldwide petroleum output may peak and decline in the near future, but recent reports from a variety of organizations, including the International Energy Agency and the (U.S.) National Petroleum Council, are warning that moment may be close at hand. Klare warns that the long-time U.S. policy of using the armed forces to protect oil shipments is unlikely to change in the next presidential administration, whether it is Republican or Democrat. He predicts that the arduous process of adjusting to the new reality of energy shortfalls will shape American policy debates for a long time. He cautions that most of the alternative fuels industries pose significant environmental dangers, and they should be closely examined before large sums are committed to their development. In his view, “the safest and most morally defensible course is to repudiate any ‘consensus’ calling for the use of force to protect overseas petroleum supplies and to strive to conserve what remains of the world's oil by using less of it.”

 

AA07362
Behr, Peter ENERGY NATIONALISM (CQ Global Researcher, Vol. 1, No. 7, July 2007, pp. 153-168)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Former Washington Post reporter Behr describes how explosive growth in China's and India's demand for oil coincided with Russia's recovery in oil output from its devastating collapse after the fall of the Soviet Union and financial credit crisis. Having surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer, Russia has enough power to intimidate its neighbors in Europe that depend on it for energy. Meanwhile, Venezuela is using its vast oil and gas reserves to promote socialist revolution at home and throughout the Western Hemisphere. How long Venezuela President Hugo Chavez can continue this way is questionable, as he is spending more on social programs than on maintaining and expanding oil production capacity.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS: BUSINESS REALITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES: SUMMARY REPORT. World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Web posted August 21, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 38 pages]

“Buildings are responsible for at least 40% of energy use in most countries”; but with knowledge and technology, it is possible to greatly reduce this use and improve comfort levels. This report combines the findings from existing research, hearings, workshops, and forums to establish a baseline of current facts and trends. It also summarizes the past year’s activities of the Energy Efficiency in Buildings (EEB) project.

 

AA07331
Ratterman, Walt. SOLAR ELECTRICITY FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD (Home Power, no. 119, June/July 2007, pp. 96-100)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, with the Oregon-based SunEnergy Power Corp. and a veteran of overseas solar installation projects, writes that installing solar-electric systems in developing-nation communities is as much about “training yourself” as it is about training others, and is fundamentally about helping local villagers improve their lives in a manner in which they choose. He notes that before any hardware is installed, his group first travels to a village to teach the residents the basics of energy management and to develop an energy budget. Training villagers to troubleshoot and repair the systems, and fostering a sense of ownership, to include fiscal management strategies is vital; quality control and adherence to National Electrical Code standards is especially important when installing systems in remote areas. The article illustrates projects installed in India, the tribal areas of Pakistan, Ecuador, Peru, Rwanda and the Thailand-Burma border areas.

 

AA07334
Hamilton, James. RUNNING DRY (Atlantic Monthly, vol. 300, no. 3, October 2007)
Full Text [html format]

The author, professor of economics at the University of California at San Diego, notes that Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field is by far the largest known petroleum deposit in the world, accounting for over half of Saudi oil output. However, Saudi oil production has been declining for the past two years, despite a threefold increase in drilling activity and two new oil fields producing about 800,000 barrels a day. Hamilton writes that, although the Saudis do not release production and reserves data, there is growing evidence that the northern half of the Ghawar field, the largest deposit of high-quality oil, from which Saudi Arabia has extracted oil for half a century, is largely depleted. He concludes, “the era when excess Saudi capacity could cushion geopolitical disruptions in oil supplies may well be over, even though the threat of such disruptions is greater than ever.”

 

AA07337
Verrastro, Frank; Ladislaw, Sarah. PROVIDING ENERGY SECURITY IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD (Washington Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 4, Autumn 2007, pp. 95-104)
Full text [pdf format, 10 pages]

Verrastro, director of and a senior fellow in the CSIS Energy and National Security Program, and Ladislaw, a fellow in the CSIS Energy and National Security Program, point out that not one of the 193 countries in the world is energy independent and maintain that “focusing on energy independence, although politically attractive, is a misguided quest that can actually distract from the more important objective of managing the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy future.”

The extent of the mutual interdependence of energy producers and consumers makes them all vulnerable to any event that affects supply or demand. Thus the “energy future” of the United States will be shaped by forces beyond its control. “Calls for energy independence absent major technological breakthroughs and a national commitment ring hollow and in the near term are both unrealistic and unachievable.” Energy policy is complex and does not lend itself to catchy slogans or unsustainable initiatives. What is needed is “a more honest assessment and open conversation about energy challenges, particularly in light of climate change concerns.”

 

REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC AND POLICY ASPECTS OF BIOFUELS. Deepak Rajagopal and David Zilberman. Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank. Web posted September 4, 2007.
Full Text [May need to cut and paste URL] [pdf format, 109 pages]

There has been a sudden growth in biofuels production especially ethanol and biodiesel. This paper analyzes the environmental, economic, and policy literature to determine the possible effects of these types of biofuels. It also identifies the gaps in understanding and makes recommendations for future works. 

The authors drew three major conclusions: (1) current biofuels are intensive users of land, water, energy, and chemicals; (2) environmental literature is dominated by net carbon offset and net energy gains, while the impact on human health, soil quality biodiversity, and water depletion receive less attention; and (3) “there is a fast expanding economic and policy literature that analyzes the various effects of biofuels from both micro and macro perspectives,” but there are many gaps.

 

AA07351
Woynillowicz, Dan TAR SANDS FEVER! (World Watch, vol. 20, no. 5, September/October 2007, pp. 8-13)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The Canadian province of Alberta contains deposits of bitumen, known as tar sands, that underlie about 140,000 square kilometers of boreal forest; the deposits are believed to contain about 1.7 trillion barrels of crude bitumen. When the U.S. Department of Energy officially acknowledged these reserves in 2003, it vaulted Canada’s oil reserves to second-largest in the world. However, the author writes that producing oil from the tar sands is “scraping the bottom of the oil barrel” -- the environmental costs of extracting the bitumen are tremendous. Thousands of square kilometers of forest have to be cleared away to gain access to the deposits, and large quantities of fresh water and natural gas are needed to produce steam heat to melt the bitumen from the silt. The waste-water from this process cannot be discharged back to its source, so it accumulates in vast impoundments. Canada is not meeting its Kyoto emissions reduction goals due to the tar sands operations. As oil prices have soared, the author notes that the rush is on to expand tar sands production as rapidly as possible. He warns that the environmental risks associated with this are “unprecedented in the history of North American energy production;” Canada and the U.S. need to greatly improve vehicle fuel efficiency, in order to ease demand for transportation fuels.

 

AA07349
Economy, Elizabeth THE GREAT LEAP BACKWARD? (Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 5, September-October 2007)
Full text [html format]

Economy, director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that China's environmental quality is deteriorating rapidly as local officials, ignoring central government environmental regulation, press for continued rapid economic expansion. Besides poisoning China's air and water and turning China's land to desert, Chinese polluters are aggravating global climate change by indiscriminate and illegal logging in tropical rainforests, degrading the oceans and producing vast quantities of coal-fired power plant emissions, which are circling the globe. By ignoring the environmental mess much longer, the Chinese could bring their remarkable economic expansion to a halt. Foreign governments and non-governmental organizations need to press China to clean up its act, institute necessary political reforms and combat corruption.

 

THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL WARMING: ECONOMIC MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. William Nordhaus. Yale University. July 24, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 253 pages]

Global warming presents a mix of the problems and challenges. Global warming (1) will be costly to slow or prevent; (2) has scientific and economic uncertainties; (3) will exist for decades or longer; and (4) crosses disciplines and parts of society. This study “uses tools of economics and mathematical modeling to analyze efficient and inefficient approaches to slowing global warming.” This paper is a revision of earlier models developed from 1974-2000.

 

AFRICA’S EMERGY CRISIS WORSENS: VIABLE CLEAN ENERGY ALTERNATIVES ARE IMPERATIVE. Rebecca Schultz. Center for American Progress. July 17, 2007.
Full text [html format]

"This summer brings another season of skyrocketing oil prices, which means already struggling economies in Africa may well shut down under additional cost burdens. As long as clean energy alternatives are absent in these countries, hard-won achievements in economic development will continue to fall prey to oil prices."

The impact of the high cost of imported oil on the economies of and quality of life in a number of African countries is described and include disrupted electricity supply, decreased state spending on public services, high transport costs and increased poverty. Alternative and renewable energy resources are necessary to maintain economic and social development and include solar, wind and geothermal power generation and biofuels.

 

NATIONAL SECURITY DIVIDEND OF GLOBAL CARBON MITIGATION. Bryan K. Mignone. AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, Brookings Institution. Web posted June 25, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 19 pages]

Energy and environment security are often joined in political circles and the press. This study, however, shows that policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations above ~500 ppm (parts per million) usually do not support policies that curb global oil dependence. On the other hand, policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide below ~500 ppm make environment and security objectives possible because this target demands reducing both coal and oil use. The author concludes “that investment in carbon mitigation can yield significant security dividends” and may change the political cost-benefit relationship especially in energy-importing nations.

 

RUSSIAN COMPANIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY: TOWARDS COMPETITIVE CORPORATE CITIZENSHIP. Nina Poussenkova and Elena Solntseva. Trade and Investment Programme, World Wildlife Fund (WWF). May 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 86 pages]

Over the past two decades, Russia has evolved from a closed command-and-control economy to an emerging market. Currently, Russia’s economic growth is primarily based on its natural resources.

The WWF conducted a survey of 310 companies in the corporate and financial sectors. The survey shows that companies with an international presence have a higher degree of environmental awareness and responsibility, especially those companies involved in polluting industries or those with a negative environmental situation. Overall, Russian companies could serve as positive role models for other developing or emerging economies “since they provide relevant examples of how environmental activities might be undertaken with very little support in terms of government policy.”

 

THE DIRTY TRUTH ABOUT COAL: WHY YESTERDAY’S TECHNOLOGY SHOULD NOT BE PART OF TOMORROW’S ENERGY FUTURE. Alice McKeown. Sierra Club. June 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

The author states that coal-fired power plants are major contributors to global warming. She further asserts that “mining and burning coal scars lungs, tears up the land, pollutes water, devastates communities, and makes global warming worse.” The coal industry, however, is pushing “clean” coal alternatives such as Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) that captures coal-fired exhaust and stores it underground and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that converts coal to a gas then burned to produce electricity.The study urges that coal be mined responsibly and burned cleanly without exacerbating global warming.

 

HOW TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS NOW. Mary Graham and Elena Fagotto. Policy Brief, Brookings Institution. Web posted June 5, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

The 110th Congress has proposed legislation to counter climate change, but none of the proposals would take full effect for at least five years after passage. The Administration estimates a 19 percent increase in U.S. emissions between 2000 and 2020; which, according to the brief, will contribute to drought, coastal flooding and water shortages. This brief proposes that “Congress legislate product-by-product and factory-by-factory disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions to create immediate incentives for companies to cut those emissions.”

 

AA07256
Gelbspan, Ross TWO PATHS FOR THE PLANET (American Prospect, vol. 18, no. 7, July/August 2007, pp. 45-48)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

Gelbspan, a longtime journalist interested in environmental issues, notes that humanity is facing “an increasingly chaotic future driven by a succession of climate-driven emergencies -- but the good news is that the bad news is at last being taken seriously.” Not only is climate change no longer seriously doubted, but many in the private sector now admit that the free-market forces that have helped create the current global environmental crisis are powerless to reverse it. A transition to a more sustainable global economy and way of life will require unprecedented feats of cooperation among governments. Many corporate executives privately admit that government regulation is required to mandate universal adoption of renewable technologies in lockstep, otherwise one company that heavily invests in renewable energy may be undercut by the competition. He notes that the “carbon crisis could be a profoundly transformative opportunity to begin to reverse the growing and unsustainable gap between the world's rich and poor.” As the world’s biggest energy user, the U.S. can be a global leader in the energy transition, or it can obstruct it. Gelbspan concludes, “the future of the world quite literally depends on whether U.S. leadership rises to the occasion.”

 

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE FUTURE OF COAL: THE PATH TO CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE. Ken Berlin and Robert M. Sussman. Center for American Progress. Web posted May 31, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 68 pages]

According to the International Energy Agency, new coal-fired power plants will increase worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 7.6 billion metric tons by 2030. The current growth of greenhouse gas emissions needs to be reversed to combat climate change. 

Technology exists that can capture CO2 emissions and store them in underground geologic formations. This technology is called carbon capture and storage (CCS). The authors suggest that delaying the implementation of this technology could have far-reaching consequences. The paper analyzes five policy tools that encourage power plant developers to use CCS.

 

AA07241
THE TRUTH ABOUT RECYCLING (Economist, Vol. 383, No. 8532, June 9, 2007, p. 24)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

This article offers a global survey of the state of materials recycling, weighing the economics, the techniques and momentum of the practice. There are several major concerns in the recycling industry -– first, local governments in the United States and Europe often find that recycling isn’t an economically viable practice because the costs of collecting, transporting, and sorting materials outweigh the market price. Another concern is whether recycled materials are bought and used in another manufacturing process which turns out a product that will end up ultimately in a landfill anyway. In some cases, products headed for recycling are disassembled in ways that release harmful gases into the environment, or expose workers to toxins. The most promising trend in the field is adoption of the “closed loop cycle” where materials and packaging are designed from the outset to create no waste, using materials that can be either recycled indefinitely or returned to the earth. Major corporations such as Wal-Mart, Toyota, and Nike have set goals to reach the zero-waste target.

 

AA07218
Lash, Jonathan; Wellington, Fred COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ON A WARMING PLANET (Harvard Business Review, vol. 85, no. 3, March 2007, pp. 95-102)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

From traditional smokestack industries to investment banking and other “clean” service businesses, companies throughout the world are going to feel the effects of global climate change, argue the authors, the president and a senior financial analyst of the World Resources Institute, an environmental research organization in Washington. Climate change presents the business community with an array of new risks -- regulatory and litigation costs, supply chain problems, reputation risks and physical threats by droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels. It also offer a number of new opportunities -- increased demand for new technologies and new services, like managing the already flourishing market for carbon allowances.

In the coming decades, the ability to limit a company’s exposure to climatic threats, knowledge of how to assess and quantify new risks, and readiness to take advantage of new opportunities will become important economic factors deciding the likelihood of a company’s failure or success, predict the authors. Even today, investors are discounting share prices they deem “poorly positioned to compete in the warming world,” and consumers are considering a company’s environmental record before making purchasing decisions, they say. Under those circumstances, “doing well by doing good” may no longer be enough as business climate policies are becoming an area of constant innovation and intense competition.

 

PAYMENT MECHANISMS FOR THE MANAGEMENT AND CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE CARIBBEAN. Luis G. Chaves. Environmental Networks, Inter-American Development Bank. May 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 52 pages]

Tourism is critical to the Caribbean economies--one out of four jobs is related to the tourism sector, and approximately 15 percent of the total gross national product (GDP) of the region comes from the tourism industry. However, human activities are exerting great pressure on the environment and ecosystems that may not be reversible.

This report provides a profile of the Payment of Environmental or Ecosystem Services (PES) on the tourism sector, and it explores the effectiveness of existing methods of conservation funding. The main objective of the report is to document “best practices and experiences in the tourism industry in the Caribbean for the payment of environmental services. . .” The report also identifies good examples of existing funding mechanisms that foster “sustainable environmental development and sustainable tourism growth.” 

 

TRADE-OFFS IN ALLOCATING ALLOWANCES FOR CO2 EMISSIONS. Terry Dinan. Economic and Budget Issue Brief, Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Congress. April 25, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 8 pages]

Congress is considering legislation that would impose a “cap and trade” program to reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. This legislation could motivate businesses and households to reduce emissions in a cost effective manner. This brief examines the pending legislation and how it would affect the “total cost of the policy to the U.S. economy, as well as the distribution of that cost among households in their various roles as workers, consumers, and investors.”

 

RUSSIA: ENERGY POLICIES AND CARBON MARKETS.
Sascha Lafeld and Jutta Rothe. World Wildlife Fund and Allianz. Web posted April 22, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

Energy supply and energy security are two of the most dominant themes in world politics today; they are also inseparable. Russia is one of the biggest players in the global energy market because:

• It is one of the largest suppliers of oil and gas to the European Union;
• It is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG); and
• Its GHG emissions are below the emissions quota target set by the Kyoto Protocol.

This paper offers recommendations for Russian domestic infrastructure development that would provide more accountability and verifiability of emission projects.

 

ASSESSMENT OF THE MINING SECTOR AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONGO BASIN REGION.
Erik Reed and Marta Miranda. World Wildlife Fund. Web posted April 18, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 27 pages]

This paper assesses the conflicts between development and conservation of the natural resources in the Congo Basin Region (CBR).

“Several countries in the CBR have implemented important initiatives to conserve their natural resources. Limited monitoring and maintenance of protected areas and failure to uphold legislative initiatives to protect the rich biodiversity and natural resource wealth could diminish these efforts to protect natural resources and harness their potential for future economic, cultural, and social use.” Meanwhile, companies have offered to build needed infrastructure in the CBR like roads, railways, power plants, and ports, if they can also develop the mineral deposits such as oil, gold, and diamonds. 

 

AA07156
Friedmann, Alice. PEAK SOIL: WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL, BIOFUELS ARE UNSUSTAINABLE AND A THREAT TO AMERICA.
(Culture Change, posted April 10, 2007)
Full text [html format]

In this extensively-referenced article, the author, a freelance journalist specializing in energy and a systems architect/engineer in California, points out that the current headlong rush into ethanol and biofuels in both the U.S.A. and around the world is unsustainable, and will take a heavy toll on the environment. All biofuels have a negative net energy return, and contribute to deforestation, water pollution, and topsoil depletion, due to continued extraction of plant material. In a special section on cellulosic ethanol, Friedemann enumerates the many daunting roadblocks to creating cellulosic fuels -- no organism or enzyme has yet been discovered that will handle widely varying plant feedstocks in impure environments, and the logistical challenges are immense. A 2000-dry-ton-per-day biorefinery would require “200 trucks per hour delivering biomass during harvest season ... and would need 90% of the no-till crop residues from the surrounding 7,000 square miles with half the farmers participating,” and would require a covered storage structure encompassing 100 acres with the bales stacked 25 feet high. She notes that the destruction of topsoil has never been considered in the biofuels boom, and laments that soil scientists have largely been left out of the debate. Friedemann concludes: “Responsible politicians need to tell Americans why their love affair with the car can’t continue. We are betting the farm on making cellulosic fuels work at a time when our energy and financial resources are diminishing. No matter how desperately we want to believe that human ingenuity will invent liquid or combustible fuels despite the laws of thermodynamics and how ecological systems actually work, the possibility of failure needs to be contemplated. There need to be plans for de-mechanization of the farm economy if liquid fuels aren’t found.”

 

GLOBALIZATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: WHY ALL THE FUSS?
David A. Wirth. Boston College Law School Faculty Papers, Boston College Law School. February 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 10 pages]

The relationship between globalization and environmental policies is not just “free trader versus self-serving protectionists.” This report sets out a structural and analytical framework for addressing some of the major issues between these two views points. The author discusses:

• Unilateral trade-based measures to protect the environment;
• Science-based tests applied through trade agreements;
• Foreign investment disciplines that may have a “chilling” effect on environmental issues; and
• The relationship between free trade agreements and multilateral environmental agreements.

U.S. domestic laws including federal administrative law and federal-state relations are also examined.

 

AA07133
Easterbrook, Gregg. GLOBAL WARMING: WHO LOSES – AND WHO WINS?
(Atlantic Monthly, vol. 299, no. 3, April 2007, pp. 52-64)
Full text [html format]

Long-time environmental writer Gregg Easterbrook discusses potential economic and geopolitical consequences of climate change in the 21st century. Rising sea levels could spell doom for low-lying countries, but warming temperatures could uncover heretofore untouched natural resources in now frozen climes. He notes that a shift in location of crucial natural resources could lead to a new balance of power in which “Russia and America are once again the world’s paired superpowers -– only this time during a Warming War instead of a Cold War.” An increase in wealth of the already rich northern countries could set back the “quest for world equity.” Easterbrook argues that today’s globalized economics “have been a positive force for increased equity ... but if climate change increases the value of northern land and resources, while leaving nations nearer the equator hotter and wracked by storms or droughts” there will be less incentive to help build the economies of poorer nations. Worsening situations in already poor equatorial countries could cause major migrations of refugees to the wealthier north. “If the very Earth itself turns against poor nations, punishing them with heat and storms, how could the U.S. morally deny the refugees succor?” He argues that nations should act now to control greenhouse gases because the “cost of controls is likely to be much lower than the cost of rebuilding the world.”

 

AA07111
Moran, Susan, et al. COAL RUSH!
(World Watch, Vol. 20, No. 1, January/February 2007, pp 8-23)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

In the first of three articles on coal, energy and climate change, Susan Moran reports on the push by U.S. electrical utilities to build 150 new coal-fired power plants in the next decade. Most of the plants will use conventional technologies, and only 3 plants will use clean-coal technology -- the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) process. The power companies’ decision to move ahead with old technology has been widely criticized -– the author notes that carbon caps and carbon trading will eventually be legislated, forcing difficult retrofits. In “China and Her Coal”, Hou Yanli and Hu Min of the China Sustainable Energy Program, an NGO, describe China’s massive increase in coal-fired power generation. They note that production prices and electricity costs does not reflect the true environmental and social costs of using coal -- the the poor safety record of mines, the high death rate among coal miners, and the high rates of respiratory disease and mortality due to pollution. In “Portraits in Carbon”, science writer Todd Neff looks at carbon as the basis for life on earth, how it became coal, the debate on carbon sequestration methods and current efforts to create carbon offsets. He concludes with the state of research on new uses for carbon, including carbon fiber and nanotubes. A short photo essay of coal miners accompanies the articles.

 

BUSINESS AND ECOSYSTEMS ISSUE BRIEF: ECOSYSTEM CHALLENGES AND BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS.
Issue Brief, Earthwatch Institute, World Conservation Union, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, and World Resources Institute. March 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

“Over the past 50 years human activity has altered ecosystems faster and more extensively than ever before in human history. That is the main finding of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), a four-year, international, scientific appraisal of the condition and trends in the Earth’s ecosystems.” This brief explores and discusses the implications for business in six major areas of the environment. Those are: “water scarcity, climate change, habitat change, biodiversity loss and invasive species, overexploitation of oceans, and nutrient overloading.”

 

PAYING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE: USING REVERSE AUCTIONS TO ALLOCATE FUNDING FOR CONSERVATION.
Suzie Greenhaigh, Mindy Selman, Jenny Guiling, and Jonathan St. John. WRI Policy Note, World Resources Institute. January 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 6 pages]

Reverse auctions are bidding systems “where sellers compete to supply buyers with a specified good or service, ensuring cost-effective environmental improvements.” These auctions have been used to fund agricultural conservation programs or environmental trading programs. This brief outlines the findings and lessons learned from the Conestoga Reverse Auction Project in Pennsylvania where a reverse auction was used to reduce phosphorus losses in the Conestoga Watershed.

 

AA07069
Deneen, Sally; Howard, Brian. BUILDINGS THAT BREATHE
(E Magazine, Vol. 18, No. 1, January/February 2007, pp. 27-39)
Full text

“Green” construction is coming of age in the U.S. and elsewhere. Three factors are encouraging the shift toward green buildings: rising energy prices; improved indoor air quality; and a desire to reduce the environmental “footprint”. Green building standards are set by the U.S. Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design program (LEED), and have been adopted in 54 U.S. cities and by 23 federal agencies. Seattle has led the way as the first of 20 states in the next five years that will build green housing for low-income residents. The authors note that, while green building technology has come far in recent years, getting Americans to build smaller homes would have longer-term benefits. The article is a comprehensive survey of the latest green design efforts across the U.S. Accompanying sidebars include discussions on the “cradle-to-cradle” concept, that products be designed for re-use, and an overview of green building in Europe, Asia and Brazil.

 

AA07065
Carey, John; Carter, Adrienne; Shameen, Assif. FOOD VS. FUEL: AS ENERGY DEMANDS DEVOUR CROPS ONCE MEANT FOR SUSTENANCE, THE ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURE ARE BEING REWRITTEN
(Business Week, No. 4020, February 5, 2007, p. 80)
Full text

The authors report that nearly one-fifth of the U.S.’s 2006 corn crop went to ethanol production. If all the new ethanol factories planned actually go into operation, fuel will use no less than half of the entire U.S. corn harvest by 2008, they add. The increased demand for corn has already doubled corn prices, which has impacted the price of everything from livestock feed to tortillas, they say. More land will have to be turned over to crops in order to meet future goals for biofuels, they note, and this has its own environmental consequences. However, there is hope that improved technologies and better crops for biofuels will offset these issues. The biofuels market will also remain vulnerable to drops in fossil fuel prices, they caution.

See also Business Week's special report "Green Business"

which provides additional articles on this and related issues.

 

 

ENDING OIL DEPENDENCE.
David Sandalow. The Brookings Institution. January 22, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 27 pages]

This paper looks at the U.S.’s oil dependence and the author offers several policy proposals to solve this dependency. “Plug-in hybrid engines, biofuels and other technologies can help end the United States’ oil dependence in a generation. Doing so would provide important national security, environmental and economic benefits. A broad political consensus and game-changing technological advances create the conditions for dramatic change.” The author stresses that there are no simple or short-term solutions to this crisis.

 

THE U. S. NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM: AN ECONOMIC ASSET AT RISK.
Jared Hardner and Bruce McKenney. Hardner & Gullison prepared for the National Parks Conservation Association. Web posted December 5, 2006.
Full Text [pdf format, 46 pages]

“The U.S. National Park System is an economic asset at risk.” The park system generates at least four dollars in value for every tax dollar it receives, yet it has suffered an $80 million shortfall. The U.S. Congress established and maintains the Park Service; but due to a lack of adequate funding, the park system is now in serious jeopardy as park infrastructures decay and ecosystems are overrun, and historical treasures are not preserved.

The authors used a cost-benefit analysis to examine the national economic benefits of the park service. They analyzed the economic impact of the national parks on the communities, and measured economic growth in the regional parks. Their conclusion was that “the U.S. National Park Service is an asset of tremendous economic value at the national, regional, and local level. Failure to properly manage our parks puts this public asset in jeopardy.”

DEBT-FOR-NATURE INITIATIVES AND THE TROPICAL FOREST CONSERVATION ACT: STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION.
Pervaze A. Sheikh. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. Updated October 11, 2006.
Full report [pdf format, 21 pages]

Debt-for-nature initiatives were conceived to address the rapid loss of resources and biodiversity in developing countries that were heavily indebted to foreign creditors. Conservationists had noted that the pressure to pay off foreign debts in hard currency was leading to increased levels of natural resource exports (i.e., timber, cattle, minerals, and agricultural products) at the expense of the environment. In many cases, indebted developing countries had difficulty meeting their hard currency debt obligations and defaulted. Reducing foreign debt and allowing for portions of it to be paid with local currency while increasing funds for the environment was thought to improve environmental conditions in developing countries and had the advantage of relieving the debtor country’s difficulties in procuring sufficient hard currency to pay off its debts. Money generated from debt-for-nature transactions has been used to fund a variety of projects, ranging from national park protection in Costa Rica to supporting ecotourism in Ghana and conserving tropical forests in Bangladesh.

Since 1993, there has been a decline in the number of debt-for-nature transactions involving public and private funds. Accounting changes requiring new appropriations to support official public debt transactions in creditor countries such as the United States, and a higher price of commercial debt on secondary markets, are two contributing factors in the decrease of debt-for-nature transactions. While Congress has periodically authorized U.S. participation in three-party debt-for-nature swaps and has supported two bilateral debt-for-nature initiatives, appropriations to support these types of efforts have generally diminished over the years. This report provides a description of debt-for-nature transactions and a summary of the Tropical Forest Conservation Act.

 

GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE: CORPORATE STRATEGIES THAT ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
Andrew J. Hoffman. Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Web-posted October 18, 2006.
Full report [pdf format, 150 pages]

This report lays out a step-by-step approach for companies to reshape their business strategies in order to succeed in a future marketplace where greenhouse gases are regulated and carbon-efficient production is in demand. Many of the companies highlighted in the report are shifting their focus from managing the financial risks of climate change to exploiting new business opportunities for energy efficient and low-carbon products and services.

Using six highly detailed case studies, as well as results from a 100-question survey completed by 31 companies, the report offers an in-depth look at the development and implementation of corporate strategies that address climate change. The featured case studies include Alcoa, Duke Energy, DuPont, Shell, Swiss Re, and Whirlpool.

One of the report's major conclusions is that businesses need to engage actively with government in the development of climate policy. Of 31 major corporations polled by the author, nearly all companies believe that federal greenhouse gas standards are imminent, and 84 percent of these companies believe regulations will take effect before 2015.

 

BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY.
Worldwatch Institute. June 2006.

[Note: To view and/or download the short and extended summaries, one must first register via this page

. The final report will be published later this year.]

 

Extended Summary [pdf format, 38 pages]

 

Short Summary [pdf format, 8 pages]

 

Conference Agenda and Presentations [pdf format, various pagings]

 

Selected Trends and Facts [html format, 4 printed pages]

 

In view of the forecasted shortages and increasing prices of fossil fuels, climate change, and the need for new income and employment opportunities in rural areas, the growth of biofuels has become a hot topic in energy policy discussions. The use of biofuels is developing worldwide. Brazil, the United States, many European countries, and a growing number of countries in Southeast Asia are now pushing the advancement of biofuels. Brazil and the United States are the largest producers of ethanol in the world. China, too, has launched a program to advance the use of ethanol as a fuel.

This study, commissioned by the German government, makes several recommendations:

1. Strengthen the Market. Biofuel policies should focus on market development, based on sound fiscal incentives and support for private investment, infrastructure development, and the building of transportation fleets that are able to use the new fuels.
2. Speed the Transition to Next-Generation Technologies. It is critical to expedite the transition to the next generation of biofuel feedstock and technologies, which will allow for dramatically increased production at lower cost, while minimizing environmental impacts.
3. Protect the Resource Base. Maintaining soil productivity, water quality, and other ecosystem services is essential. National and international environmental sustainability principles and certification systems are important for protecting resources as well as maintaining public trust in the merits of biofuels.
4. Facilitate Sustainable International Biofuel Trade. Continued rapid growth of biofuels will require the development of a true international market in these fuels, unimpeded by the trade restrictions in place today. Freer movement of biofuels around the world should be coupled with social and environmental standards and a credible system to certify compliance.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

AA06245
Brown, Lester R. RESCUING A PLANET UNDER STRESS
(The Futurist, vol. 40, no. 4, July-August 2006, pp. 18-25)
View on publishers website

The Earth cannot sustain the levels of energy and resource consumption of the Western lifestyle if it is adopted by hundreds of millions of people in developing nations, writes the president of the Earth Policy Institute. The world must move toward a new economic model powered by renewable energy -- such as wind, solar, geothermal and biofuels -- and by a manufacturing strategy which designs and creates all products for ultimate recycling. Technology and knowledge of how to achieve this new economic model is well within the human grasp, if not already available, but making the transition before economic decline and environmental collapse begin is the difficult thing. Brown suggests movement to an honest market which gives weight to factors currently overlooked or ignored -- the indirect prices of production, the cost of environmental damage and consequences to future generations.

 

AFRICA ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK-2: OUR ENVIRONMENT, OUR WEALTH.
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). June 27, 2006.
Download [pdf format, 576 pages]

Contents page [individual chapters in pdf format]

 

The authors of this report argue that Africa's vast natural wealth can -- if sensitively, sustainably and creatively managed -- be the basis for a continental revitalization. The report is divided into five sections:

• Section 1: Environment for Development sets the overall context for the analysis, in particular highlighting the human dimension in the environment-human nexus.
• Section 2: Environmental State-and-Trends: 20-Year Retrospective provides an integrated assessment of environmental change, and its relationship to development opportunities.
• Section 3: Emerging Challenges analyzes four important issues that emerge from Section 2, that have wide-ranging implications for human well-being, development and the state of the environment.
• Section 4: Outlook considers, through scenario analysis, how different policy choices can shape future outcomes.
• Section 5: Policy Opportunities identifies policy options, directly related to sections 2 and 3, which might be adopted in order to achieve Africa's environmental and development objectives.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

 

AA06171
Lemley, Brad ANYTHING INTO OIL (Discover, Vol. 27, No. 4, April 2006, pp. 46-51)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Lemley detailed the thermal conversion process (formerly called the thermal depolymerization process) of using heat and pressure to convert waste materials into fuel oil and other recyclable materials in May 2003 (AA03196), and he provided an update on the challenges of starting full-scale processing in July 2004 (AA04202). Now he reports on the operation of the first commercial biorefinery in the world that can make oil from a variety of waste. This plant converts turkey slaughterhouse waste into fuel oil, high-grade fertilizer and water. Start-up delays, technical adjustments and higher operating costs have resulted in financial losses, but the owner of the plant expects it to begin operating at a profit because a federal government subsidy for renewable diesel fuel went into effect in early 2006. Future plans for the company include building plants in Europe to process beef slaughterhouse waste because it is expected that the process will destroy prions, the proteins that cause mad cow disease. The company has also demonstrated the process for automobile recyclers using their waste of plastics, fabrics, rubber and nylon that currently is dumped in landfills.

 

AA06110
THE HIGH COST OF CHEAP COAL (National Geographic, vol. 209, no. 3, March 2006, pp. 96-123)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Supplies of oil and natural gas are tight because of skyrocketing worldwide demand, and their cost is soaring. Coal, still in plentiful supply, is making a comeback, but this two-part series of articles notes that there will be a high environmental cost of returning to coal in a big way. In THE COAL PARADOX, Tim Appenzeller writes of the threat that large numbers of coal-fired power plants around the world pose to global climate, and the new "clean-coal" technologies that might reduce or eliminate the emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur and mercury from burning coal. In WHEN MOUNTAINS MOVE, John Mitchell describes the environmentally destructive "mountaintop-removal" method of coal mining that has been taking place in recent years in the Appalachian region of the eastern U.S.

 

AA06055B
Fischer, James; Finnell, Janine CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: WORKING TOWARD CLEAN, ABUNDANT, RELIABLE, AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY
(Resource, Vol. 13, No. 1, January/February 2006, pp. 9-10)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The authors say worldwide energy use could grow by more than fifty percent -- with U.S. energy use expected to increase by a third -- in the next two decades. Increased global demand presents challenges to find new ways to increase energy efficiency, decrease carbon dioxide emissions, and replace aging electric grids that are growing increasingly vulnerable to power outages, they write. Technological advances are creating opportunities to transform energy consumption and production through such things as fuel cells, renewable energies, new lighting options, and distributed power networks, they explain. Energy policies can help accelerate these technologies by encouraging research and development, providing market-based incentives and educating consumers, the authors note.

 

LIQUID ASSETS: HOW DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND WATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES AFFECT FRESHWATER RESOURCES.
Jill Boberg. The RAND Corporation. Web-posted October 2005.
Download the document [pdf format, 154 pages]

This monograph examines the interaction between demographic factors and water resources, and how they influence the availability of water at the local level. The monograph focuses primarily on conditions in developing countries, and should be of interest to policymakers, academics and others concerned with the interaction between demographic issues and water and other environmental issues.

The author addresses the question of whether there will be a global water crisis. She concludes that localized problems will undoubtedly continue, and more widespread problems may continue in some areas, depending on local physical, social, economic, and cultural conditions. However, she writes, a global water crisis can be averted, in part, by researching demographic variables that are less understood.

Note: Contains copyrighted material.

 

AA05380
Spencer, Roy THE KILLER THAT MATTERS MOST (Tech Central Station, 18 November 2005)
View article on publisher's website

Spencer says that while research groups focus on deaths from global warming, the real killer in Africa is poverty and international trade policies that prevent them from protecting themselves from diseases that are easily preventable. Environmental and trade policies that benefit rich countries are obstacles to Africa's battle against poverty and disease, he states. Global warming and diseases are best confronted by the technological advances that come with wealth, he explains, so the developed world needs to make overcoming poverty the most important criteria for achieving environmental goals

 

AA05383
Howard, Brian C. GROUNDS FOR CHANGE: THE TEMPEST IN YOUR MORNING CUP
View article on publisher's website

Globally, more than 500 billion cups of coffee are made each year. But the average consumer is scarcely aware that coffee production is the cause of widespread deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution and social ills -- but that it also has the potential to reverse these problems. About 30 years ago, many coffee farmers began converting to "technified" or "full-sun" production, which provides improved short-term yields of around 30 percent. Ecologists now realize that full-sun production has serious consequences for the environment and human health.

In 1980, scientists in Guatemala discovered that the forest canopy of shade-grown coffee farms could support biodiversity that approximates natural forests, in contrast to agribusiness-driven full-sun monocultures, which lack the nutrients provided by the surrounding environment, and require large amounts of chemical pesticides and fertilizers. Big coffee companies are not moving in the direction of sustainability, but activists have forced them to pay attention. A growing number of environmentally responsible options now line the shelves of coffee shops and supermarkets, so consumers can help promote sustainability in coffee production.

 

AFRICA’S ENERGY CRISIS WORSENS: VIABLE CLEAN ENERGY ALTERNATIVES ARE IMPERATIVE. Rebecca Schultz. Center for American Progress. July 17, 2007.
Full text [html format]

"This summer brings another season of skyrocketing oil prices, which means already struggling economies in Africa may well shut down under additional cost burdens. As long as clean energy alternatives are absent in these countries, hard-won achievements in economic development will continue to fall prey to oil prices."

The impact of the high cost of imported oil on the economies of and quality of life in a number of African countries is described and include disrupted electricity supply, decreased state spending on public services, high transport costs and increased poverty. Alternative and renewable energy resources are necessary to maintain economic and social development and include solar, wind and geothermal power generation and biofuels.

 

MARKET OR STATE? THREE DECADES OF REFORM IN THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY. Jaime Millán. Sustainable Development Department, Inter-American Development Bank. Web posted July 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 308 pages]

Efficient and reliable electricity services have been a priority in all Latin American countries for over 100 years. This paper examines the state verses market approach of the electric power industry. It explains that due to the diversity of resources, institutional developments, and political circumstances in each country, there is no one simple formula for a state and market mix.

 

ENERGY MARKET AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF S.280, THE CLIMATE STEWARDSHIP AND INNOVATION ACT OF 2007. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. July 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 92 pages]

This report provides estimates of the economic impact of Senate Bill S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007. This bill would establish a series of caps on greenhouse gases starting in 2012 and continuing to 2050. The report provides estimates of the effects on energy markets and the economy through 2030.

 

AA07296
Klare, Michael T. ENTERING THE TOUGH OIL ERA: THE NEW ENERGY PESSIMISM (TomDispatch.com, posted August 16, 2007)
Full text [html format]

The author, professor at Hampshire College (Amherst, Massachusetts), notes that when “peak oil” -– the theory that global oil production will peak and decline due to shrinking worldwide petroleum reserves -– gained public attention several years ago, many in the oil industry and business establishment dismissed it as a fringe notion. Klare writes that “recently, however, a spate of high-level government and industry reports have begun to suggest that the original peak-oil theorists were far closer to the grim reality of global-oil availability than industry analysts were willing to admit.” Notably, the usually conservative Paris-based International Energy Agency released a report in early July that global oil production is unlikely to keep up with demand over the next five years, a situation that may result in oil shortages.

He notes that most of the “easy oil” –- the high-quality, low-sulfur oil in on-land reservoirs near the surface -- has already been found and consumed; what is left is the “tough oil”, the fields in deep locations, the heavy, high-sulfur-content oils that require more processing, or that are in countries experiencing political instability. Over the next five years, oil production will need to increase by several million barrels per day per year, to account for growing demand and depletion of existing fields, and infrastructure to exploit the “tough-oil” reserves over the next two decades will cost on the order of USD 20 trillion –- an unlikely prospect in a world increasingly dominated by national-government-owned oil companies.

Klare concludes, “whether or not the peak in world oil output is at hand, the future of the global oil supply in a world of endlessly growing demand appears grim.”

 

FACING THE HARD TRUTHS ABOUT ENERGY: A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW TO 2030 OF GLOBAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS: DRAFT REPORT. NPC Global Oil and Gas Study, National Petroleum Council (NPC). July 18, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 422 pages]

This study found that global energy demand is projected to grow by 50-60 percent by 2030. At the same time, there are risks to the supply of reliable, affordable energy. The risks, as outlined in this report, are political, infrastructure requirements, and lack of a trained workforce. Observations about the future of the global energy sector are:

• Coal, oil and natural gas will remain indispensable;
• The world is not running out of energy resources;
• Expansion of economic energy sources is required;
• The concept of “energy independence” is not realistic;
• The workforce needs to be trained and replenished; and
• Carbon dioxide emission policies could increase costs and decrease demand.

The report concludes with strategies to meet these challenges.

 

THE ENERGY SITUATION IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. Sidney Weintraub. Center for Strategic and International Studies. July 1, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 12 pages]

Energy cooperation is much greater in North America than in South America; e.g., Canada-U.S. relationship versus the Bolivia-Chile standoff. Many of the problems are caused by “defensive nationalism,” such as Ecuador’s relations with foreign oil companies and Mexico’s resistance to private investment in oil exploration and production. The author states there is often a “sharp difference between rhetorical objectives and concrete actions . . .” causing failures at a high cost.

 

ANNUAL ENERGY REVIEW: 2006. Energy Information Agency, U.S. Department of Energy. June 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 441 pages]

This annual report provides analysts with long-term historical data to identify and understand energy trends, milestones, and relationships. The data include total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, and financial and environment indicators. For the first time an ethanol and biofuels summary table is included.

 

AA07265
Jubak, Jim THE OIL SQUEEZE HAS JUST BEGUN (MSN MoneyCentral, posted July 17, 2007)
Full text

The author, a financial columnist and commentator, citing a report recently issued by the International Energy Agency, warns that the global oil markets will get progressively worse over the next five years, due to growing worldwide demand and shrinking supply. Due to underinvestment or simply geological depletion, oil output is in decline in the majority of the oil-exporting countries, while demand continues to grow, especially in China but also in the oil-exporting countries themselves. Jubak notes that oil consumption is built in to most everyday activities, such as commuting to work, and the U.S., the world’s largest oil user, does not have a national program to reduce consumption of petroleum. Given the long lead times to implement comprehensive conservation, there are few if any effective short-term remedies.

 

THE DIRTY TRUTH ABOUT COAL: WHY YESTERDAY’S TECHNOLOGY SHOULD NOT BE PART OF TOMORROW’S ENERGY FUTURE. Alice McKeown. Sierra Club. June 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 20 pages]

The author states that coal-fired power plants are major contributors to global warming. She further asserts that “mining and burning coal scars lungs, tears up the land, pollutes water, devastates communities, and makes global warming worse.” The coal industry, however, is pushing “clean” coal alternatives such as Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) that captures coal-fired exhaust and stores it underground and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) that converts coal to a gas then burned to produce electricity.The study urges that coal be mined responsibly and burned cleanly without exacerbating global warming.

 

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE FUTURE OF COAL: THE PATH TO CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE. Ken Berlin and Robert M. Sussman. Center for American Progress. Web posted May 31, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 68 pages]

According to the International Energy Agency, new coal-fired power plants will increase worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 7.6 billion metric tons by 2030. The current growth of greenhouse gas emissions needs to be reversed to combat climate change. 

Technology exists that can capture CO2 emissions and store them in underground geologic formations. This technology is called carbon capture and storage (CCS). The authors suggest that delaying the implementation of this technology could have far-reaching consequences. The paper analyzes five policy tools that encourage power plant developers to use CCS.

 

ANNUAL REPORT ON U.S. WIND POWER INSTALLATION, COST, AND PERFORMANCE TRENDS: 2006. Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger. U.S. Department of Energy. May 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 24 pages]

The wind power industry is growing both in the U.S. and globally. This report provides a detailed overview of the development and trends in this market. It reviews the price of wind power and how those prices carry to wholesale power prices. The report also examines other factors that impact the U.S. wind power market such as grid integration costs, transmission issues, and policy drivers.

 

SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY: A FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKERS. UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), The United Nations. Web posted May 8, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 64 pages]

“This paper on sustainable bioenergy was drafted collectively by UN-Energy members, which include all of the United Nations (UN) agencies, programmes, and organizations working in the area of energy, reflecting their insights and expertise. It is intended to contribute to international discussions on the strategies and policies needed to ensure economic, sustainable, and equitable development of bioenergy in the years ahead.”

 

A BLUEPRINT FOR GREEN ENERGY IN THE AMERICAS: STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR BRAZIL AND THE HEMISPHERE: FEATURING: THE GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2007.
Garten Rothkopf. Inter-American Development Bank. Web posted April 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 669 pages]

This is a comprehensive study of the biofuel markets. The study surveyed the development of biofuels in 50 countries worldwide and identified trends that have shaped markets, policies, regulations, investment, and growth. The report also offers recommendations for building and maintaining competitive biofuels industries in the Americas, and its goal is to provide “a strategic blueprint for IDB activities in the region . . .”

 

AA07195
Heinberg, Richard BURNING THE FURNITURE (Richard Heinberg’s MuseLetter, No. 179, March 2007)
Full text [pdf format, 47 pages]

Faced with the prospect of growing demand for shrinking oil and gas supplies, many countries are banking on coal to make up a growing share of the energy mix. Heinberg, a journalist and educator, writes that a recent study on global coal reserves published by the Germany-based Energy Watch Group, which reports to the German Parliament, has far-reaching implications –- recoverable coal reserves are much smaller than is commonly thought, and that a peak in global coal production is possible as soon as 15 years from now. The report’s authors note that data on global coal reserves is badly outdated or unreliable; countries that have taken the effort to update their estimates have experienced, in many cases, downward revisions on the order of 50-90 percent. China, the world’s largest coal producer, reports 55 years of coal reserves left at current rates of consumption -– but their reserves estimates are 15 years old, China’s coal consumption is increasing rapidly, and a move toward coal-to-liquid-fuels production means that China’s coal production may peak in 5-15 years. In the U.S., the world’s second-largest producer, total volumes may increase for 10-15 years, but in terms of energy content, U.S. coal production peaked in 1998. Heinberg writes that the current global energy predicament, far from being limited to a potential shortfall of liquid transportation fuels, is growing into a “broad-spectrum energy crisis” impacting all aspects of modern life. He concludes that “nations that are currently dependent on coal -- China and the U.S. especially -- would be wise to begin reducing consumption now, not only in the interests of climate protection, but also to reduce societal vulnerability arising from dependence on a resource that will soon begin to become more scarce and expensive.”

 

AA07196
Kunstler, James Howard MAKING OTHER ARRANGEMENTS: A WAKE-UP CALL TO A CITIZENRY IN THE SHADOW OF OIL SCARCITY (Orion, January/February 2007)
Full text

Kunstler, a journalist, author and provocative public speaker, notes that America is “sleepwalking into a permanent energy crisis”. The entire U.S. economic infrastructure was built when petroleum was cheap and plentiful -- Kunstler argues that American suburbia, with its “far-flung housing subdivisions, commercial highway strips, big-box stores, and all the other furnishings and accessories of extreme car dependence ... represents the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world, and will function poorly, if at all, in an oil-scarce future.” Most of the efforts currently underway to reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil revolve around keeping the existing infrastructure running, Kunstler writes, but “we are not going to run Wal-Mart, Walt Disney World, Monsanto, and the Interstate Highway System on any combination of solar or wind energy, hydrogen, ethanol, tar sands, oil shale, methane hydrates, nuclear power, [or] thermal depolymerization ... we will desperately use many of these things in many ways, but we are likely to be disappointed in what they can actually do for us.” He argues that Americans “have to make other arrangements for the basic activities of everyday life”, including rehabilitation of the nationwide passenger rail network, electrifying local mass transit, localizing food production and manufacturing, changing commuting and work patterns, moving back to small towns, and rethinking the health-care and educational systems.

 

AA07197
Runge, C. Ford; Senauer, Benjamin HOW BIOFUELS COULD STARVE THE POOR (Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 3, May-June 2007, pp. 41-54)
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The rush to biofuels by advanced economies could lead to more hunger in low-income countries, according to the authors, both at the University of Minnesota. The combination of high oil prices and subsidies to U.S. agribusiness companies has resulted in diversion of a growing percentage of the U.S. corn crop into biofuel production. That has raised the price not only of corn, but also of wheat and rice, which are more in demand as substitutes for corn, and of seemingly unrelated crops that U.S. farmers are planting less as they plant more corn. Brazil, Europe, and Southeast Asian countries are also diverting more land to biofuel crops. If oil prices remain high and if government policies do not change, global prices for corn are likely to rise 20 percent by 2010 and more than 40 percent by 2020, with similar increases for wheat and oilseeds. "In the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where cassava is a staple, its price is expected to increase by 33 percent by 2010 and 135 percent by 2020," the authors say. Poor people in low-income countries that import both fuel and food may find that the necessities of life may become unaffordable. For many landless laborers and rural subsistence farmers, large increases in staple food prices will mean malnutrition and hunger.

 

NUCLEAR ENERGY: BALANCING BENEFITS AND RISKS.
Charles D. Ferguson. Council Special Report, Council on Foreign Relations. Web posted April 19, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 51 pages]

With increased concern over energy issues and global climate change, many people are taking a second look at nuclear power. Nuclear power is also critical to U.S. foreign policy because of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The author “argues that nuclear energy, despite its attributes, is unlikely to play a major role in the coming decades in strengthening energy security or in countering the harmful effects of climate change.”

 

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN U.S. ENERGY 2004.
Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. Web posted April 18, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 10 pages]

This report provides an assessment of foreign ownership of energy assets in the United States. The U.S. Department of Energy is required to submit this report to Congress each year. The report is “a summary of activities in the United States by companies which are foreign owned or controlled and which own or control United States energy sources and supplies ….” The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares this information to be used by the Congress, government agencies, industry analysts, and the general public.

 

THE GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF BIOFUELS: POTENTIAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL IN THE COMING DECADE.
Daniel Budny. Brazil Institute Special Report, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. April 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 8 pages]

This paper reports the results and recommendations from a recent conference held at the Wilson Center for U.S. and Brazilian experts that assessed the agricultural implications of increased production and trade of biofuels. The energy policies of both countries have implications beyond their own borders; therefore, the consequences of their policies must be “analyzed within the international context and be conscious of market interconnections.” The conference participants detailed a six-policy alternative for the U.S. energy sector.

 

ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION: APPROACHES FOR ENERGIZING A SAGGING INDUSTRY.
Amy Abel. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. February 12, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 26 pages]

This report provides background information on the regulatory structure of the electric utility industry and its transmission systems at both the federal and state levels. Some of the issues covered are congested transmission systems, security of physical assets, transmission line locations, cost implications, pricing of new projects, and funding.

 

ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2007: WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030. 
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.  February 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 242 pages]

This report presents a long-term projection of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030.  It provides a summary of referenced cases; discusses evolving legislation and regulation issues including an update of key provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT2005); and supplies a summary of sunset provisions in selected fuel taxes and tax credits.

 

AA07084
Xavier, Marcus Renato. THE BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE ETHANOL EXPERIENCE
(Competitive Enterprise Institute, Issue Analysis, no. 3, February 15, 2007, 12 pp.)
Full text [html format]

Brazil's model of ethanol production is not a suitable one for the U.S. to use in developing an energy security policy, notes the author, an economist at the Federation of Industries of the state of Minas Gerais (Brazil). Sugarcane, a labor-intensive ethanol crop, can be produced in Brazil less expensively than corn can be grown in the U.S. Brazil's climate, abundance of fertile land and plentiful rainfall in sugarcane growing areas and ethanol's years of popularity as a consumer product are among that county's advantages. Corn is less efficient than sugarcane, requiring twice as much land to produce equal amounts of ethanol. Corn-based ethanol production processing requires more non-renewable fuel compared to the production of sugarcane ethanol. Xavier says corn-based ethanol in the United States would be viable only if it could compete on the same cost basis as other fuels. As well, he says, Brazil's ethanol program is not a panacea for world energy challenges. Its production infrastructure grew from decades of huge taxpayer subsidies and it is still affected by volatile oil prices.

 

AA07053
Folger, Tim. CAN COAL COME CLEAN?
(Discover, vol. 27, no. 12, December 2006, pp. 42-47)
Full text

The author notes that with fossil fuel prices rising, and nuclear power in a political stalemate, global appetite for coal is soaring. Over 150 coal-fired power plants will be built in the U.S. over the next two decades, and China is expected to construct over 550 plants in the next eight years. Although abundant, coal is the filthiest fuel, both in its extraction and combustion. Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants, of which there are only four worldwide, will probably be the “means by which we survive our coal-fueled future,” notes Folger. In the IGCC process, the coal is converted into gas; all impurities are extracted before the combustion process, and the carbon dioxide is sequestered. The only drawback is economic -– the plants are more expensive to build and there is currently no incentive for capturing carbon in the U.S., India or China, the three biggest consumers of coal. The author notes, however, that the “mounting evidence of climate change will spook the world into action”; several observers expect mandatory economy-wide changes to be in place in the next few years, including measures by China and India, which both have large populations at risk from rising sea levels.

 

CHINA: GRAPPLING WITH RAPID ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH.
Erica Downs. The Brookings Foreign Policy Studies, Energy Security Series, The Brookings Institution. Web posted December 26, 2006.
Full Text [pdf format 67 pages]

China has become the second largest consumer and third largest producer of primary energy. China’s energy consumption rose by 60% in the past five years. It can meet its energy needs with domestic supplies coal reserves and coal-based economy. It imports almost half of its oil needs.

“This monograph examines China’s approach to energy security. It focuses on oil because it is presently the only fuel that China imports in substantial quantities…” The key findings are as follows:

• The Energy Leading Group established in 2005 indicates that China’s leadership is dissatisfied with the present policymaking apparatus
• An imbalance between the use of administrative adjustments and market mechanisms in the energy sector will continue
• Demand moderation will be emphasized
• The relationship between the government and China’s national oil companies (NOCs) will continue to deteriorate—the NOCs will continue to see greater autonomy
• The relationship between foreign investments of China’s NOCs and the country’s energy security will continue to cause concern with many Chinese analysts
• Domestic energy security is linked to international energy security
• China’s oil interests will continue to shape its broader foreign policy

 

STRATEGY FOR TARGETING ORGANIZED PIRACY (STOP) REQUIRES CHANGES FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESS. General Accountability Office. Web posted December 8, 2006.
Full Text [pdf format, 57 pages]

The protection of intellectual property (IP) rights is crucial to preventing billions of dollars in losses from trade in counterfeit and pirated goods. The National Intellectual Property Law Enforcement Coordination Council (NIPLECC) was created by Congress in 1999 as an oversight body. The Strategy for Targeting Organized Piracy (STOP) is a comprehensive integrated national strategy to protect and enforce IP rights. STOP was initiated by the Bush Administration in 2004 and is led by the National Security Council.

The report states that these two entities have much overlap and their objectives are largely undefined. STOP is a good first step, but its potential is limited since it does not fully address the characteristics related to planning and accountability. It also lacks permanence beyond the current administration. NIPLECC, on the other hand, lacks a clear, effective strategy.

 

AA06307
Lugar, Richard G. THE NEW ENERGY REALISTS
(The National Interest, issue 83, Summer 2006, pp. 30-33)
View on publisher's website

Senator Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says today's energy realists are those who understand that without major changes in the way we get our energy, life in the U.S. will become increasingly difficult. In the coming decades, he explains, oil supplies will be stretched to the limit by economic growth in both the industrialized West and in large, rapidly growing economies. Geology and politics have created petro-superpowers that nearly monopolize the world's oil supply -- which make true "free market" price setting an impossibility, he adds. As economies increasingly compete for insufficient supplies of energy, writes the Senator, oil will become an even stronger magnet for corruption, conflict and military action than it already is. He recommends we should push alternative energy use, expand our energy partnerships abroad and understand that oil will remain an important energy source. Further, he notes, we must recognize that in an energy interdependent world, U.S. efforts to reduce its own petroleum use will not have maximum geopolitical impact if the oil we save is simply consumed by other countries. So, he concludes, the drive towards viable alternative energy sources needs to be a global effort.

 

AA06308
Lewis, Joanna LEADING THE RENEWABLE ENERGY REVOLUTION
(Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer/Fall 2006, pp. 147-154)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

The author, a senior international fellow at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service, points out that "China is a particularly important place in which to examine the opportunities for renewable energy development due to the size of its current energy demand and its projected renewable energy market potential." Already a global leader in solar thermal technology manufacturing and in the production of small hydro and wind turbines, China also has growing solar photovoltaic (PV) and utility-scale wind turbine industries. The world's largest producer and user of coal and the second largest national emitter of carbon dioxide, China is investing in the development of renewable energy options. The most advanced renewable electric technologies have historically come from Europe, the United States, and Japan, but these countries risk losing market share if emerging manufacturers can successfully produce comparatively lower cost technology. Other countries should be watching closely as China's renewable markets start to mature.

 

NUCLEAR ENERGY POLICY.
Mark Holt. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service (CRS). July 20, 2006.
Download [pdf format, 23 pages]

Nuclear energy policy issues facing Congress include the implementation of federal incentives for new commercial reactors, radioactive waste management policy, research and development priorities, power plant safety and regulation, and security against terrorist attacks.

These include the following:

1. Incentives: Significant incentives for new commercial reactors are included in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58), signed by the President on August 8, 2005. These include production tax credits, loan guarantees, insurance against regulatory delays, and extension of the Price-Anderson Act nuclear liability system.
2. Nuclear Waste: Disposal of highly radioactive waste has been one of the most controversial aspects of nuclear power. The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA, P.L. 97-425), as amended in 1987, requires DOE to conduct a detailed physical characterization of Yucca Mountain in Nevada as a permanent underground repository for high-level waste. The opening of the Yucca Mountain repository is now scheduled for 2017.
3. Research and Development: For Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear energy research and development, the Administration requested $632.7 million for FY2007, an 18.1 percent increase from the FY2006 appropriation. The request would boost funding for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) from $79.2 million in FY2006 to $243.0 million in FY2007. The higher AFCI funding would allow DOE to begin developing a demonstration plant for separating plutonium and uranium in spent nuclear fuel, as part of the Administration's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). The House-passed version of the FY2007 Energy and Water Development Appropriations Bill (H.R. 5427, H.Rept. 109-474) would cut the GNEP request in half and reduce the overall nuclear energy request to $572.8 million. But the Senate Appropriations Committee approved $36 million above the request for GNEP.
4. Security: The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States raised concern about nuclear power plant security. The new Energy Policy Act includes several reactor security provisions, including requirements to revise the security threats that nuclear plant guard forces must be able to defeat, regular force-on-force security exercises at nuclear power plants, and the fingerprinting of nuclear facility workers.

 

THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ANNUAL 2004.
United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). Web-posted August 1, 2006.
Full Report [Table of Contents, sections in html format, various pagings]

Overview [html format, 5 printed pages]

 

Country Energy Balances [Table of contents, files in html format, each country summary 1 printed page]

 

[Note: "[The Energy Information Administration] EIA attempts to identify and collect the best data available for foreign countries. The most authoritative sources are usually the official national statistical reports of a country. However, data from official sources are not always available. Therefore, EIA also uses data from reputable secondary sources such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, the Latin American Energy Organization, the United Nations, the World Bank, and others. In addition, EIA uses industry reports, academic studies, trade publications, and other sources. Typically these sources are less timely and complete than mandatory survey data for the United States collected by EIA. As a result, it usually takes EIA about two years to prepare complete energy information for all foreign countries."]

The International Energy Annual is the Energy Information Administration's primary report of international energy statistics. Included are data on energy consumption and production; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity, as well as carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, petroleum prices, energy reserves, and population; and data unit conversion tables. For many series, data cover the years 1980-2004. Also included is a World Energy Overview comparing 1994 and 2004.

 

AA06267
Gertner, Jon ATOMIC BALM? (New York Times Magazine, July 16, 2006, pp. 36//49)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

"For the first time in decades," the article begins, "increasing the role of nuclear power in the United States may be starting to make political, environmental and even economic sense." Today 103 reactors in the U.S. provide 20% of its electricity; some plants provide much higher percentages of electricity for their particular regions. No new plant has been approved for construction in the U.S. since 1978, the newest plant came online in 1996. It is unlikely that the plants will operate for much more than 60 years each. This presents a significant long-term problem for utility companies -- whether they should begin replacing the nuclear plants now, or whether coal will continue to be plentiful or cheap. Industry experts anticipate caps on carbon emissions that will significantly raise the cost of producing electricity from coal, and are skeptical about alternative fuels as major sources of electricity. Natural gas prices are high already. The author runs through the long list of pros and cons to building new nuclear power plants, including arguments that utilities, instead of increasing electricity, should be encouraging consumers to reduce their needs. Still, the author concludes that building new plants may indeed be reasonable. "The fact is," one nuclear expert is quoted as saying, "there is no perfect way of generating electricity. There are byproducts of every type."

 

RENEWABLE ENERGY: INCREASED GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON OVERCOMING MANY CHALLENGES.
United States Government Accountability Office. May 24, 2006; Web-posted
July 11, 2006. Download [pdf format, 53 pages]

Geothermal resources currently produce about 0.3 percent of America's total electricity and heating needs and supply heat and hot water to about 2,300 direct use businesses, such as district heating systems, fish farms, greenhouses, food-drying plants, spas, and resorts. The potential for additional direct use businesses is largely unknown because the lower temperature geothermal resources that they exploit are abundant and commercial applications are diverse. One study has identified at least 400 undeveloped wells and hot springs that have the potential for development.

This report describes:

1. The current extent of, and potential for, geothermal development.
2. Challenges faced by developers of geothermal resources.
3. Federal, state, and local government actions to address these challenges.
4. How provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 are likely to affect federal geothermal royalty disbursement and collections.

 

SITING CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: AN OVERVIEW OF NEEDS AND CHALLENGES.
National Commission on Energy Policy. June 2006.
Download [pdf format, 55 pages]

In the coming years, the United States will need to build new and improved infrastructure to ensure adequate and reliable supplies of energy and to achieve desired reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Other efforts will be made to diversify transportation fuels. Where to build new energy facilities is contentious -- the "Not In My Backyard (NIMBY)" phenomenon is well known to public and private entities when they attempt to site new energy facilities.

The debate over infrastructure siting suffers from oversimplifications and unexamined assumptions including:

• It has become impossible to site major energy facilities in the United States.
• Environmentalists will find ways to oppose just about everything.
• Energy companies want to build without regard to the burdens they impose on communities.

This report explores the infrastructure challenges that will affect ongoing efforts to improve upon and modernize the U.S. energy systems. It lays the groundwork for a series of forums on siting challenges sponsored by the National Commission on Energy and others later in 2006.

 

AA06246
Charman, Karen BRAVE NUCLEAR WORLD? (Worldwatch, Vol. 19, No. 4, July/August 2006, pp. 12-18)
View article on ProQuest (password required)

The author examines the technical feasibility of managing nuclear power. The article begins with a quick review of the ongoing health impacts of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and then spotlights the serious concerns of several experts on the current oversight practices of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in managing aging American nuclear power plants. New designs, such as the pressurized water reactor (PWR) and related configurations may not meet the safety claims of the manufacturers. Nuclear waste disposal is a problem without a ready solution, and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel is complex and expensive, leaving more waste to manage. The article concludes by stating that a significant increase in nuclear power production would not do enough to combat climate change and notes that increased investment in renewable energy is needed.

 

AGRICULTURE-BASED RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION. Randy Schnepf. Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service. May 18, 2006.
Download [pdf format, 44 pages]

Since the late 1970s, U.S. policy makers at both the federal and state levels have enacted a variety of incentives, regulations, and programs to encourage the production and use of agriculture-based renewable energy. Motivations cited for these legislative initiatives include energy security concerns, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and raising domestic demand for U.S.-produced farm products. Agricultural households and rural communities have responded to these government incentives and have expanded their production of renewable energy, primarily in the form of biofuels and wind power, every year since 1996.

The main points Schnep emphasizes in this report are:

• Agriculture has been rapidly developing its renewable energy production capacity (primarily as biofuels and wind). However, this growth has depended heavily on federal and state programs and incentives;
• Rising fossil fuel prices improve renewable energy's market competitiveness; however, significant improvement of existing technology or the development of new technology still is needed for current biofuel production strategies to be economically competitive with existing fossil fuels in the absence of government support; and
• A review of available data suggests that farm-based energy production is unlikely to be able to substantially reduce the nation's dependence on petroleum imports unless there is a significant decline in consumption. Also, other uses (food, animal feed, industrial processing, etc.) of biomass feedstocks are likely to be adversely impacted by rapid growth in use for bioenergy.

 

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006.
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. June 2006.
Full Report [pdf format, 202 pages]

Table of Contents [sections in both html and pdf formats, various pagings]

 

The International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030, according to the reference case projection. The IEO2006 shows the strongest energy consumption growth in developing countries outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), especially non-OECD Asia (including China and India), where robust economic growth drives the increase in energy use. Energy use in non-OECD Asia nearly triples over the projection period.

Projected reference case world oil prices are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last year's IEO, reflecting a more pessimistic view of the willingness of oil-rich countries to expand production capacity as aggressively as previously envisioned. The higher prices dampen expected growth in world oil demand, which is 8 million barrels per day lower in 2025 than in last year's reference case. As a result, oil's share of total energy use is projected to fall from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, whereas natural gas and coal both gain in their share of total energy. Petroleum consumption is still expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030. The United States, China, and India together account for 51 percent of the projected growth in world oil use.

Other highlights include:

• Higher fossil fuel prices and concerns about security of energy supplies are expected to improve prospects for nuclear power capacity over the projection period, and many countries are expected to build new nuclear power plants. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 361 gigawatts in 2003 to 438 gigawatts in 2030, with significant declines in capacity projected only for Europe, where several countries have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, or where old reactors are expected to be retired, and not replaced.
• In the IEO2006 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 25.0 billion metric tons in 2003 to 33.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030. Much of the projected increase in emissions is expected to occur in the non-OECD regions of the world, accompanying large increases in fossil fuel use. Non-OECD countries accounts for three-fourths of the projected growth in emissions between 2003 and 2030.

 

THE NUCLEAR DILEMMA AND LESSONS FROM CHERNOBYL. Anne Fitzpatrick. Federation of American Scientists (FAS). April 2006.
Download [pdf format, 17 pages]

As fossil fuel costs escalate and nuclear weapons materials proliferate across the globe, nuclear energy as an alternative to fossil fuels is once again the topic of international political and scientific discussions. Fuel reprocessing, new reactor designs, and talk of international control of atomic energy are the focus of political leaders and scientists. In this paper Fitzpatrick asserts that the lesson of Chernobyl are still urgently relevant to current global nuclear energy policy. She argues that the biggest lesson to take away from Chernobyl is that "our nuclear waste products are not going to just disappear whether we build more power reactors or phase out nuclear energy entirely. These highly radioactive by-products will need to go somewhere, and for a long time." She urges governments to tackle this issue directly, and now.
[Note: Contains copyrighted material]

 

AA06171
Lemley, Brad ANYTHING INTO OIL (Discover, Vol. 27, No. 4, April 2006, pp. 46-51)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Lemley detailed the thermal conversion process (formerly called the thermal depolymerization process) of using heat and pressure to convert waste materials into fuel oil and other recyclable materials in May 2003 (AA03196), and he provided an update on the challenges of starting full-scale processing in July 2004 (AA04202). Now he reports on the operation of the first commercial biorefinery in the world that can make oil from a variety of waste. This plant converts turkey slaughterhouse waste into fuel oil, high-grade fertilizer and water. Start-up delays, technical adjustments and higher operating costs have resulted in financial losses, but the owner of the plant expects it to begin operating at a profit because a federal government subsidy for renewable diesel fuel went into effect in early 2006. Future plans for the company include building plants in Europe to process beef slaughterhouse waste because it is expected that the process will destroy prions, the proteins that cause mad cow disease. The company has also demonstrated the process for automobile recyclers using their waste of plastics, fabrics, rubber and nylon that currently is dumped in landfills.

 

AA06145
Yergin, Daniel ENSURING ENERGY SECURITY (Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, no. 2, March 2006, pp. 69+)
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Energy expert Daniel Yergin says energy security will be one of the main challenges for U.S. foreign policy in the years ahead. The current tight oil market and growing demand require a fresh look at energy security issues, he notes. He highlights four traditional energy security principals: supply diversification to provide alternatives; resilience to ensure a buffer against shocks and disruptions; recognizing the reality of an integrated energy market; and quality information on all aspects of the energy industry. Yergin asserts that there are two more critical principals that need to be incorporated into energy security plans. First, the entire energy security system needs to be globalized, and engaging rising economies like China and India will be central to accomplishing this. Second, the entire energy supply chain and infrastructure needs to be protected. Global trade in energy will grow substantially, he emphasizes, as world markets become more integrated and demand continues to escalate. Assuring the security of global energy markets will require coordination on both an international and national basis between private sector and governments -- including all the agencies involved from environmental to intelligence.

 

AA06124 Economides, Michael J. THE COMING NATURAL GAS CARTEL (Foreign Policy, web exclusive, posted March 28, 2006)
View on publisher's web site

The author, editor-in-chief of the Energy Tribune, warns of the dangers of the formation of a cartel by the world's suppliers of natural gas, pointing out that natural gas is increasingly popular because it is the world's cleanest-burning fossil fuel. Historically the United States has relied on domestic sources, but increasing demand and the inevitable decline of domestic production will combine to force an increase in the importation of natural gas, in competition with other importing countries. The author mentions Russia's use of natural gas as a political weapon and expresses concern that other exporting countries, notably Iran, "already appear headed for confrontation with the United States and Europe." As an example, he cites Iran's role in the formation of the Gas Exporting Countries' Forum (GECF), a group of 15 gas-producing countries which controls 73 percent of the world's natural gas reserves and 41 percent of production.

 

THE HIGH COST OF CHEAP COAL (National Geographic, vol. 209, no. 3, March 2006, pp. 96-123)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Supplies of oil and natural gas are tight because of skyrocketing worldwide demand, and their cost is soaring. Coal, still in plentiful supply, is making a comeback, but this two-part series of articles notes that there will be a high environmental cost of returning to coal in a big way. In THE COAL PARADOX, Tim Appenzeller writes of the threat that large numbers of coal-fired power plants around the world pose to global climate, and the new "clean-coal" technologies that might reduce or eliminate the emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur and mercury from burning coal. In WHEN MOUNTAINS MOVE, John Mitchell describes the environmentally destructive "mountaintop-removal" method of coal mining that has been taking place in recent years in the Appalachian region of the eastern U.S.

 

AA06055B
Fischer, James; Finnell, Janine CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: WORKING TOWARD CLEAN, ABUNDANT, RELIABLE, AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY
(Resource, Vol. 13, No. 1, January/February 2006, pp. 9-10)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The authors say worldwide energy use could grow by more than fifty percent -- with U.S. energy use expected to increase by a third -- in the next two decades. Increased global demand presents challenges to find new ways to increase energy efficiency, decrease carbon dioxide emissions, and replace aging electric grids that are growing increasingly vulnerable to power outages, they write. Technological advances are creating opportunities to transform energy consumption and production through such things as fuel cells, renewable energies, new lighting options, and distributed power networks, they explain. Energy policies can help accelerate these technologies by encouraging research and development, providing market-based incentives and educating consumers, the authors note.

 

AA05361
Adams, Rebecca A HARD WINTER, A THIN PIPELINE (CQ Weekly, vol. 63, no. 39, October 10, 2005, pp. 2710-2717)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

CQ Weekly senior writer Adams warns that the U.S. faces a serious shortfall in natural gas supplies this winter; Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted much of the gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, which is the biggest domestic source of natural gas. Natural gas prices for home heating have doubled in the past year or so, and are expected to increase 50-70 percent in many parts of the country this winter. Adams notes that the hurricanes have only exacerbated a problem that has been neglected for years -- U.S. natural-gas production is plateauing or in decline, at the same time as U.S. demand for natural gas has grown tremendously.

Virtually all electric power plants built in recent decades are gas-fired, and the majority of new houses built in the U.S. today are heated with natural gas. In addition, natural gas is vital throughout the economy as an industrial fuel and as chemical feedstock for a wide variety of products. Adams writes that there are no good short-term policy options available. The U.S. will either have to use less, or import large amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG), but the infrastructure is not in place to bring in the quantities needed; constructing and bringing LNG import terminals online will take a minimum of 3-5 years. Some analysts are predicting an economic recession will come soon as a result of exploding energy costs.

 

THE GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS. [Baker Institute Study No. 29]
Rice University, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. April 2005.
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Natural gas is rapidly gaining in geopolitical importance. Gas has grown from a marginal fuel consumed in regionally disconnected markets to a fuel that is transported across great distances for consumption in many different economic sectors. Natural gas increasingly is the fuel of choice for users seeking its relatively low environmental impact, especially for electric power generation. As a result, world gas consumption is projected to more than double over the next three decades, surpassing coal as the world's number two energy source and potentially overtaking oil's share in many large industrialized economies.

This report provides an overview, with relevant country cases, of the following factors:

• An integrated global gas market will emerge in which events in any individual region or country will affect all regions.
• The role of governments in natural gas market development will change dramatically in the coming decades.
• The rising geopolitical importance of natural gas implies growing attention to supply security.
• The rapid shift to a global gas market is not a certainty. It depends enormously on creating the context in which investors will have confidence to deploy vast sums of financial and intellectual capital; it requires finding solutions to the adverse social and political consequences of developing natural resources in countries where governance is weak; and it assumes a continued pull from the growing world electricity sector.

 

AA05110
Hirsch, Robert; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert. PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT (National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005, 91 pp.)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

In this confidential report prepared for the Department of Energy, the authors warn that the imminent peaking and decline of world oil production presents the U.S. and the industrialized world with an unprecedented challenge, noting that even under optimal circumstances, a shift away from fossil fuels will be difficult, time-consuming and costly. They note that, although the future date at which energy-industry experts predict that oil peaking will occur varies, oil may become scarce and increasingly volatile in price well before the actual peak occurs. In this candid and sober assessment of the peak-oil threat, they believe that a massive mitigation program would need to be started by the government 10-20 years prior to the watershed moment of a peak, in order to avert a shortfall of liquid fuels and widespread economic hardship.

 

MEETING ENERGY DEMAND IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MANY CHALLENGES AND KEY QUESTIONS. TESTIMONY OF JIM WELLS BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND RESOURCES, COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. [GAO-05-414T]
United States Government Accountability Office (GAO). March 16, 2005.
Download the document [pdf format, 38 pages]

As a nation, the United States has witnessed profound growth in the use of energy over the past 50 years-nearly tripling energy use in that time. Although the United States accounts for only 5 percent of the world's population, it now consumes about 25 percent of the energy used each year worldwide. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that U.S. energy demand could increase by about another 30 percent over the next 20 years.

GAO believes that a fundamental reexamination of the nation's energy base and related policies is needed and that federal leadership will be important in this effort. To help frame such a reexamination, GAO offers three broad crosscutting observations.

• First, regarding demand, the amount of energy that needs to be supplied is not a matter of fate, but of choice. Consumers, whether businesses or individuals, choose to use energy because they want the services that energy provides, such as automated manufacturing and advanced computer technologies. Accordingly, consumers can play an important role in using energy wisely, if encouraged to adjust their usage in response to changes in prices or other factors.
• Second, all of the major fuel sources-traditional and renewable-face environmental, economic, or other constraints or trade-offs in meeting projected demand. Consequently, all energy sources will be important in meeting expected consumer demand in the next 20 years and beyond.
• Third, whatever federal policies are chosen, providing clear and consistent signals to energy markets, including consumers, suppliers, and the investment community, will help them succeed. Such signals help consumers to make reasoned choices about energy purchases and give energy suppliers and the investment community confidence that policies will be sustained, reducing investment risk.

 

AA05069
ENERGY: FUEL FOR THOUGHT (Harvard International Review, vol. 26, no. 4, Winter 2005)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Energy has become one of the most politicized issues of the 21st century. Demand for all forms of energy is soaring worldwide, and future political conflicts loom in the face of possible shortages of essential fuels such as oil and gas. This symposium of six articles is devoted to various aspects of the world's energy challenges. In FORCED TO FUEL, Muhammad Sahimi discusses Iran's nuclear energy program as Teheran's professed need to provide electrical power for a burgeoning population, and preserve its oil and gas resources for export. Miguel Tinker-Salas discusses the role of oil in Venezuela in FUELING CONCERN. In BUSINESS AS USUAL, Jean-Francois Seznec discusses the strains in the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Anthony Owen discusses the adverse effect on the environment of fossil fuel use and nuclear power, and the efforts by the industrialized nations of North America and Western Europe to adopt more sustainable technologies, in BURNING UP. Finally, in THE PERFECT STORM, Wilfrid Kohl notes that OPEC is set to regain its former dominance over the world oil market as global reserves dwindle, and the distribution network is pushed to the limit in the face of soaring global demand for oil.

 

NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS VISION.
North American Energy Working Group (NAEWG). February 25, 2005.
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[Note: The North American Energy Working Group (NAEWG) is a group of senior energy officials from Canada, Mexico and the United States who work together to foster communication and cooperation among the governments and energy sectors of the three North American countries on energy-related matters of common interest, and to enhance North American energy trade and interconnections, consistent with the goal of sustainable development, for the benefit of all; respecting the domestic policies, divisions of jurisdictional authority and existing trade obligations of each country.]

North America is one of the world's most important regions for energy-- producing about one-fourth of global energy supply and consuming about 30 percent of the world's commercial energy. National markets have grown over the years in both magnitude and complexity. Today, North America must concern itself with a range of energy issues, including energy resources, reserves, technologies, infrastructure, trade and investment/financing, laws, regulations, the environment, employment energy security, and other factors affecting the energy market.

This report contains three sections: a summary of key findings; a review of the sector from 1990 to 2003; and a forecast on market supply, demand, prices, and trade out to the year 2012. The report also includes comments on issues beyond 2012. It examines the increasingly important role of natural gas in the energy sectors of the three countries and will serve as an important reference document for governments, businesses and the general public.

The report is the culmination of two years' work by the NAEWG's Natural Gas Experts Group, which reviewed various measures North America can take to achieve its goals for natural gas.

 

AA05055
Walt, Vivienne. IRAN LOOKS EAST (Fortune, vol. 151, no. 4, February 21, 2005, pp. 88-95)
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Iran is signing a long-term natural gas deal with China worth USD 70 billion, and an oil deal worth possibly USD 100 billion more -- the biggest deal Iran has concluded in over a decade, and one which will provide Tehran with the greatest international security since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979. China is also undertaking major construction projects in the country, such as a subway system in Tehran, at cheaper bids than European companies could offer. Chinese development of Iran's oil fields will be a major boon in the face of U.S.-imposed sanctions that threaten penalties on companies that invest more than USD 20 million a year in Iran's oil industry. Iran's growing strategic relationship with China poses a dilemma for the Bush administration, which has been considering military action against Iran if they are found to be pursuing nuclear weapons. China, which has a seat on the U.N. Security Council, has said it will not support any U.S. proposal to attack Iran.

 

ENDING THE ENERGY STALEMATE: A BIPARTISAN STRATEGY TO MEET AMERICA’S ENERGY CHALLENGES.
National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP). December 2004.
Full Report [pdf format, 148 pages]

Summary of Recommendations [pdf format, 24 pages]

 

The National Commission on Energy Policy, prompted by 9/ 11, the California energy crisis, and rising global energy expenditures, was formed early in 2002 by independent foundations to address growing concerns about energy resources. Among the commission members are former EPA administrator William Reilly, United Steel Workers president Leo Gerard, Sharon Nelson of the Consumers Union, Ford Motor Company vice president Martin Zimmerman, former CIA chief James Woolsey, and Ralph Cavanaugh of the Natural Resources Defense Council. This report addresses the main aspects of a comprehensive national energy policy: steady supply of resources, national security, environmental impact, and diplomacy.

Among the numerous recommendations in the report are the following:

• Increase and diversify world oil production and expand global network of strategic petroleum reserves.
• Reform and significantly strengthen vehicle efficiency standards.
• Provide $3 billion over ten years in manufacturer and consumer incentives for domestic production and purchase of efficient hybrid-electric and advanced diesel vehicles.
• Establish a mandatory, economy-wide tradable-permits program to limit greenhouse gas emissions while capping initial costs at $7 per metric ton of CO2-equivalent reduction.
• Construct an Alaska natural gas pipeline.
• Increase clean-coal initiatives.
• Support efforts by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to address the need for better integration of intermittent renewable resources (such as wind and solar power) into the interstate grid system.

 

AA07156
Friedmann, Alice. PEAK SOIL: WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL, BIOFUELS ARE UNSUSTAINABLE AND A THREAT TO AMERICA.
(Culture Change, posted April 10, 2007)
Full text [html format]

In this extensively-referenced article, the author, a freelance journalist specializing in energy and a systems architect/engineer in California, points out that the current headlong rush into ethanol and biofuels in both the U.S.A. and around the world is unsustainable, and will take a heavy toll on the environment. All biofuels have a negative net energy return, and contribute to deforestation, water pollution, and topsoil depletion, due to continued extraction of plant material. In a special section on cellulosic ethanol, Friedemann enumerates the many daunting roadblocks to creating cellulosic fuels -- no organism or enzyme has yet been discovered that will handle widely varying plant feedstocks in impure environments, and the logistical challenges are immense. A 2000-dry-ton-per-day biorefinery would require “200 trucks per hour delivering biomass during harvest season ... and would need 90% of the no-till crop residues from the surrounding 7,000 square miles with half the farmers participating,” and would require a covered storage structure encompassing 100 acres with the bales stacked 25 feet high. She notes that the destruction of topsoil has never been considered in the biofuels boom, and laments that soil scientists have largely been left out of the debate. Friedemann concludes: “Responsible politicians need to tell Americans why their love affair with the car can’t continue. We are betting the farm on making cellulosic fuels work at a time when our energy and financial resources are diminishing. No matter how desperately we want to believe that human ingenuity will invent liquid or combustible fuels despite the laws of thermodynamics and how ecological systems actually work, the possibility of failure needs to be contemplated. There need to be plans for de-mechanization of the farm economy if liquid fuels aren’t found.”

 

AA07131
Staniford, Stuart. WATER IN THE GAS TANK
(The Oil Drum, March 26, 2007)
Full text [html format]

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, and has long been regarded as the “swing” producer, capable of increasing oil output to moderate prices. In recent months, OPEC has announced a series of oil production cuts, a large portion of which were absorbed by Saudi Arabia, ostensibly aimed at reducing oversupply on the market. However, a growing number of observers suspect that these cuts were not voluntary, and are a sign that Saudi oil production is on the verge of a steep and irreversible decline. The author, a researcher and computer security entrepreneur, is one of a group of independent professionals in the engineering and petroleum fields who have been conducting forensic analysis of the true state of Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves. For years, Saudi Arabia has been using water injection in its oil fields, to maintain underground reservoir pressure as the oil is extracted, in order to maintain high oil flow rates. In this article, citing from published Society of Petroleum Engineers technical papers, the author contends that the most productive regions of Ghawar -- Saudi Arabia’s, and the world’s, largest oil field -- are on the verge of “watering out”, that there is little oil, and mostly injected water, left.

 

AA07065
Carey, John; Carter, Adrienne; Shameen, Assif. FOOD VS. FUEL: AS ENERGY DEMANDS DEVOUR CROPS ONCE MEANT FOR SUSTENANCE, THE ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURE ARE BEING REWRITTEN
(Business Week, No. 4020, February 5, 2007, p. 80)
Full text

The authors report that nearly one-fifth of the U.S.’s 2006 corn crop went to ethanol production. If all the new ethanol factories planned actually go into operation, fuel will use no less than half of the entire U.S. corn harvest by 2008, they add. The increased demand for corn has already doubled corn prices, which has impacted the price of everything from livestock feed to tortillas, they say. More land will have to be turned over to crops in order to meet future goals for biofuels, they note, and this has its own environmental consequences. However, there is hope that improved technologies and better crops for biofuels will offset these issues. The biofuels market will also remain vulnerable to drops in fossil fuel prices, they caution.

See also Business Week's special report "Green Business"

which provides additional articles on this and related issues.

 

 

AA06396
A TANK OF GAS, A WORLD OF TROUBLE
Salopek, Paul. (Chicago Tribune, July 29, 2006)
Available online

What does it take to quench America’s mighty thirst for gasoline? In this four-part series, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Paul Salopek traces the gasoline pumped at a Marathon Oil filling station in South Elgin, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago, to some of the most remote and hostile regions of the globe. The oil industry has long claimed that it was not possible to trace gasoline at any particular station to particular oil-producing regions. However, oil companies maintain a little-known document, known as a “crude slate”, listing the types of oil they process, that can be linked to particular sources. By calculating the travel times through miles of Illinois pipelines, Salopek was able to identify the sources around the globe of gasoline sold at the South Elgin station on any given day. He worked as an unpaid clerk at the station, interviewing employees and customers, and traveled to the far-flung sources of the South Elgin Marathon station’s gasoline.

 

Archive

 

AA06289 Mandelbaum, Robb LIFE AFTER OIL
(Discover, Vol. 27, No. 8, August 2006, pp. 54-61)
View on publisher's site (free registration required)

Will ethanol (ethyl alcohol) replace gasoline as vehicle fuel in the United States? The author examines the development of the ethanol industry since the early 1970s and the prospects for reaching President Bush's goal of replacing "more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025." Refining plants produced four billion gallons of ethanol from corn in 2005, and additional plants are under construction. Research focuses on using other raw materials such as switchgrass, wood chips, and corn stalks, husks and cobs, and increasing the efficiency of refining processes. Improvements in distribution facilities will be necessary to reach more customers, also. Currently three percent of gasoline used in the United States is ethanol, some in blends up to 85 percent ethanol, but most as an additive to lower polluting emissions. Researchers say that ethanol could replace 30 percent of gasoline consumption in the U.S. within 25 years.

 

AA06287
Brown, Lester R. SUPERMARKETS AND SERVICE STATIONS NOW COMPETING FOR GRAIN
(Earth Policy Institute Eco-Economy Update, July 13, 2006)
View on publisher's website

The author, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, warns that most of the increase in world grain production this year will be consumed by the burgeoning ethanol and biofuels industry. In the state of Iowa, for example, fifty-five ethanol plants are either in operation or are being proposed -- if they all are built, they would claim the entire corn harvest of Iowa. Additionally, many countries are embarking on ethanol or biofuels programs. Brown notes that the fuel appetite of automobiles is "insatiable", and the growing demands of biofuels on grain production will directly impact food availability. He notes that global grain stocks are currently at their lowest levels since 1973, and warns that big price increases for food are on the horizon. He urges greater auto fuel efficiency standards, and advocates finding renewable-energy sources for powering vehicles.

 

AA06265
Rubin, Jeff; Buchanan, Peter OPEC'S GROWING CALL ON ITSELF
(CIBC World Markets Monthly Indicators, June 7, 2006, pp. 6-9)
Download and scroll to page 6 [pdf format, 12 pages]

The authors note that the domestic oil consumption of OPEC member countries is soaring, as it is in other major oil-exporting countries such as Russia and Mexico. This growing "call", or difference between production and consumption, along with OPEC's inability to increase production, may mean that OPEC's exports may drop by as much as three million barrels per day by the end of the decade. Rubin and Buchanan note that heavily-subsidized gasoline in most major exporting countries gives no reason for domestic consumers to conserve; additionally, the flood of petro-dollars has spurred rapid economic growth, which has caused oil demand to jump. They note that Mexico may no longer be an oil-exporting country by the end of the decade, due to growing domestic oil consumption and a fifteen-percent annual decline in production of its largest oil field.

 

"BOUTIQUE FUELS" AND REFORMULATED GASOLINE: HARMONIZATION OF FUEL STANDARDS.
Brent D. Yacobucci. Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service. Updated May 10, 2006.
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The current system of gasoline standards in the United States is complex. Because of federal and state programs to improve air quality, and local refining and marketing decisions, suppliers of gasoline face many different standards for fuel quality. As a result, fuels are formulated to meet varying standards. State and local decisions overlap with federal requirements, leading to situations where adjacent or nearby areas may have significantly different standards. These various fuel formulations are often referred to as "boutique fuels." In this system, supply disruptions can result if fuel from one area cannot be used to supply another area.

Because of potential supply concerns, there is interest in simplifying (harmonizing) the system so that regional or national standards are consistent. However, the competing goals of air quality, supply stability, and costs make harmonizing the system a complex process. Adding to these complications are concerns over methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), a common gasoline additive that has been detected in groundwater in numerous states. At least 25 states have passed legislation to ban or limit the use of MTBE, and new legislation will accelerate the elimination of MTBE in gasoline.

This report discusses how gasoline composition is regulated and explains the various federal and state gasoline standards. Next, the report presents some of the key issues with the federal reformulated gasoline (RFG) program. Some of the problems associated with boutique fuels are discussed, as well as some of the potential effects of harmonization. Finally, congressional actions in the 109th Congress related to boutique fuels, RFG, and harmonization are discussed.

 

CHINA'S GROWING DEMAND FOR OIL AND ITS IMPACT ON U.S. PETROLEUM MARKETS. Congress of the United States. Congressional Budget Office. April 2006.
Report [pdf format, 58 pages]

This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paper reviews major developments in China's demand for crude oil and refined petroleum products over the past decade and considers the implications of those changes for motor fuel prices in the United States through 2010. A key concern in this analysis is not whether China's demand for petroleum will continue to grow-as it undoubtedly will-but how fast it will grow over the next five years.

The report lays out two basic alternative scenarios regarding the petroleum demand growth in China. On the one hand, demand may be restrained by slower growth in the Chinese economy overall, high oil prices, an easing of some pressures that temporarily increased demand, and policies put in place by the Chinese government that may reduce petroleum consumption. On the other hand, demand may be accelerated by the reinforcing trends of growing urban populations and incomes and more vehicles and drivers with an expanding road system on which to travel. For each scenario the authors explore the implications for U.S. oil imports and possible changes to domestic U.S. oil production, including changes to policies affecting refineries.

 

AA06167
Maugeri, Leonardo TWO CHEERS FOR EXPENSIVE OIL (Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, no. 2, March 2006, pp. 149-163)
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Maugeri, economist and oil industry analyst, says the current "oil crisis" is driven by reduced availability of crude on the world market and the inadequacy of the oil industry's refining capacity. Years of low prices, inadequate investment in infrastructure, and producer's fears of surpluses created this situation, he explains -- and it has recently been exacerbated by an unexpected jump in the global consumption of crude. Despite all the doomsday predictions of oil shortages, he asserts the world still possesses immense oil resources. New technologies are already enabling greater exploitation of existing oil reserves, he says, and vast territories of oil-rich lands have never even been explored. Refining has been the weak link in the oil production chain for 20 years, he states, and since only 20 percent of crude oil falls into the light or low-sulfur categories, failure to develop refining capacity for lesser-grade crude produced shortfalls of the finished product. Ideally, says Maugeri, oil prices will stay high long enough to achieve necessary investment in exploration, production and refining capacity; to encourage greater development of alternative energy technologies; and to reduce irresponsible energy consumption.

 

AA06074
Zubrin, Robert. AN ENERGY REVOLUTION
(American Enterprise, Vol. 17, No. 2, March 2006, pp. 16-20)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Zubrin, President of aerospace engineering and research firm Pioneer Astronautics, says energy independence can be achieved today if Congress would mandate car manufacturers produce flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which use a mix of gasoline and methanol and/or ethanol. This would enable us to take the world off the petroleum standard, effectively defunding Middle Eastern terrorists, he says. Zubrin writes that the technology already exists -- the problem is the lack of availability of high-alcohol fuel mixes at the pump, discouraging potential buyers of FFVs, and filling-station owners can't justify dedicating a pump to a fuel few will use. Mandating FFV standards would eliminate this stalemate, and initiate major changes in the global automobile industry, as foreign car manufacturers started producing FFVs for the U.S. market. Zurbin says switching to an alcohol-based economy would have many advantages: the U.S. would become the world's largest fuel exporter; our trade deficit would be reversed; world economic power would shift to the West; conditions in developing countries would improve, as greater demand for agriculture would spur development; air pollution would be significantly reduced; and most importantly, we would achieve greater independence from the Middle East.

 

AA06060
Motavalli, Jim. THE OUTLOOK ON OIL
(E Magazine, Vol. 17, No. 1, January/February 2006, pp. 26-38)
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The author notes that the age of cheap oil is over; global demand is soaring, and oil producers are struggling to keep up. World demand for oil is likely to grow 50 percent by 2025, yet Motavalli notes that some experts believe that global oil production may reach a peak in the near future and begin to decline, due to depletion. A debate is raging on whether the world has already reached an "oil peak" and that development of new oil sources will not keep pace with world energy requirements. Some are concerned that Saudi Arabia has already "peaked", and that projections that rely heavily on future Saudi oil production are unrealistic. While there is still plenty of oil, much of the remaining reserves are in hard-to-reach reservoirs, or are difficult to refine. A number of books and websites have recently emerged to dissect peak oil scenarios. While the timing of the oil peak is still disputed, most analysts agree that too little oil is chasing too much demand and that U.S. dependence on cheap oil has dire consequences for every aspect of the U.S. economy. Finding the political will to address future energy challenges is not likely given the influence of the oil companies in Washington. The article contains four sidebars -- on the future of biodiesels (limited); the development of oil sands in Alberta, Canada; the role of energy conservation; and alternatives such as hydrogen, ethanol and electric vehicles.

 

AA05328
Kubarych, Roger HOW OIL SHOCKS EFFECT MARKETS (International Economy, Vol. 19, No. 3, Summer 2005, pp. 32-36)
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Kubarych, senior economic adviser with HVB America, Inc., reviews recent history of financial market responses to oil shocks and predicts an irregular uptrend in energy prices over the next decade. History suggests that after a tripling in price, market pressures tend to subside and prices slip back, he notes. However, he explains, several features in the current energy situation argue against this usual market correction: oil producers are operating at full capacity; Saudi Arabia has little incentive to relieve a tight supply; and huge leaps in energy demand from China and other Asian countries are altering the demand side of the equation. These factors, and fact that all the possible solutions have lengthy lead times, mean oil prices will likely rise to new peaks -- with inflationary consequences on financial markets, says Kubarych.

 

AA05289
Maass, Peter THE BREAKING POINT (New York Times Magazine, August 21, 2005, pp. 30//59)
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Global demand for oil has exploded in recent years, to the point where demand is on the verge of exceeding the ability of the world's petroleum-exporting nations to produce oil; the author writes that the consequences of a demand-driven shortfall would be enormous. Maass notes that the world is counting on Saudi Arabia as the swing producer of last resort; however, a growing number of people in the energy industry doubt that Saudi Arabia has any spare production capacity -- or if they do, they cannot maintain it for long without seriously affecting the condition of their oil fields. Complicating the global energy dilemma is the lack of solid information on the amount of oil that is actually left to be extracted. Among the people the author interviewed for the article are energy investment banker and prominent "peak oil" advocate Matthew Simmons, whose book TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT has brought worldwide attention to the current state of the Saudi oil fields; Sadad al-Husseini, a former ARAMCO executive who sees global oil shortages looming; and Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, who takes a more bullish view of the world energy outlook.

 

AA05140
OIL IN TROUBLED WATERS (Economist, Vol. 375, No. 8424, April 30, 2005, special insert)
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This survey of oil issues discusses some of the challenges facing the oil industry. The authors make a number of observations on changes in supply and demand and OPEC strategies that complicate oil price predictions. Big oil companies may lose out to national oil companies as the private-sector oil reserves continue to diminish. Competition, technology and innovation will continue to outpace the depletion of oil reserves. Many oil industry executives have stopped seeing hydrocarbons as the sole significant fuel source for the 21st century, indicating that we may be further along in developing alternatives to oil energy than many predict.

 

AA05142
Salameh, Mamdouh HOW REALISTIC ARE OPEC'S PROVEN OIL RESERVES? (Petroleum Review, August 2004, pp. 26-29)
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Dr. Salameh, an oil economist and World Bank consultant, notes that many energy experts have expressed doubts about the true extent of the petroleum reserves of OPEC member countries, which are stated to be 800 billion barrels, a figure that has remained largely unchanged, despite years of sustained oil extraction. In the late 1980s, the majority of OPEC producers abruptly increased their "official" proven reserve figures by substantial amounts, although few new discoveries had been made to justify the increase. The author and others suspect that this was in response to OPEC's adoption of a quota system that allowed its members to produce oil based on their respective reserves. Salameh believes that OPEC's actual reserves may be overstated by as much as 300 billion barrels, the equivalent of taking a major producer such as Saudi Arabia out of the picture. Additionally, major oil reservoirs such as Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field may be nearing the end of their useful life; Ghawar, discovered in the 1940s, has been producing 5 million barrels a day for decades, and the Saudis now have to inject 7 million barrels of seawater a day into it to maintain reservoir pressure in order to extract the remaining oil.

 

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Roberts, Paul OVER A BARREL (Mother Jones, Vol. 29, No. 6, November/December 2004, pp. 64-69)
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Petroleum experts are warning that oil will soon become too expensive and scarce to be dependable; the world oil markets are so tight that even a minor disturbance could send prices soaring. Yet, the author notes, the U.S. still relies on a decades-old energy policy that focuses on increasing supplies and does little to curb demand. High oil prices are beginning to bring more attention to alternative energy sources -- but Roberts notes that renewable energy accounts for only a tiny percentage of domestic U.S. energy production, and most alternative energy sources are "nowhere near ready for prime time." New automotive technologies such as hybrid cars are more fuel-efficient -- but will further postpone the time when alternative fuels such as hydrogen or biodiesel will displace their hydrocarbon rivals. While our current energy predicament may "unlock the political logjam" that has hampered development of alternative energy sources, Roberts writes that the U.S. has not mustered the political will for the massive public investment needed to switch to new sources of energy. He fears that we do not have enough time, and what the U.S. will do if it "finds itself in a real energy emergency."