Embassy of the United States

Government & Politics

Democracy & Civil Society Archive

EUROPE, THE UNITED STATES, AND MIDDLE EASTERN DEMOCRACY: REPAIRING THE BREACH. Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution. Tamara Wittes and Richard Youngs. January 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 34 pages]
Tensions between the United States and the European Union since the 2003 war in Iraq affected many arenas of Middle East policy, but perhaps none has come to encapsulate those tensions as much as the quest to advance democracy in the region. The study looks beyond the Iraq-related deterioration in the transatlantic relationship in order to assess the real similarities and differences in the two actors’ democracy promotion strategies in the Middle East.
[Note: contains copyrighted material]

THE PRESIDENT’S STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS: TRADITION, FUNCTION, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS. Congressional Research Service, R40132, Library of Congress. Colleen J. Shogan and Thomas H. Neale. Web posted January 29, 2009.
Full Text [PDF format, 16 pages]
The State of the Union (SOTU) address is a communication between the President and Congress in which the chief executive reports on the current conditions of the United States and provides policy proposals for the upcoming legislative year. In recent decades, the President has expanded his State of the Union audience, addressing the speech to both the nation and Members of Congress. Over time, the State of the Union address has evolved considerably. The format and delivery of the speech has changed, and its length has fluctuated widely. Technology has also influenced the delivery of the address, with the advent of radio, television, and the Internet playing significant roles in the transformation.

BUILDING AN AMERICANIZATION MOVEMENT FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE TASK FORCE ON NEW AMERICANS. Task Force on New Americans, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. December 18, 2008.
Full Text [PDF format, 80 pages]
After more than two years of collaboration and initiatives among 20 federal agencies and a variety of stakeholders, the Task Force on New Americans delivers a report, calling for the strengthening of immigrant integration efforts across the United States. The report reaffirms two fundamental ideals about the nature and success of integration in the United States. First, Americans are united by an identity that respects diversity, but one that is defined by the principles of American democracy, our shared history, and the English language. Second, successful citizenship promotion encompasses not only naturalization, but also assimilation.

REBOOTING AMERICA: IDEAS FOR REDESIGNING AMERICAN DEMOCRACY FOR THE INTERNET AGE. Personal Democracy Forum. November 2008.
Full Text: [PDF format, 256 pages]
According to the Forum, voting is our most visible political activity; it’s easy to see and measure, but it’s only a small part of the spectrum of political activities that form the backbone of our democracy. Social media and broad, enthusiastic participation together can profoundly affect governance and policy development, who runs for office and how, the communications between elected officials and citizens beyond elections, and the loosening of the death grip of moneyed, interests on politics and policies. The essays range from revisiting the need for checks and balances within government and between the government and its citizenry, to a radical reinterpretation of the public’s “right to know,” to the exponential power of many-to-many deliberation to shape public policy. The Forum hopes to provide ideas to the presidential transition.
[Note: contains copyrighted material]

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Hassner, Pierre RUSSIA’S TRANSITION TO AUTOCRACY (Journal of Democracy, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 2008)
Full text [PDF format, 12 pages]
In his 2007 Seymour Lipset Lecture on Democracy in the World, Hasner raises grave concerns about anti-democratic trends in the government introduced by Vladimir Putin. He calls Putin’s authoritarianism “harsh” with “some fascist features,” drawing on both czarist and Soviet history. Putin deceptively maintains appearances of democracy “while progressively emptying democratic institutions of their content,” he says, citing the attacks on free media, public debate, and human rights. Hessner says it is a “virtual democracy” in which Putin appointed a “virtual president” while still remaining power himself, head of a “virtual empire” which is part pretense and part aspiration to be a major world power. He traces Putin’s increased belligerence toward the West to the Russian desire to be on an equal footing with the European Union and the U.S., and resentment at perceived encroachment on former Soviet territories. He is pessimistic about the prospects of democracy in the short term, but lauds the “uphill struggle” of courageous people like the late Anna Politkovskaya, who strive to pursue the truth at great personal risk.

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Kagan, Robert HISTORY’S BACK (Weekly Standard, Vol. 13, no. 46, August 25, 2008, pp. 18-23)
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In an analysis of Russia’s return to an authoritarian system of governance, Kagan notes that “the core assumptions of the post-Cold War years have proved mistaken.” While the West assumed that more open markets and capitalistic economic activity in Russia and China would lead to greater political freedoms, “the autocracies of Russia and China have figured out how to permit open economic activity while suppressing political activity.” Kagan sees a period of growing tensions ahead, but he does not believe that the West and the U.S. are in a poor position to respond. Despite the damage the war in Iraq has done to U.S. popularity in the world, Kagan sees the traditional allies “pursuing policies that reflect more concern about the powerful autocratic states in their midst than about the United States.” He writes that “the future is up for grabs” and the U.S. and other democratic nations must rise to the challenge of “keeping the hopes for democracy alive in Russia and China.”

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Hibbing, John R.; Larimer, Christopher W. THE AMERICAN PUBLIC'S VIEW OF CONGRESS (The Forum, vol. 6, no. 3, July 2008)
Available on request
Hibbing, with the University of Nebraska/Lincoln, and Larimer, at the University of Northern Iowa, assert that Congress has long been unpopular with the American public, with approval numbers above fifty percent serving as the exception rather than the norm. In this essay they argue that such disapproval stems not from calculated reaction to policy outcomes or partisan attachments. Rather, people tend to disapprove of Congress for exactly the thing it was designed to be: an open and deliberative lawmaking body. The more Congress does its job, the more the public tends to disapprove.

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Kapstein, Ethan; Converse, Nathan WHY DEMOCRACIES FAIL: POVERTY, INEQUALITY, AND DEMOCRACY (Journal of Democracy, vol. 19, no. 4, October 2008, pp. 57-68)
Available on request
The authors study data from waves of democratization between 1960 and 2004, concluding that certain conditions during the initial phases seem to predict whether the democracy will thrive or fail. Based on the data, Kapstein and Converse recommend that democratic assistance be given to ensure a free press, a tolerant and diverse educational system and an open civil society with a strong private economy. They write that poverty alone doesn't not predict failure, but the level of economic inequality does -- "those left by the wayside may lose confidence in democracy." Finally, the authors state that the international community should encourage trade, international cultural and educational exchanges, and participation in regional and international organizations that can help "lock in" the political and economic reform process.

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Chu, Yun-han et al. PUBLIC OPINION AND DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY (Journal of Democracy, vol. 19, no. 2, April 2008, pp. 74-87)
Full Text [pdf format, 15 pages]

A team of academics created the Globalbarometer, a tool for measuring public opinion in 54 countries, gauging citizen support for democracy. Some of the findings were counterintuitive -- support for democracy was not tied to economic prosperity. Even in newly democratic countries where economic growth was poor, the idea that democracy was a better form of government was held by a majority of the population. There were regional differences, for wealthier East Asian countries economic performance is an important ingredient for popular support of democracy. In Latin America, democracy was perceived as a preferred state of government but doubts were cast on how well governments delivered on political promises. The global survey concluded that democratization was not a foregone conclusion, citizens of most new democracies expect free and fair elections, an impartial court system and minority protections. If the governments fail to provide these political goods, citizen's support for democracy will decrease.

CYCLONE NARGIS AND BURMA’S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM.
Congressional Research Service, RL34481, Library of Congress. Michael F. Martin and Rhoda Margesson. May 9, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 23 pages]

Cyclone Nargis struck the coast of Burma, leaving at least 22,000 dead, 41,000 more missing, and extensive damage to the nation’s premier agricultural areas. Vital infrastructure was destroyed by the storm, severely limiting the ability to assess the loss of life and provide assistance to the survivors. Burma’s ruling military junta showed its reluctance to allow international relief workers into the country. Some experts are speculating that Cyclone Nargis may precipitate major political change in Burma, including the destabilization of Burma’s military regime. Local dissatisfaction with the speed and quality of the junta’s provision of emergency assistance may heighten domestic opposition to the junta and its proposed constitution. Furthermore, rising food prices and food shortages may feed popular discontent, much like fuel price increases led to protests in Burma of September 2007.

A NEW COURSE FOR PAKISTAN.
Center for Strategic & International Studies. Frederick Barton et al. May 14, 2008. [Note: contains copyrighted material]
Full Text [pdf format, 9 pages]

During a two week research trip to Pakistan in mid-April 2008, more than 200 Pakistanis and several dozen expatriates in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar, Attock, Quetta and Karachi were interviewed. The research team met with the newly elected leadership, former generals, journalists, economists, nationalist leaders, trade unionists, diplomats, university professors, bloggers, ulema, aid workers, security analysts, leaders of the lawyers’ movement, and students at an elementary school, a madrassa, an Afghan refugee primary school, and a university. The focus was on the major issues affecting the country. The research examined ways in which the United States can be most supportive of Pakistani-led initiatives during this critical transition period.

INSTITUTIONS AND BEHAVIOR: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF DEMOCRACY.
National Bureau of Economic Research. Pedro Dal Bo et al. May 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 50 pages]

An experiment is used to show that the effect of a policy on the level of cooperation is greater when it is chosen democratically by the subjects than when it is imposed. In contrast to the previous literature, this experimental design allows to control for selection effects (e.g. those who choose the policy may be affected differently by it). The finding of the study implies that democratic institutions may affect behavior directly in addition to having effects through the choice of policies.

[Note: contains copyrighted material]

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Goldsmith, Arthur A. MUSLIM EXCEPTIONALISM? MEASURING THE “DEMOCRACY GAP” (Middle East Policy, vol. 14, no. 3, Fall 2007, pp. 86-96)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Democratization of the Muslim Middle East is a foreign policy goal of the Bush administration; democracy is lacking in many Islamic countries, though the root cause is unclear. The author, professor at the University of Massachusetts, uses a couple of measures, including the Freedom House Index, to refute claims that democracy and Islam are irreconcilable. Dr. Goldsmith concludes that every country is unique and generalizations about a particular society and its incompatibility with democracy should never be made.

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Schmidt, John R. CAN OUTSIDERS BRING DEMOCRACY TO POST-CONFLICT STATES? (Orbis, vol. 52, no. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 107-122)
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Schmidt, the founding Deputy Coordinator for Security and Governance at the U.S. Department of State, argues most interventions by outside forces to promote democracy in post-conflict states since World War II have failed. The most successful were in societies such as Germany and Japan, featuring relatively high per-capita GNP and diversified economies; prospects for democracy tend to diminish as per-capita GNP decreases. The effects of conflict make democracy promotion considerably more difficult, particularly when poorer societies are plagued by weak institutions, corruption, religious extremism and ethnic or religious animosities. He states that even if outsiders are able to control violence and actively promote democracy, success will depend on the underlying political culture and willingness of key political actors to play by democratic rules once the outsiders have gone. Schmidt ponders that outsiders need to develop the best possible understanding of their prospects for success before committing to intervention.

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Schamis, Hector E. ARGENTINA'S TROUBLED TRANSITION (Current History, vol. 107, no. 706, February 2008, pp. 71-77)
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The author, professor at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, DC, writes that the transition in 2007 from one elected president to another is a sign that Argentina has largely recovered from the economic and political crises of 2001-2002. However, many of the problems of democratic governance in Argentina still persist, as the country has a “deeply rooted tendency to concentrate inordinate power in the executive branch,” a legacy of the administration of Carlos Menem in the 1990s. The stability of Argentina’s democratic system is largely dependent on the health of the economy. Schamis believes that the primary challenge for Argentina is to make their political parties and legislature independent of presidential power, so that the country’s political system is not at the mercy of the economic cycle.

FREEDOM HOUSE URGES DIALOGUE, REFORM IN CAMEROON.
Freedom House press release and country reports. March 5, 2008.
Full Text [direct link with additional links to Cameroon country reports]

Recent violence claimed at least 20 lives in Cameroon’s worse unrest in over 15 years. Protests and riots focused on increased fuel and food prices. Tensions have run high since December when President Paul Biya, who has been in office for 25 years, suggested that he might alter the constitution to enable himself to seek another presidential term.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

RUSSIA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION.
Congressional Research Service, RL34392, Library of Congress. Stuart D. Goldman. Web posted February 29, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 11 pages]

The Russian Constitution limits the president to no more than two consecutive four-year terms. President Putin’s second term ends in March 2008. Uncertainty about the post-Putin succession dominated and roiled Russian politics for most of 2007, until late in the year, when Putin made clear that he would relinquish the presidency and take the position of prime minister after his protégé, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, was elected president.

UKRAINE: A NET ASSESSMENT OF 16 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE.
Center for Strategic and International Studies. Janusz Bugajski, et. al. Web posted February 27, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 43 pages]

This report, commissioned by the U.S.-EU Partnership Committee for Ukraine, provides a net assessment of Ukraine's achievements and shortcomings over the last 16 years. The report examines developments in the areas of governance, economics, energy, the military, and international relations. And it offers a series of priority recommendations for Ukraine—as well as for the European Union and the United States—in order to continue progress in those areas.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

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Wood, Steve ENERGY AND DEMOCRACY: THE EUROPEAN UNION'S CHALLENGE (Current History, vol. 107, no. 707, March 2008, pp. 133-138)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, a research fellow at the School of Political and International Studies at Flinders University in Adelaide, Australia, writes that the European Union’s dependence upon imported energy supplies is compromising a central feature of the EU’s image, that of a committed promoter of democratization and civic freedoms. As with the U.S., many of the EU’s energy suppliers are countries with autocratic regimes and poor human-rights records, with the state having a controlling interest in the resources and using it for geopolitical ends. The EU’s growing energy dependence means that its suppliers have little incentive to carry out democratic reforms. Wood notes that Russia is central in the EU’s quandary, as several of the former Soviet republics that the EU is trying to influence are themselves dependent on Russian energy supplies. The author asserts that the EU can do little to oblige undemocratic energy producers to change without the backing of the U.N. and the U.S.

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Basora, Adrian MUST DEMOCRACY CONTINUE TO RETREAT IN POSTCOMMUNIST EUROPE AND EURASIA? (Orbis, vol. 52, no. 1, Winter 2008, pp. p3-24)
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Basora, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, argues that democratic progress is still achievable in many former communist countries, and that a look at recent history provides important perspectives towards that goal. Yet, both the region's reform leaders and Western policy makers must also take full account of the new “post-postcommunist” paradigm, characterized by Russia's negative and increasing influence, the European Union's “expansion fatigue,” the waning of U.S. democracy-promotion efforts and credibility, and some degree of democratic disillusionment. Basora notes that in late 2004, Ukraine's Orange Revolution appeared to herald a second wave of democratic transformation destined to sweep through much of postcommunist Europe and Eurasia. Now, only three years later, this wave has dissipated. Some analysts see democracy as being in retreat and they view the lessons of 1989-2004 as no longer applicable. Basora hypothesizes that through re-invigorated and more united efforts, the impressive post-1989 gains in democratization can be consolidated and new momentum built towards the goal of “a Europe whole and free.”

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Bunce, Valerie THE TASKS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND TRANSFERABILITY (Orbis, vol. 52, no. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 25-41)
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Bunce, professor of international studies at Cornell University, asserts that there is no single road to democracy. Nevertheless, there are some factors that seem to have consistently positive effects on democratic development, including the existence of a large and diverse civil society as well as a sharp political break with the authoritarian past. Subsequently, these are followed by issues such as regular turnovers in political leadership as well as governing parties and stable state borders. Bunce asserts that a successful democratic transition must also include political institutions which empower parliaments and, in culturally diverse societies, give minorities’ political voice without locking them into permanent coalitions. The less significant issues include economic considerations. Nevertheless, Bunce advocates that these reforms are far more likely in democratic settings than in authoritarian regimes and far more supportive for robust economic performance.

PAKISTANI PUBLIC OPINION ON DEMOCRACY, ISLAMIST MILITANCY, AND RELATIONS WITH THE US: A JOINT STUDY.
C. Christine Fair, Clay Ramsay, and Steven Kull. WorldPublicOpinion.org, Program on International Policy Attitudes, and U.S. Institute of Peace. January 7, 2008.
Full Text [pdf format, 28 pages]

“Over the past year, Pakistan has endured a series of traumatic events that have brought increasing stress to its people and its political classes, as well as to American policymakers and the international community.” From an American perspective, it is important to know how Pakistanis view the role of Islam in society, how they view democracy, and how they view military action against Islamist militant groups.

A survey was conducted from September 12-18, of 907 Pakistani urban adults in 19 cities across Pakistan. This report presents the results of the survey.

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, AND GEORGIA: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. INTERESTS.
Jim Nichol. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. Updated December 19, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 33 pages]

The U.S. recognized Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia at the end of 1991; and has fostered these states in trade, security and other relations to end their dependence on Russia. The FREEDOM Support Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-511) authorized assistance for humanitarian needs, democratization, creation of market economies, trade and investment, and other purposes.

This report focuses on key issues and concerns for the 110th Congress regarding the South Caucasus states.

DEMOCRACY PROMOTION: CORNERSTONE OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY.
Susan B. Epstein, Nina M. Serafino, and Francis T. Miko. Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress. December 26, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 36 pages]

Both the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government support democracy promotion in other countries, and they have implemented bilateral and multilateral programs to promote it. Congress appropriates funds and authorizes programs. Congress also has oversight responsibility and attempts to determine when, where, and how these programs operate, and if the desired results are achieved. The 110th Congress may scrutinize these democracy promotion activities in Iraq more closely, which could affect democracy promotion elsewhere.

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Thornton, John L. LONG TIME COMING: THE PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY IN CHINA (Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 1, January-February 2008)
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The Chinese view of democracy differs from the Western view, but many Chinese want more democracy and believe it is coming, according to the author, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing and chairman of the board of the Brookings Institution. Elections have been held in rural Chinese villages already for 20 years. Elections of pre-selected candidates have been held in a few townships and counties, the next administrative levels up. Perhaps more importantly, the Chinese Communist Party is putting forward multiple candidates for certain party positions; some observers imagine party factions could emerge in such a scheme that would make the party resemble Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic party, where policy differences are part of the legitimate process. The Chinese are also taking steps to make their judicial system and administrative system less corrupt, more open to challenge, and rooted in rule of law. "Optimists believe that gradualism will make the current liberalization last longer than the euphoric, but ultimately failed, experiences of the past," Thornton said.

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Thornton, John L. LONG TIME COMING: THE PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY IN CHINA (Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 1, January-February 2008)
Full Text [html format]

The Chinese view of democracy differs from the Western view, but many Chinese want more democracy and believe it is coming, according to the author, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing and chairman of the board of the Brookings Institution. Elections have been held in rural Chinese villages already for 20 years. Elections of pre-selected candidates have been held in a few townships and counties, the next administrative levels up. Perhaps more importantly, the Chinese Communist Party is putting forward multiple candidates for certain party positions; some observers imagine party factions could emerge in such a scheme that would make the party resemble Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic party, where policy differences are part of the legitimate process. The Chinese are also taking steps to make their judicial system and administrative system less corrupt, more open to challenge, and rooted in rule of law. "Optimists believe that gradualism will make the current liberalization last longer than the euphoric, but ultimately failed, experiences of the past," Thornton said.

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Gardels, Nathan CHINA: FROM DEMOCRACY WALL TO THE SHOPPING MALL AND BACK (New Perspectives Quarterly, vol. 24, no. 4, Fall 2007, pp. 2-5)
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The wrath of the American consumer over tainted pet food and toys may prove to be more effective than anything tried so far in pushing China's leadership to institute reforms, says Nathan Gardels, editor of New Perspectives Quarterly. "Unlike organized labor or human rights groups," Gardels writes, "consumers don't have to mobilize to effect change; they only have to demobilize by not spending." China's export reliance on the U.S. market will force it to curb corruption and strengthen regulation through rule of law. "Americans won't hesitate one moment to cut the import lifeline and shift their allegiance from Chinese products that might poison their children or kill their pets," he predicts, "and their bargaining agents -- Wal-Mart, Target, Toys R Us -- have immensely more clout than the AFL-CIO and Amnesty International ever had in fostering reform in China ... Of course, a move toward the reliable rule of law is not democracy," he says," "but a big step on the long march in that direction." One of a series of articles in this issue of NPQ devoted to China.

OUTSIDERS? THE CHANGING PATTERNS OF EXCLUSION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: 2008 REPORT.
Gustavo Márquez, Alberto Chong, Suzanne Duryea, Jacqueline Mazza, and Hugo Ñopo. Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). October 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 302 pages]

[Note: Contains copyrighted material.]

This report reveals the changing patterns of social inclusion and exclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean. It shows that attaining social inclusion "demands not only redressing past injustices," but also change "the way decisions are made, resources are allocated, and policies are implemented." The authors assert that promoting social inclusion requires well coordinated and carefully considered actions on the part of governments and civil societies to advance the rights of the excluded.

ENGAGING ISLAMISTS AND PROMOTING DEMOCRACY: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT. Mona Yacoubian. Special Report, U.S. Institute of Peace. August 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 16 pages]

This report examines the experiences of democracy promoters at the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI). The report is based on extensive interviews with staff members who have been working in three countries: Morocco, Jordan, and Yemen. The author found that (1) parliamentary elections have led to Islamist victories; (2) U.S. engagement has been most successful where democratic reform is underway; (3) Islamist engagement empowers individuals and strengthens institutions; and (4) “U.S. engagement of moderate Islamists must be understood within the broader political context . . .”

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Mandelbaum, Michael DEMOCRACY WITHOUT AMERICA: THE SPONTANEOUS SPREAD OF FREEDOM (Foreign Affairs, vol. 86, no. 5, September-October 2007, pp. 119-130)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes that the Bush administration has made democracy promotion a central aim of U.S. foreign policy. However, in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other parts of the Arab world where the prospects for democracy once seemed promising (Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt), American efforts have not succeeded. In fact, democracy is not even close to being securely established in any of these places. The key to establishing a working democracy has been the free-market economy which generates organizations and groups independent of the government: businesses, trade unions, professional associations, clubs, known collectively as civil society, are indispensable to a democratic political system. Arab countries are also unlikely candidates for democracy because their populations are often sharply divided along tribal, ethnic, or religious lines while in Russia, the prospects for democracy within the next two to three decades are brighter despite the present situation of a government does not respect liberty and was not chosen through free and fair elections. However, democracy's prospects matter most in China, the world's most populous country with one of the fastest-growing economies.

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Pascual, Carlos; Pollack, Kenneth THE CRITICAL BATTLES: POLITICAL RECONCILIATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ (Washington Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 3, Summer 2007, pp. 7-19)
Full text [pdf format, 13 pages]

Pascual, vice president and director for the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and former coordinator for reconstruction and stabilization at the Department of State, and Pollack, director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, present their ideas for addressing the situation in Iraq, which they describe as a “monumental task.” They believe it is vital that Iraq be recognized as a failed state and that Iran, Syria, Turkey, and neighboring Sunni states be involved. The best case would be for the surge to provide enough security to begin rebuilding Iraq’s political, economic, and social institutions and thus make way for the compromises necessary for a political settlement. The authors also emphasize the need to take into account lessons learned about peacemaking and peacekeeping: 1) civil wars require political solutions, 2) the situation must be “ripe” for solutions, 3) a truce can buy time to build trust and allow for the possibility of finding a longer-term solution, 4) a solid security environment is necessary, 5) external forces and economic support will be needed for 8-10 years after a political settlement, and 6) the effort must be multilateral, preferably under a United Nations mandate.

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Katz, Mark N. NON-DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS AT STATE BREAKUP: IS THERE A CONNECTION? (World Affairs, vol. 169, no. 3, Winter 2007, pp. 111-117)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Katz, professor of government and politics at George Mason University, compares the experiences of Russia, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, and Iraq, and concludes that revolutions can prove to be a serious obstacle to democratization in states with regionally dominant minorities. In each case, revolutionary movements that initially claimed democratic aspirations evolved into authoritarian regimes, alienating ethnic and religious communities and prompting repressive measures. When political and economic conditions eventually force democratic reforms, these long-held resentments seem to metastasize into nationalist movements pursuing independence rather than trusting the regime’s second promise of democratization. While the author dwells on the regions of Chechnya, Kosovo, Aceh, Papua, and Kurdistan, he also argues that the revolution-state breakup correlation may also have possible implications for the futures of China, Iran, and Sudan as well.

TROUBLING SIGNS FOR SOUTH AFRICAN DEMOCRACY UNDER THE ANC. Marian L. Tupy. Development Policy Briefing Paper, Center for Global Liberty & Prosperity, CATO Institute. April 25, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 12 pages]

“Thirteen years ago, South Arica underwent a peaceful transition from white minority rule to majority rule. Today, the country is a stable multiparty democracy. It has the largest and the most sophisticated economy in Africa, which generates almost 40 percent of all the wealth produced on the African continent south of the Sahara.” 

The African National Congress (ANC) deserves most of the credit for the economy, but the author fears that its record for democratic principles is less impressive. The ANC puts great value on its international reputation. When it does not act in a liberal, democratic spirit; international groups, diplomatic corps, and business communities should voice their concerns.

UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL CORRUPTION IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES.
Rohini Pande. Faculty Research Working Papers Series, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. April 15, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 46 pages]

“Building on the large and growing empirical literature on the political behavior of individuals in low income countries,” the author looked at corruption from a political economy view point; i.e., the political and economic differences between rich and poor countries. This paper focused on the “political behavior of individuals exposed to democratic political institutions and its implications for corruption.” It also assessed the implications “of corruption for anti-corruption policies.”

TOWARD A REFORM AGENDA FOR THE NIGER DELTA: A REPORT OF THE AFRICA PROGRAM.
Jennifer Cooke and J. Stephen Morrison. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Web posted April 19, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 13 pages]

On March 14, the CSIS Africa Program held a conference concerning the Niger Delta. The sponsoring institutions of this conference were CSIS, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Institute of Peace, Johns Hopkins SAIS, and Northwestern University. The purpose of the conference was “to elevate the focus on Nigeria in the lead-up to and immediately beyond Nigeria’s April elections.” The participants concluded that the injustices and dangers of the Niger Delta have long been neglected; as a result, they examined how to build consensus around reform prospects to address criminal violence, corruption, and poverty in the Delta.

THE AFTERMATH OF CIVIL WAR.
Siyan Chen, Norman V. Loayza, and Marta Reynal-Querol. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank. Web posted April 9, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 29 pages]

“Using an “event-study” methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003.” The authors used several factors such as economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues to develop a comprehensive evaluation. The authors determined that recovery and improvements can be achieved if war establishes lasting peace.

KENYA’S FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION: AN UNEVEN PATH TO POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY.
John Githongo. Development Policy Briefing Paper, Center for Global Liberty & Prosperity, CATO Institute. March 15, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 8 pages]

The 2002 democratic elections in Kenya were heralded as a period of intense political and economic reforms. Initially a number of important reforms were undertaken. According to the author, the reform process ran into trouble and factional strife reemerged, and grand-scale corruption eventually ended the reform process. However, there are hopeful signs in Kenya and other parts of Africa. The “younger generation treats Kenya’s politicians with growing skepticism, and civil society and the media are increasingly active in exposing corruption and misrule there.” This paper provides an overview and history and of these reforms.

INSURGENCY AND CREDIBLE COMMITMENT IN AUTOCRACIES AND DEMOCRACIES.
Philip Keefer. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank. April 1, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 29 pages]

“This paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely; the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions.”

UN DEMOCRACY FUND: A FIRST YEAR ANALYSIS. Freedom House. Web posted January 22, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 22 pages]

The UN Democracy Fund (UNDEF) was established in July 2005. The UNDEF is an outcome of the Community of Democracies, and its purpose is to assistance in strengthening democracy. The first annual report analyzes UNDEF’s grant recipients, examines the types of organizations that received grants, the countries or regions of grant beneficiaries, and the types of projects funded.

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Berman, Sheri. LESSONS FROM EUROPE
(Journal of Democracy, vol. 18, no. 1, January 2007, pp. 28-41)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author, associate professor of political science in Barnard College, Columbia University, believes that during the 1950s and 1960s, the debate over democracy as the best form of modern political governance, was dominated by the preconditionists, who stressed the importance of various national prerequisites and deep structural factors such as levels of socioeconomic development, degrees of socioeconomic equality and group polarization, patterns of land ownership or agricultural production, or the prevalence of certain beliefs or cultural traits. In contrast, universalists contended that democracy could emerge through diverse paths and flourish in diverse circumstances. The "third wave" of global democratization that began in 1974 gave a strong push to the universalist view, as the shift from authoritarian to democratic rule was made in dozens of countries -- including many that preconditionists would not have considered ripe for such a move. As a result, scholarship began to focus less on the structures supposedly associated with successful democracy and more on the process of democratic transitions. However, the best way to understand how stable, well-functioning democracies develop is to analyze the political backstories of most democracies, which include struggle, conflict, and even violence. Understanding past cases is a crucial step toward putting today's democratization and democracy promotion discussions into the proper intellectual and historical context.

REQUIEM FOR PALESTINIAN REFORM: CLEAR LESSONS FROM A TROUBLED RECORD.
Nathan J. Brown. Carnegie Paper, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Web posted February 21, 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 24 pages]

This paper examines the democratic reforms in Palestine from 2002 to 2006, and provides an assessment for reform by the international community since Hamas’ election in 2006. The author argues that democratic reform should be a long-term objective and should not have been abandoned by the international community after the 2006 election. This “abandonment of the reform movement following Hamas’ victory subjected Palestinian reformers to withering domestic criticism and promoted cynicism among many Palestinians.”

ROOTS OF RADICAL ISLAM IN CENTRAL ASIA.
Martha Brill Olcott. Carnegie Paper No. 77, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. January 2007.
Full Text [pdf format, 44 pages]

“The history of the development of Islamic radicalism in Uzbekistan, and in Central Asia more generally, is a potentially contentious one. There is very little agreement either within the policy community in the United States or in Central Asia itself as to what Islamic radicalism is and who among devout Muslims should be considered as posing a threat to the secular regime.”

This paper attempts to answer some of these questions. It also offers an in-depth look at some prominent clerics from Uzbekistan who have been instrumental in the development of radical Islam in Uzbekistan. “It looks at their teachings, their teachers, and their influence on political and social behavior in Uzbekistan.”

DEMOCRATIZATION IN MALI: PUTTING HISTORY TO WORK.
Robert Pringle. United States Institute of Peace (USIP). October 2006.
Full report [pdf format, 84 pages]

This report documents the impressive route to democratization taken by Malians since the ouster of military dictator Moussa Traoré in 1991. According to the report, Mali has achieved a record of democratization that is among the best in Africa. The author begins by outlining those aspects of Mali's geography, history, and culture that are most relevant to its democratization. After a summary and analysis of Malian democracy's formative period, Pringle describes, based on interviews, the reasons Malians cite for the success to date of their democracy as well as its weaknesses as seen both by Malian and foreign observers.

This dialogue includes two issues of particular interest to outside observers: the status of Malian Islam and its relevance to democratization, and the problem of unrest in the desert north. The report touches on a number of important indicators of Malian democracy, including the status of women, the new role of the military, and the impact of democratization on the Niger Authority (Office du Niger), which was until recently an authoritarian state-within-a-state. There is significant coverage of the critical issue of decentralization, the debate surrounding it and the roles of mayors and other local leaders. The author also looks at struggles that Mali faces while strengthening its democracy, including a persistent problem with corruption. He briefly examines the implications of Malian democratization for neighboring countries before concluding with some suggestions for policymakers, both Malian and foreign.

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AMERICA'S DEMOCRATIZATION PROJECTS ABROAD
Kurth, James. (American Spectator, Vol. 39, No. 8, October 2006, pp. 40-47)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

The author examines the successes and failures of America's democratization projects abroad over the past century. Among the greatest success stories were in Germany and Japan after World War II and post-Cold War projects in Eastern Europe. There are many common factors in these successes: the countries involved were industrial and modern, had experienced total military defeat, had ethnically homogeneous populations and faced a greater foreign threat. The contrast between these nations, and the Middle East, where many democratization projects are failing, "could not be greater," says Kurth, who believes that democratization projects in Latin America have a promising future.

THE BACKLASH AGAINST DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE. A REPORT PREPARED BY THE NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY FOR SENATOR RICHARD G. LUGAR, CHAIRMAN, COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, UNITED STATES SENATE. National Endowment for Democracy (NED). June 8, 2006.
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This new report draws upon the experiences of National Endowment for Democracy (NED)'s grantees, including its four affiliated institutes, as well as the research of the International Center for Not for Profit Law (ICNL). The report asserts that in many countries, government efforts to constrain democracy assistance have recently intensified and now seriously impede democracy assistance. This official resistance or "backlash" is particularly pronounced in the former Soviet states of Eurasia, as well as in China, Venezuela, Egypt and Zimbabwe. Representatives of democracy assistance NGOs have been harassed, offices closed and staff expelled. Even more vulnerable are local grantees and project partners who have been threatened, assaulted, prosecuted, and imprisoned. Other government tactics include funding for anti-democratic forces, and the creation of officially sanctioned NGOs to frustrate genuine democratization.

Despite these developments, the report documents that the demand for democratic assistance is greater than ever, and it emphasizes that there is a long history of successful democracy assistance, even in very challenging circumstances. The report concludes with a number of recommendations for Congressional action to counter the new backlash. Among the recommendations that affect overseas missions are:

• "Congress should promote international broadcasting, including radio and webcasting, as well as Internet connectivity and e-mail programming, to authoritarian and backsliding regimes, as well as more traditional forms of book mailings and cultural exchanges. This could extend to the distribution of "social software" -cell phones, wireless laptops, etc.-to encourage engagement with grassroots and democratic forces."
• "While Congress should support increases in direct funding for democracy assistance programs, it should also consider encouraging forms of indirect or other forms of innovative funding, such as overseas study abroad programs with honoraria that can sustain activists on their return."
• "As a matter of course, and where security concerns permit, American embassies and visiting delegations should seek to engage and extend support to democratic and human rights activists, dissidents, and other appropriate figures."

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Friedman, Thomas L. THE FIRST LAW OF PETROPOLITICS (Foreign Policy, no. 154, May/June 2006, pp. 28-36)
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The author, a New York Times columnist, asserts that there is a strong inverse correlation between the price of crude oil and the level of freedoms in oil-producing countries. Friedman maps out the political and economic histories of nations he defines as "petrolist" states, countries with weak institutions where oil production accounts for the majority of GNP. As the price of crude oil rises, civil rights and democracy are eroded; these nations are flooded with so much oil revenue that the leadership can ignore the views of its citizens and foreign bodies with no economic consequences. In contrast, as oil dries up, nations move toward democracy and capitalism to diversify the economy and foster trade, as has been the case in Bahrain. Friedman concludes that oil-dependent nations need to seek alternative fuels not purely for environmental reasons, but also as a way to advance democracy and national security.

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Marr, Phebe. DEMOCRACY IN THE ROUGH
(Current History, vol. 105, no. 687, January 2006, pp. 27-33)
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The author describes the various players in Iraq's new democratic process, and discusses the January 2005 elections, which established a transitional assembly and produced two winners, the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of predominantly Shiite parties, and a more cohesive Kurdish party. The election highlighted regional, ethnic and sectarian patterns of voting, which was underscored when Iraqis voted in October on the draft constitution. The December 2005 election for a permanent assembly saw strong participation by the Sunni population, which was largely absent in the January election. The difficult process of forming a government lies ahead for the Iraqis, and it will determine the direction of the country. Marr surmises that the desire for power and control will win out over ideological orientation. Iraq has shifted to the politics of cultural identity; compromises will be difficult and will take time and may also require diplomatic pressure from outside.

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Cochran, John THE INFLUENCE IMPLOSION (CQ Weekly, vol. 64, no. 3, January 16, 2006, pp. 174-179)
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The author, writing in the aftermath of the Abramoff lobbying scandal, says lawmakers on Capitol Hill will continue to value and listen to lobbyists who provide reliable, honest information. There are more than 27,000 registered lobbyists in Washington, and lawmakers and congressional staff members say the vast majority are ethical, and spend their days immersed in the serious details of policy for their clients, not high-flying socializing and deal-making. The most important lesson from the Abramoff scandal is that members of Congress should not allow lobbyists to involve them in deals that have no connection to their home districts, or to draw them into issues in which they have no longstanding interest or expertise. Cochran also adds that lawmakers and lobbyists agree that, in the wake of the Abramoff scandal, lobbying practices based largely on relationships with specific members of Congress will wane; legislators and other clients will look for lobbyists who can offer substantive knowledge rather than access or connections.

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Dionne, Jr., E. J. WHY THE CULTURE WAR IS THE WRONG WAR (Atlantic Monthly, vol. 297, no. 1, January/February 2006, pp. 130-135)
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Syndicated columnist E. J. Dionne suggests positively that debates surrounding culture wars can be used to present ideal visions or fierce criticisms of the United States. Dionne, citing election exit polls, claims the country is not as polarized on important issues as journalists and political activists might contend. The real division in the nation, Dionne writes, is between those who want to have a culture war and those who don't. At election time, for example, politicians are either rallying the base or appealing to the center, preempting any real discussion of what "ails" American culture and society. Dionne says that Americans would be better off trying to find common ground by challenging the culture-war metaphor and, in the process, deflating the partisan posturing of liberals and conservatives.

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(Gerecht, Reuel Marc DEVOUT DEMOCRACIES (Weekly Standard, vol. 11, no. 16, January 2-9, 2006, pp. 29-32)
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The author, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that Afghanistan and Iraq are the Muslim world's most important democratic laboratories, and will have a great deal of impact on the Middle East as they wrestle with difficult questions of religion and governance. Americans can take pride in what the U.S. has done to improve life in Afghanistan, says Gerecht; although the country is poor, the economy is reviving, and an aesthetic sense is reappearing in architecture and public surroundings. In the Afghan parliament, representatives of different ethnic groups are conducting public affairs without violence, a major achievement. As in Afghanistan, we should not expect an Iraqi political system to be secular, Gerecht writes; the U.S. erred in supporting Muslim progressives and secular liberals in Iraq, all of whom fared poorly in the recent elections. What is important to recognize, notes Gerecht, is that political changes are now being made by the electorates of both countries. However, he fears that the recent increase in suicide bombings in Afghanistan threatens to distance Western forces and aid workers, who are indispensable to civil order and governance, from the local population.

STRATEGIES FOR PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ.
Eric Davis. United States Institute of Peace. October 2005.
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The Education Program at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is helping to rehabilitate the Iraqi higher education system by introducing courses in conflict resolution and peace education into university curricula throughout the country. This report suggests ways to involve the Iraqi higher education system in building and promoting democratic governance in Iraq.

The report's main points include the following:

• Social justice and economic development are essential for democracy in Iraq to succeed.
• Iraq has a tradition and history of democracy that can help promote the successful establishment of a democratic form of government in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.
• Sixty percent of the Iraqi population is younger than 25. They have only known authoritarian rule and need to learn about democracy. The older generation of former democratic activists can pass on to younger Iraqis their memories and experiences of pre-1963 Iraqi society.
• The establishment of an institution devoted to democracy could spread the concept of democratic government through workshops, contests, and grants to civil society organizations.
• Citizenship and service learning programs in Iraqi universities could promote democratic principles among older students. A national reading project and essay contest could introduce younger students to democracy and strengthen the literary skills necessary for an informed citizenry.
• The government should use the Internet's power to involve citizens in the democratic process and improve education. Television and radio programs, coffeehouse events, national "town hall" meetings, summer camps for youth, and emphasis on common folklore could help overcome ethnic differences and promote tolerance and unity among Iraq's diverse ethnic cultures.

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Ceaser, James W. FAITH IN DEMOCRACY (Weekly Standard, Vol. 11, No. 8 November 7, 2005, pp. 26-34)
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The outcome of democratic reform in the Middle East will rely on addressing the problems associated with the interactions of faith and politics, writes author James Ceaser. Western fears of Islamic fundamentalism in the past lead to ambivalence about democracy in the Middle East, he notes. Now, threats by fundamentalists, he says, has lead many to ask why the West should support democracy in many countries, such as Iraq, where elections may bring fundamentalists to power. According to the author, one solution to this dilemma is "to determine whether the fundamentalism vs. democracy dilemma is as intractable as many have depicted it."

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Zakheim, Dov. BLENDING DEMOCRACY (National Interest, No. 81, Fall 2005, pp. 40-48)
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The author writes that creating a true democracy in the Middle East is a long-term process and the result will mimic the American idea of what a democracy is. Zakheim provides examples of countries moving towards democracy but this movement will be a lengthy process. Cultural differences between the U.S. and the Middle East countries guarantee that any form of Middle Eastern democracy may not appear as a democracy at all to Westerners. The author contends that the Middle East needs a version of democracy that does not resemble that of Western countries but will offer people the same basic rights.

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Thomson, John R. A TALE OF THREE CITIES (National Interest, no. 81, Fall 2005, pp. 142-148)
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Thomson, a businessman, diplomat, and journalist who has lived and worked in the Middle East for more than three decades, describes the movement toward democracy in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Egypt. The real debate in the region is not whether there will be democracy but what form of democracy. During his recent travels to the region, Johnson has found reasons to feel optimistic. In Kabul, there have been successful elections by formerly fractious Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek ethnic groups, Sunni and Shi'a Muslims, and many smaller tribes and sects. In Beirut, there is a youth movement demonstrating to vote on the issues, not on religion. In Cairo, there is hope for a peaceful presidential transition based on elections.

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Alexander, Gerard. THERE ARE NO ALTERNATIVES TO THE "WESTERN" MODEL OF DEMOCRACY (World Affairs, Vol. 12, no. 1, Summer/Fall 2005, pp. 155-163)
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The author argues that there are no truly democratic alternatives to the "Western" model of democracy. Several core features of western democracies are the mechanisms that make officeholders accountable to citizens. There is a tradition of thinking that only elections are necessary to achieve accountability. However, elections labeled "democratic" have included ones dominated by a hegemonic ruling party such as the PRI in Mexico. Many governments that hold elections but do not practice other mechanisms for accomplishing accountability are often called "alternatives to Western democracy." However, these governments often end up being authoritarian. In order for elections to actually be free and fair, there must be basic rights such as the freedom of expression and the freedom to access alternative forms of information. These criteria make up the core features of Western democracies. They imply the necessary presence of free political parties, civil liberties, and an independent media. In order to deliver accountability, a large number of core features are indispensable and they are all currently found in "Western" democracies. The mechanisms that support democracies in the West are the same as the mechanisms that ensure governments will represent popular opinion in any country.

IN SUPPORT OF ARAB DEMOCRACY: WHY AND HOW.
Madeleine K. Albright and Vin Weber. Council on Foreign Relations. July 2005.
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Chaired by former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and former Representative Vin Weber, this independent task force considered whether promoting democracy in the Middle East is in the best interests of the United States and, if so, how Washington should implement such a policy. The Task Force concluded that notwithstanding short-term risks, democracy in the Middle East is a desirable goal. The report asserts that over the long run, the development of democratic institutions in Arab countries ''will diminish the appeal of extremism and terrorism, the risks of revolutionary upheaval, and the emergence of regimes openly hostile to the United States.''

Among the actions the report recommends the U.S. Government take to support Middle East Democracy are:

• Change US public diplomacy strategy by restoring funding for the Voice of America's Arabic service; and incorporate C-SPAN-style formats into some of the programming broadcast by the U.S. government-operated Arabic satellite channel, al-Hurra.
• Promote the expansion of the region's private media market.
• Seek the partnership of Arab, American, European, and Asian educational institutions, foundations, the private sector, and multilateral organizations to develop teacher-training programs, provide technical assistance to decentralize Arab educational systems, expand English language instruction, and establish lifelong learning through adult education.
• Improve procedures for allowing students from the Arab world to enter the United States, and promote partnerships between U.S. business and engineering schools and Arab educational institutions.
• Emphasize such basic principles as human rights, political representation, constitutional checks and balances, tolerance, rule of law, women's rights, and transparency of decision-making.
• Encourage Arab leaders to develop public, detailed ''pathways to reform'' that respond to the specific demands for change made by citizens within their countries.
• Provide assistance to improve regulatory environments, reform tax codes, and, remove barriers to intraregional trade in an effort to promote regional economic integration, along with negotiating trade and investment agreements.

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Dawisha, Adeed THE NEW IRAQ: DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND PERFORMANCE (Journal of Democracy, vol. 16, no. 3, July 2005, pp. 35-49)
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Dawisha, an Iraqi-born political science professor at Miami University, analyzes the key factors in overcoming Iraq's internal divisions in its transition toward democracy. He draws on events from the January 2005 elections to the present to discuss issues including power apportionment, political parties, federalism, the role of Islam, and women's rights. Although Iraq remains a "divided" country, Dawisha suggests that the current process of addressing and overcoming these divisions is crucial to Iraq's future as a democracy. "Whether Iraq goes up the rising path of democracy or down the falling road of division may very well lie in the bargaining, arguing, and political deal-making" that is going on now, states Dawisha.

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Ackerman, Peter; Duvall, Jack PEOPLE POWER PRIMED: CIVILIAN RESISTANCE AND DEMOCRATIZATION (Harvard International Review, vol. 27, no. 2, Summer 2005, pp. 42-47)
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Ackerman and Duvall, Chair and President respectively of the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict, explore the history and growing expression of mass public protest in deposing rulers. They note that "people power" succeeds when participants agree on short- and long-term goals. It also succeeds when there is ample discipline and organization, as was the case in Ukraine, Georgia, and Serbia. Another component for success is the need for a non-violent approach. This, the authors say, is crucial to garnering support from the majority of the population -- and it also is a good way to entice defections from "regime defenders". The authors also point out that a firmly rooted, non-violent movement can lead to a more consolidated democracy. As to the role of international pressure and assistance, there is no substitute for local understanding and expertise. International assistance is most effective in the form of general technical training such as classes in non-violent resistance and communications equipment.

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Diamond, Larry THE STATE OF DEMOCRATIZATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY (The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy, vol. VI, no. 1, Winter-Spring 2005, pp. 13-18)
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Diamond, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, describes the worldwide acceptance of democracy as the most legitimate form of government. Despite some nations backsliding from democracies to "semi-democracies" and expressions of anti-Americanism, there is no broad preference for a non-democratic form of government. Diamond states that new democracies must respond to the "triple crisis of governance" by controlling corruption, strengthening the rule of law, improving economic entrepreneurship, and managing ethnic and regional conflict. Diamond cites the Freedom House survey, "Freedom in the World," which states that the number of democracies is growing.

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Albright, Madeleine ARAB DEMOCRACY CAN'T HAVE AN AMERICAN STAMP ON IT (New Perspectives Quarterly, vol. 22, no. 2, Spring 2005, pp. 66-69)
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Albright, former Secretary of State under President Clinton, describes democracy as a process, not an event. With the spread of information globally, there is growing desire and support for democracy. The Iraqi election was very significant and a victory for the Iraqi people, but the process must continue with a government and a new constitution, which is a daunting task given the divisiveness within Iraq. Albright contends that "it is the right policy for the United States to stand for democracy and freedom." In the Arab world, Albright maintains that the US needs to trend lightly; democracy can't be imposed but must be locally inspired.

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Richards, Alan DEMOCRACY IN THE ARAB REGION: GETTING THERE FROM HERE (Middle East Policy, vol. 12, no. 2, Summer 2005, pp. 28-35)
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A "democracy deficit" in the Arab world has led to a "freedom deficit" reinforced by internal and external obstacles, notes Richards, professor of economics and environmental studies at the University of California in Santa Cruz. Richards notes that who will effect democratic transition, and how will such a transition occur, are two key questions that must be asked about the Arab region. He argues that a sufficient number of reformers must exist within a ruling regime, and that these reformers must hold some sway over military and security officials; moderate reformers must also restrain their radical colleagues. But Richards notes that attaining these conditions has been constrained by historical forces. First, the armed forces have traditionally wielded considerable power in Arab countries, and are often staffed by hard-liners and are a byproduct of Arab resistance to European colonialism and Cold War politics. Second, steady oil revenues mean that Arab regimes have little incentive to pay attention to the needs of ordinary citizens. The challenge for the U.S. is whether or not to support opposition groups that in most Arab countries are based on political Islam. For starters, he recommends that Washington must reverse its policy of unilateral military intervention, but he also suggests that it modify its opposition to democratic accession to power of political Islam.

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Cochran, John A GOVERNMENT OUT OF TOUCH (CQ Weekly Report, vol. 63, no. 27, July 4, 2005, pp. 1804-1811)
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Cochran, a staff writer for CQ Weekly Report, describes the chasm between the public's concerns and the issues discussed and legislated in Congress. Special interest groups, changes in redistricting which carve out clear Republican or Democratic winners, and changes within the political parties have moved the discourse from the public's middle of the road concerns to the concerns of the fringes on both sides. Polls are now used to figure out how to package the special interest group's policies rather than figure out the public's concerns. The article describes theories of political scientists to improve the current situation.

BEYOND RED VS. BLUE: REPUBLICANS DIVIDED ABOUT ROLE OF GOVERNMENT - DEMOCRATS BY SOCIAL AND PERSONAL VALUES.
Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. May 10, 2005.
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This report analyzes differences among those in the United States who identify themselves as Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Further, the "political typology" section distinguishes eight different types of politically engaged persons in addition to the "Bystanders", or those uninterested in political matters. These types or groups are defined by their attitudes toward government and politics and a range of other social, economic and religious beliefs. In addition to partisan leanings and self-reported ideology, the typology is based on eight value orientations, each of which is reflected by a scale derived from two or more questions in the survey. They are as follows:

• Foreign Policy Assertiveness -- Opinions on the efficacy of military strength vs. diplomacy, use of force to defeat terrorism, and Americans' duty to serve in the military.
• Religion and Morality -- Attitudes concerning the importance of religion in people's lives, the government's role in protecting morality, and social issues such as homosexuality.
• Environmentalism and Regulation -- Beliefs about the costs and benefits of government regulation of business to protect the environment or the public interest.
• Social Welfare -- Beliefs about the role of government in providing for the poor and needy.
• Immigration -- Views concerning the impact of immigrants on American culture and the U.S. economy.
• Business Sentiment -- Attitudes about the influence of business in American society.
• Financial Security -- Level of satisfaction with current economic status and feelings of financial security.
• Anti-Government Sentiment -- Beliefs about the responsiveness of elected officials, and views about government performance.
• Individualism -- Beliefs about whether all individuals have it within their power to succeed, or whether success is beyond a person's control.

According to the most recent survey data, foreign affairs assertiveness now almost completely distinguishes Republican-oriented voters from Democratic-oriented voters; this was a relatively minor factor in past typologies. The surveys show that Republicans also have much in common beyond their overwhelming support for a muscular foreign policy and broad agreement on social issues. Voters inclined toward the Republican Party are distinguished from Democrats by their personal optimism and belief in the power of the individual. While some voting blocs on the right are as financially stressed as poorer Democrats, Republicans in this situation tend to be more hopeful and positive in their outlook than their more fatalistic counterparts in the Democratic Party.

National security attitudes also generally unite the Democrats, according to the survey data. Beyond their staunch opposition to the war in Iraq, Democrats overwhelmingly believe that effective diplomacy, rather than military strength, should serve as the basis for U.S. security policy. At home, Democrats remain committed to a strong social safety net and are joined in opposition to most domestic policy proposals from the Bush administration, from tougher bankruptcy laws to private accounts in Social Security.

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MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRACY: WHO GETS THE CREDIT? WHAT ARE THE LESSONS? (Washington Monthly, vol. 37, no. 5, May 2005, pp. 20-31)
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In this series of articles on the possibility of democratic change in the Middle East, several authors weigh in with their opinions. Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) writes in CREDIT BUSH'S RHETORIC, NOT HIS ACTIONS that there is still a significant gap between the president's public statements and his policies. Gen. Wesley Clark notes in WAR DIDN'T, AND DOESN'T, BRING DEMOCRACY that many hopeful events that have recently taken place in the Middle East were more directly the result of a local event than from U.S. policy. CATO Institute scholar Jonathan Clarke states in CREDIT, DESERVED OR NOT, GOES TO THE WINNER that democracy in Iraq could just as easily generate another dictator. National Interest editor Nikolas Gvosdev writes in WAR WAS A CATALYST, BUT FOR WHAT? that the U.S. tends to forget that democracy must appeal to people's interests, not just their aspirations. Ex-Clinton White House official Heather Hurlburt notes in EVERYTHING BUT WAR MADE THE DIFFERENCE that democracy comes slowly, after years of opposition and international support have worn down authoritarian regimes. Ex-Clinton official Nancy Soderberg concludes in TURNS OUT DIPLOMACY WORKS that the results of unilateralist policies of the last few years are that the U.S. is bearing the cost of rebuilding and securing Iraq on its own.

EVALUATING PALESTINIAN REFORM. [Carnegie Paper No. 59]
Nathan Brown. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP). June 2005; Web-posted May 23, 2005.
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If one looks at a description of Palestine ("Palestine on paper"), says the author of this report, it is a model liberal democracy. Citizens have rights of free speech and free assembly. The most independent judiciary in the Arab world adjudicates their disputes. Palestinians select their leaders freely in competitive elections overseen by an independent electoral commission. A representative assembly monitors the executive, granting and withholding confidence from ministers and reviewing the state budget in detailed public discussions. Elected councils manage local governments that are fiscally autonomous of the center.

Brown continues his analysis with a discussion of the most significant flaw of this view of Palestine: "[I]t does not exist. This is true in two senses. First, Palestinians on the West Bank and Gaza are governed in many of their internal affairs by the Palestinian Authority (PA), an uncertain political hybrid that falls far short of sovereignty. This situation creates enormous obstacles that are well known -- Palestine is still a political entity struggling to come into existence in the midst of one of the world's most intractable national conflicts. And, second, domestic problems as well as international obstacles have blocked the emergence of a liberal, democratic Palestine. Though widely acknowledged, these domestic obstacles are less well understood. Palestine on paper shows the Arab world a different kind of politics, one that avoids the authoritarian, unaccountable, and highly centralized practices prevailing in the region, but it has failed to build the institutions to give this politics full substance."

PROMOTING MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRACY II: ARAB INITIATIVES. [USIP Special Report No. 136]
Mona Yacoubian. United States Institute of Peace (USIP). May 2005.
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The Arab League, individual governments, and nongovernmental organizations in the Arab world have all issued statements or declarations on the need for governance reform, especially in the area of increased democracy. The author believes that while some of these initiatives seem more cosmetic than genuine, the net effect has been to open an unprecedented dialogue on reform. This report reviews and analyzes the components of reform as proposed by those in the region. It ends with some overarching conclusions on Arab reform efforts as well as recommendations for U.S. policymakers. With regard to the latter, she offers the following thoughts:

• "U.S. engagement on reform promotion should be quiet yet consistent. However, given flagging U.S. credibility in the region, any public endorsement of specific initiatives could doom them to failure. Indeed, restoring and strengthening U.S credibility in the region should be the primary objective for U.S. policymakers."
• "For now, the United States should seek to buffer its direct engagement on reform promotion by working in closer cooperation with European allies and through the establishment of a quasi-public Middle East foundation. As well, U.S. officials should employ quiet yet forceful diplomacy to pressure governments to roll back repressive measures such as arresting reformers, banning opposition parties, and censoring the media.

NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2005: RUSSIA.
Robert W. Orttung. Freedom House. Web-posted May 4, 2005.
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Note: This report on Russia is excerpted from the forthcoming larger report "Nations in Transit 2005". "Nations in Transit", published annually by Freedom House, is a comparative, multidimensional study focusing on 27 former Communist states. Contains copyrighted material.

Among the findings that support the rankings in this report are the following:

• "Russia's rating for national democratic governance is set at 5.75. [President] Putin has no plan to address the separatist conflict in Chechnya beyond continued violence and no comprehensive policy for handling the challenges of terrorism. A further concentration of political and economic power offers little hope for providing realistic solutions."
• "Russia's rating for electoral process declines from 5.50 to 6.00 because of the many violations in the presidential elections, the weakening position of opposition parties in the country, and a new Law on Referendums that makes grassroots initiatives virtually impossible."
• "Russia's rating for civil society declines from 4.50 to 4.75 because of increased state attempts to control this sector of society and the growing climate of fear, as well as the continued development of extremist groups and the number of extremist attacks."
• "Russia's rating for independent media drops from 5.75 to 6.00 because the Kremlin has extended its management of television broadcasts, while journalists face an increased threat of expensive libel cases and many reporters work in unsafe conditions."
• "Russia's rating for local democratic governance is set at 5.75 because in 2004 the Putin Kremlin abolished gubernatorial elections. The reduced role for regional level public oversight exercised through the ballot box and basic principles of federalism were additional factors."
• "Russia's rating for judicial framework and independence slips from 4.75 to 5.25. Although the courts are increasingly providing citizens with an opportunity to redress wrongs committed by the state, they were even more vulnerable in 2004 to manipulation by the state in key cases."
• "Russia's rating for corruption remains unchanged at 5.75 because the country and its political leaders seem to lack the political will to address the problem in a comprehensive manner."

COUNTRIES AT THE CROSSROADS 2005: RUSSIA.
Michael McFaul, with Sanja Tatic. Freedom House. Web-posted May 4, 2005.
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Note: This report on Russia is excerpted from the forthcoming larger report "Countries at the Crossroads 2005". Contains copyrighted material.

The "Countries at the Crossroads" volumes accord countries with scores in the following indicators of democratization: Accountability and Public Voice; Civil Liberties; Rule of Law; Anticorruption and Transparency. In all of these categories the authors excoriate Russia's President Putin, saying that he "has systematically weakened or destroyed every check on his power, while at the same time strengthening the state's ability to violate the constitutional rights of individual citizens. He has weakened the power of Russia's regional leaders, the independent media, the business community or oligarchs, both houses of parliament, the Russian prime minister and his government (as opposed to the presidential administration), independent political parties, and genuine civil society. At the same time, he has increased the role of the federal security service (FSB, the successor to the KGB) in governing Russia and arbitrarily wielded the power of state institutions such as the courts, the tax inspectors, and the police for political ends."

In the "Accountability and Public Voice" category, McFaul and Tatic offer the following recommendations:

• Direct elections for governors should be reinstated.
• Direct elections for members of the Federation Council should be reinstated.
• The mixed electoral system for the State Duma, first adopted in 1993, should be reinstated, including the 5-percent threshold on the PR ballot.
• Channel 1 (ORT) should be privatized and Channel 2 (RTR) should be transformed into a public television station, complete with an independent board to help safeguard against political interference.

In the "Anticorruption and Transparency" section are the following recommendations:

• Senior government officials should be barred from serving in management capacities in companies owned by the state.
• All government expenditures and revenues, including transfers between regional and federal authorities, must be made public and preferably posted on the Web.
• Anticorruption NGOs must be granted greater access to government procedures and information.
• A serious freedom of information law must be passed and enforced.
• Creating more permissive conditions for the expansion of both a free press and powerful opposition parties are reforms necessary for more effectively fighting corruption in Russia.

AA05089
Barone, Michael AMERICAN POLITICS IN THE NETWORKING ERA (National Journal, vol. 37, no. 9, February 26, 2005, pp. 590-596)
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Barone, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report, notes that both the Democratic and Republican parties brought out a record voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election. However, the Bush-Cheney campaign spent an extraordinary amount of energy and money on networking -- making connections with voters through personal contact and building upon existing connections by recruiting volunteers who could persuade people with whom they had something in common to get out and vote. The Democratic strategy, by contrast, depended on paid workers persuading strangers to vote. Barone believes that in industrial, command-and-control America, the Democrats' method may have been effective, but in information-age, networking America, the Republicans' strategy worked better. Even though the Republicans won't have an incumbent to put forth for the 2008 campaign, the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign "created a quantum of social-connectedness ... [that will be] a long-lasting asset for the Republican Party."

AA05092
Muravchik, Joshua AND THE WALLS CAME TUMBLING DOWN (The American Enterprise, Vol. 26, No. 3, April-May 2005, pp. 32-34, 28)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Muravchik, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, describes the worldwide movement towards democracy and particularly recent changes in the Middle East. Experts wrongly advised that democracy couldn't work in Japan in the post-World War II era. Muravchik argues that the Middle East will not remain a bastion of autocracy, and that there are positive signs from diverse groups that there is a movement toward democracy. He calls 2005 "the year of Arab election" and says that democracy is arriving in unexpected spurts.

THE INTERNET AND CAMPAIGN 2004.
Pew Internet & American Life Project and Pew Research Center for The People & The Press. March 6, 2005.
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The internet was a key force in politics last year as 75 million Americans used it to get news, discuss candidates in emails, and participate directly in the political process. The online political news consumer population grew dramatically from 18% of the U.S. population in 2000 to 29% in 2004. For campaign 2004, some of the overall figures related to uses of the internet for politics are these:

• 52% of internet users, or about 63 million people, said they went online to get news or information about the 2004 elections.
• 35% of internet users, or about 43 million people, said they used email to discuss politics, and one of the most popular email subjects was jokes about the candidates and the election.
• 11% of internet users, or more than 13 million people, went online to engage directly in campaign activities such as donating money, volunteering, or learning about political events to attend.
• 34 million people went online to research candidate positions on issues - a 42% increase from 2000.
• 14 million people got information via the internet on where to vote - a 180% increase from 2000.

AA05074
Cochran, John FINDING FAITH IN THE CENTER (CQ Weekly Report, Vol. 63, No. 10, March 7, 2005, pp. 563-569)
Full text available from your nearest American Library

Cochran, a journalist, writes that the Democrats have allowed the Republicans to use religious and moral issues to portray them as a liberal secular elite out of touch with mainstream values. He cites Pew polls on religion and politics, John White, author of "The Values Divide" and left-leaning Jim Wallis, an evangelical activist, to further his argument that the Republicans have been effective in negatively defining the Democrats. Cochran argues that the Democrats might be wise to recast issues with a values vocabulary to connect with the religious voter.

IRAQ: WITHOUT CONSENSUS, DEMOCRACY IS NOT THE ANSWER. [Carnegie Policy Brief No. 36]
Marina Ottaway. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. March 2005.
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The Iraqi elections were a success, says the author of this report, but they do not ensure that Iraqis can now agree on a constitutional formula that accommodates the demands of all groups and keeps the country together. Democracy as separation of powers, checks and balances, and protection of individual rights has not proven enough to avoid conflict in other deeply divided societies. Ottaway stresses that Iraqis will have to confront their differences and negotiate solution for democracy to thrive. If they fail, she claims, the United States will be faced with a choice of whether to keep the country together by force or get out-and it is better to find out sooner rather than later.

Note: Contains copyrighted material.

AA05031
Reynolds, Andrew CONSTITUTIONAL MEDICINE (Journal of Democracy, vol. 16, no. 1, January 2005, pp. 54-68)
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Reynolds, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, uses the methodology of medical diagnosis and treatment to describe the progress of nations struggling to move toward democratization. Reynolds asserts that constitutional design is at the heart of efforts to bring peace and self-government to some of the world's most troubled lands. The constitutional expert looks at an ailing society and tries to map a path to long-term health (robust levels of peace, prosperity and self-government). Reynolds suggests that the medical model with five steps could be adapted to create a meaningful diagnosis when based on sound case-by-case judgments.